Absolute Vorticity

Bottomed out at 20 here in the Burg

What a weird December.

Hi everyone!

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:50 am What a weird December.

Hi everyone!

Glad you're back, MJ.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:59 am

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:50 am What a weird December.

Hi everyone!

Glad you're back, MJ.

Looking ahead... after the 1/6 potential, I'm still going with the 40s this weekend and rain Sat night into Sun. Then we drop again for early next week. I don't think yet what form systems will take during the Jan 13-16th period (a couple of smaller systems or one big one) but I think some action during this time frame will be possible ahead of yet another push of arctic air. I think the potential for a big storm is there. No idea for who obviously this early but I've liked the mid month period for a while now as a time frame to watch.

The below map shows total snowfall for the last 60 days:


As you can see, there is a typical OV Screw Job going on.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:08 pm Looking ahead... after the 1/6 potential, I'm still going with the 40s this weekend and rain Sat night into Sun. Then we drop again for early next week. I don't think yet what form systems will take during the Jan 13-16th period (a couple of smaller systems or one big one) but I think some action during this time frame will be possible ahead of yet another push of arctic air. I think the potential for a big storm is there. No idea for who obviously this early but I've liked the mid month period for a while now as a time frame to watch.

500mb looks ripe for opportunities , agree. Aleutian low (finally) pumping up the Coastal ridge for maybe a couple weeks , after this weekend of course.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:55 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:08 pm Looking ahead... after the 1/6 potential, I'm still going with the 40s this weekend and rain Sat night into Sun. Then we drop again for early next week. I don't think yet what form systems will take during the Jan 13-16th period (a couple of smaller systems or one big one) but I think some action during this time frame will be possible ahead of yet another push of arctic air. I think the potential for a big storm is there. No idea for who obviously this early but I've liked the mid month period for a while now as a time frame to watch.

500mb looks ripe for opportunities , agree. Aleutian low (finally) pumping up the Coastal ridge for maybe a couple weeks , after this weekend of course.

Exactly and I like the spot of the PNA ridge too once it develops.

Upper Yukon valley. Through 7am AKST Tuesday, down to -58F (-50.0C) at the Eagle airport, which is the lowest temperature there since January 2012. Coal Creek -57F (-49.4C) and -53F (-47.2C) at Ft. Yukon.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:25 pm Upper Yukon valley. Through 7am AKST Tuesday, down to -58F (-50.0C) at the Eagle airport, which is the lowest temperature there since January 2012. Coal Creek -57F (-49.4C) and -53F (-47.2C) at Ft. Yukon.

That is exactly where we like to see the cold this time of year. Just see if we can find a way to transport some of that cold down here. They have had such a wonderful year in terms of snow and recent snows that the cold loves fresh and deep snow cover. I saw the QBO went even more negative in December which is not good but my guess is that happened earlier in the month and expect a rise with the QBO by the end of this month.

QBO is down to -21.58 for Dec. Still mod negative. Don't want to see it drop further though. A level off or a slow rise from here is just fine.

Folks... if you've been paying attn to the 1/6 thread, you know the news is not good to break out the shovels unless you're in the far S / SE. I do think the chance is still there for those guys. Anyway... Other then the warm up this weekend and shot of rain, the pattern before and after this weekend looks cold. Cold air is not a problem for weather systems for the next 2 weeks at least IMO. Pattern looks good hemispherically. It all comes down to meso scale features and individual things going on in the flow. That impacts how winter storms develop. How fast and where. Last system was under modeled that got DC and the Mid ATL. Ours was over modeled by some guidance.

Anyway, we'll see how mid month shapes up. I'm eye balling 1/13-1/16 for either one big storm or two smaller ones. We're playing with rain with the big storm idea but smoking cirrus with the weaker versions. Whatddayado?

This is some really good weather geek long range stuff from a poster on another weather board. AmericanWx. From this posters Twitter page:

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:56 pm This is some really good weather geek long range stuff from a poster on another weather board. AmericanWx. From this posters Twitter page:

Nice summary, he's sees the same thing we see at 500mb for the next 2 weeks. As far as the jet stream goes, what I like is the split flow over those weeks, with the polar jet stream and sub tropical jet both entering the lower 48 with a huge supply of Arctic air on the polar jet coattails. Which is a volatile, big storm potential for someone east of the Mississippi. Never had that last year, imo

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:26 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:56 pm This is some really good weather geek long range stuff from a poster on another weather board. AmericanWx. From this posters Twitter page:

Nice summary, he's sees the same thing we see at 500mb for the next 2 weeks. As far as the jet stream goes, what I like is the split flow over those weeks, with the polar jet stream and sub tropical jet both entering the lower 48 with a huge supply of Arctic air on the polar jet coattails. Which is a volatile, big storm potential for someone east of the Mississippi. Never had that last year, imo

I totally agree. Waiting to see if a big storm can form along the next advancing arctic airmass around the mid month period. We may or may not be involved, but that time period really for the last week has interested me.

Will talk very little about the next 2 weeks but Les is correct that we will have cold air in the area. Storm chances very seldom pop up this early and over the next several days expect the models to start picking up on certain pieces of energy and the time period where we have chances of winter weather will change quickly. So more of a heads up on this that pattern is good and we just need to wait for these pieces of energy and see which ones ramp up.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:12 am Will talk very little about the next 2 weeks but Les is correct that we will have cold air in the area. Storm chances very seldom pop up this early and over the next several days expect the models to start picking up on certain pieces of energy and the time period where we have chances of winter weather will change quickly. So more of a heads up on this that pattern is good and we just need to wait for these pieces of energy and see which ones ramp up.

Perfectly stated Tim... that was exactly my point.

12Z GFS looks really good guys... a nice pattern. cold and active. That's all you can ask for and hope things time out for a couple of decent or 1 nice big system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:36 pm The below map shows total snowfall for the last 60 days:


season_snowfall.thumb.png.54a9036aea85e0988ecb2f1450faccd8.png


As you can see, there is a typical OV Screw Job going on.

give it a few weeks it will get filled in

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:32 pm 12Z GFS looks really good guys... a nice pattern. cold and active. That's all you can ask for and hope things time out for a couple of decent or 1 nice big system.

Can we put this January thread on the "Big Daddy Watch" for something really big this month? I'm going to be optimistic on this!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:32 pm 12Z GFS looks really good guys... a nice pattern. cold and active. That's all you can ask for and hope things time out for a couple of decent or 1 nice big system.

Can we put this January thread on the "Big Daddy Watch" for something really big this month? I'm going to be optimistic on this!

I'm optimistic too! I like what I'm seeing the next few weeks. Just need a bit of luck and we should have quite a bit to track.

Euro has something to watch in the 15-16 period as well. Eh, it will either be a cutter or a dixie snowstorm probably!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:28 pm Euro has something to watch in the 15-16 period as well. Eh, it will either be a cutter or a dixie snowstorm probably!

Some of the long term data like from the EPS liked the East Coast as well. Someone East of the MS I think has a shot at a nice storm as we approach mid month. That is my next time period to watch. 13-16th.

Saw where Chicken, AK reported a low of minus 60 this morning.....coldest in Alaska this winter so far. Cold air keep building up!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:03 pm Saw where Chicken, AK reported a low of minus 60 this morning.....coldest in Alaska this winter so far. Cold air keep building up!

Fantastic! Plenty of cold as long as the -EPO / +PNA combo holds for us to work with.