West Pac Typhoon Season Discussion

[tron777]

In addition to Super Typhoon Noru, we have 96W which has a high chance of development.

[tron777]

Noru is down to just a typhoon now. This one is still expected to track west and get SE Asia. We also can welcome TS Kulap to the board. This one is expected to become a typhoon then recurve NE of Japan and not bother anyone.

[tpweather]

The west pac has no doubt been busy in recent weeks and really more towards a normal season compared to the very low numbers the last few years.

[tron777]

The west pac has no doubt been busy in recent weeks and really more towards a normal season compared to the very low numbers the last few years.

Yeah... it would really help add to the global ACE. We've seen two super typhoons already. Much more activity to come typically in the Fall and even into December some years.

[tpweather]

The west pac has no doubt been busy in recent weeks and really more towards a normal season compared to the very low numbers the last few years.

Yeah... it would really help add to the global ACE. We've seen two super typhoons already. Much more activity to come typically in the Fall and even into December some years.

Les I truly believe with the La Nina the past couple of years this has led to a lower than normal totals in terms of tropical activity. With the recent uptick Mother Nature may be telling us something and that could be La Nina is coming to an end. How quickly that happens could have a huge impact on the upcoming winter. We tend to look at longer term models and they are wonderful to use but Mother Nature herself is a better model but sometimes very hard to figure out.

[tron777]

The west pac has no doubt been busy in recent weeks and really more towards a normal season compared to the very low numbers the last few years.

Yeah... it would really help add to the global ACE. We've seen two super typhoons already. Much more activity to come typically in the Fall and even into December some years.

Les I truly believe with the La Nina the past couple of years this has led to a lower than normal totals in terms of tropical activity. With the recent uptick Mother Nature may be telling us something and that could be La Nina is coming to an end. How quickly that happens could have a huge impact on the upcoming winter. We tend to look at longer term models and they are wonderful to use but Mother Nature herself is a better model but sometimes very hard to figure out.

I think the Nina will strengthen into November then begin to weaken in December and become neutral by late spring or early summer of 2023. Possible Nino for next Fall / Winter. Those are kind of my thoughts on where ENSO will go.

[tpweather]

Les I really have no ideal when the changes occur. I just believe models are not very good at this and part of problem is lack of info. I try to look at different signs and how the weather is reacting but again trying to keep up with mother nature and also figuring out her plan can be tough as well.

[tron777]

3 systems on the board... Typhoon Noru, TS Kulap, and now 97W has a medium chance of development.

[tron777]

20W is now TS Roke. This system will remain a TS and recurve NE of Japan.

[tron777]

98W has a low chance of development.

[tron777]

98W now has a medium chance to develop. 97W has a low chance.

[tron777]

We have 4 waves here... Chances of development are listed below.

90W - Low
97W - Medium
98W - High
99W - High

[tron777]

Waves 90 and 97W still have a medium chance to develop. We also have a new depression TD 21W. This one is expected to become a TS but remain weak and move north bound not bothering anyone.

[tron777]

In addition to TD 21W, we have TD 22W now. This one will become a TS and strike Vietnam. A third system, 97W also has a high chance of development.

[tron777]

West PAC continues to be the busiest area tropically speaking. We have TS 21W, TS Sonca, TD 23W and Wave 91W (Med. chance of development).

21W - Dissipating, probably one of the last posts.
TS Sonca - Soon to make landfall in Vietnam
23W - Going thru the N Philippine Islands now. Will become a typhoon and later potentially hit SE Asia well N of Vietnam (Probably Laos or Cambodia).

[tron777]

23W is now typhoon Nesat. No changes to the last post in terms of track. 91W now has a high chance of development as well.

[tron777]

Typhoon Nesat is almost ready to make landfall now in SE Asia. TD 24 W is now out there and is expected to become a TS and not bother anyone. We also have waves 92B and 92W that have low chances of development.

[tron777]

TD 24 W is now TS Haitang.

[tron777]

TD 25W is out there now. This one is expected to become a TS and move in-between Taiwan and the Philippines eventually moving SW into Vietnam down the road.

[tron777]

93W has a high chance of development and may become the next typhoon.

[tron777]

Everyone say hello to TS Nalgae.


https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2622.gif

[tpweather]

Nice little surge to the west pac and they have been so far behind the last few years.

[tron777]

Typhoon Nalgae will impact the N Philippines today then get back into the S China Sea to impact China later on. We also have TS 27W which maybe the next system to impact the S Philippine islands.

[tron777]

Typhoon Nalgae will be making landfall in the next day or two S of Hong Kong. We also have TD 27W now known as Banyan to deal with. This storm is remaining weak at this time as it slowly moves west towards the Philippines.

[tron777]

TS 28W otherwise known as Yamaneko, is moving towards the north over the open West PAC waters and not expected to bother anyone at this time.