Absolute Vorticity

We now have TS Blas: (Was formally TD 2 E)

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 102.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.3N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

TS Blas has winds of 65 mph this morning. The wave behind it has a 60% chance of development now.

Looks like Blas is now a Cat 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds.

Hurricane Blas has winds of 85 this morning. It is expected to peak at around 90 before slowing weakening. The tropical wave behind it now has an 80% chance of development and it is likely going to be the next one in the East PAC.

Blas has weakened into a TS now continuing to move away from land. TD Celia will regain it's TS status soon and continue to move away from the Central American coast.

Both systems are currently at a TD status as of this morning.

TD Celia with winds of 35 mph this morning is the only remaining system to talk about. It will eventually become a TS and a hurricane by this weekend. No issues to land are expected at this time.

Celia is back to a TS now with winds of 45 mph. Still expecting a hurricane by this weekend then a weakening state next week.

Celia has winds of 50 mph. No changes to the ongoing forecast.

Celia has winds of 65 mph. This system is no longer expected to become a hurricane and will eventually die a slow death once it gets over the colder waters of the Eastern Pacific.

Celia has winds of 50 mph this morning as the weakening process continues.

Besides a weakening Celia, we have a new wave coming off the Central American coast that has a 30% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

Celia is a TD and we can almost say good-bye to that one. Next wave is now up to a 50% chance of development.

Only game in town now is the next wave showing a 70% chance now. Should be the next one to get named in the East Pac.

Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 97.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...BONNIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 103.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

Bonnie has winds of 90 mph. The wave behind her now has a 70% chance in the next 5 days.

Bonnie is fading... now down to a TS with winds of 50 mph. The wave behind her is likely to get a name shortly... 90% chance.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

...DARBY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 117.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


TS Darby is expected to become a hurricane but not bother anyone.

Darby is a hurricane with winds of 105 this morning. This one could briefly become a Cat 3, or major hurricane before weakening down the road.

Darby is a major hurricane with winds of 125. It is now expected to become a Cat 4 prior to weakening.

Darby has winds of 140 mph now... a Cat 4. Next wave off the Mexican Coast has a 70% chance in the next 5 days.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 6:29 am Darby has winds of 140 mph now... a Cat 4. Next wave off the Mexican Coast has a 70% chance in the next 5 days.

Beautiful storm on satellite!

Those are the ones, like seeing a tornado in a field, pretty to look at and learn from, but not hurting or harming people / property.

Darby is weakening, down to 100 mph. The next wave has an 80% chance now in the next 5 days.