Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:04 am Seeing some light rain here this morning. Dome already showing some weakness!

EDIT: Les - you and are on the same page this morning! Was just typing this when I saw your reply. LOL

We both have stubborn Domes, what else can I say?

Sooner or later even my dome succumbs to the elements. With winter fast approaching now is a good time for it to take about a 6 month hibernation!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:15 am Sooner or later even my dome succumbs to the elements. With winter fast approaching now is a good time for it to take about a 6 month hibernation!

You got that right!

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/10/06/goode- ... -blog-106/

I might be the outcast, but I struggle to see “flooding warmth” after the middle to end of next week. Big, classic mid latitude cyclone next week gets the ball rolling. My Oct 12 ideas for a long time, if you are on my FB page. This sets up the weakness and with what at least so far is “modest” blocking signature up in the Davis Straits/Greenland area, cooling should happen. It is not big cold and snow, yet, but the gradual cooling pattern with each system.

This might be where I am too fast, but by the last week of October, a colder storm and possibly some flakes in the region by end of the month. Nothing exciting, but backend drizzle and flurries and mid 30s with a quick crash at 850 that leads to a threat.

Josh

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:05 am I might be the outcast, but I struggle to see “flooding warmth” after the middle to end of next week. Big, classic mid latitude cyclone next week gets the ball rolling. My Oct 12 ideas for a long time, if you are on my FB page. This sets up the weakness and with what at least so far is “modest” blocking signature up in the Davis Straits/Greenland area, cooling should happen. It is not big cold and snow, yet, but the gradual cooling pattern with each system.

This might be where I am too fast, but by the last week of October, a colder storm and possibly some flakes in the region by end of the month. Nothing exciting, but backend drizzle and flurries and mid 30s with a quick crash at 850 that leads to a threat.

Josh

Yes Sir! I do follow you on FB and I know your stance on this. I am going warm thru 10/20 then will re-evaluate if need be. If correct, then yeah, the last week to 10 days of the month should turn colder and some flakes possible. I think we are on the same page here, just a difference in timing. That is to be expected. I like your Tropical idea too with something possibly spinning up in the Caribbean.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:55 am

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:05 am I might be the outcast, but I struggle to see “flooding warmth” after the middle to end of next week. Big, classic mid latitude cyclone next week gets the ball rolling. My Oct 12 ideas for a long time, if you are on my FB page. This sets up the weakness and with what at least so far is “modest” blocking signature up in the Davis Straits/Greenland area, cooling should happen. It is not big cold and snow, yet, but the gradual cooling pattern with each system.

This might be where I am too fast, but by the last week of October, a colder storm and possibly some flakes in the region by end of the month. Nothing exciting, but backend drizzle and flurries and mid 30s with a quick crash at 850 that leads to a threat.

Josh

Yes Sir! I do follow you on FB and I know your stance on this. I am going warm thru 10/20 then will re-evaluate if need be. If correct, then yeah, the last week to 10 days of the month should turn colder and some flakes possible. I think we are on the same page here, just a difference in timing. That is to be expected. I like your Tropical idea too with something possibly spinning up in the Caribbean.

I don’t think we are that far off in timing, either. I think the impression some get is 80 on the 11th, 50 on the 12th but I was more in the camp of somewhere around the 12th this pattern evolves and we cool a bit with each system. So hopefully that clears up a bit of potential vagueness. I do think I am too fast with a big chill shot, it is more of a small shot, then another, then another, not one big shot. So that is probably where I went too fast.

Josh

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 12:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:55 am

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:05 am I might be the outcast, but I struggle to see “flooding warmth” after the middle to end of next week. Big, classic mid latitude cyclone next week gets the ball rolling. My Oct 12 ideas for a long time, if you are on my FB page. This sets up the weakness and with what at least so far is “modest” blocking signature up in the Davis Straits/Greenland area, cooling should happen. It is not big cold and snow, yet, but the gradual cooling pattern with each system.

This might be where I am too fast, but by the last week of October, a colder storm and possibly some flakes in the region by end of the month. Nothing exciting, but backend drizzle and flurries and mid 30s with a quick crash at 850 that leads to a threat.

Josh

Yes Sir! I do follow you on FB and I know your stance on this. I am going warm thru 10/20 then will re-evaluate if need be. If correct, then yeah, the last week to 10 days of the month should turn colder and some flakes possible. I think we are on the same page here, just a difference in timing. That is to be expected. I like your Tropical idea too with something possibly spinning up in the Caribbean.

I don’t think we are that far off in timing, either. I think the impression some get is 80 on the 11th, 50 on the 12th but I was more in the camp of somewhere around the 12th this pattern evolves and we cool a bit with each system. So hopefully that clears up a bit of potential vagueness. I do think I am too fast with a big chill shot, it is more of a small shot, then another, then another, not one big shot. So that is probably where I went too fast.

Josh

Exactly. I believe you've mentioned several times of a step down approach and that looks good to me. Using CVG's averages for this post, which as of today are 71 / 50, by mid Oct, you're probably looking at the 70s as being above normal by then and the 80s would really be much above normal if not pushing records. Currently, we're going to be running 10 degrees above avg which is warm, but not unheard of for us in October. Watch for severe wx too, although next week, I suspect a lot of that will remain to our West until we get a front to really slam in here which I don't yet see until 10/20 on.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 12:24 pm

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 12:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:55 am

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:05 am I might be the outcast, but I struggle to see “flooding warmth” after the middle to end of next week. Big, classic mid latitude cyclone next week gets the ball rolling. My Oct 12 ideas for a long time, if you are on my FB page. This sets up the weakness and with what at least so far is “modest” blocking signature up in the Davis Straits/Greenland area, cooling should happen. It is not big cold and snow, yet, but the gradual cooling pattern with each system.

This might be where I am too fast, but by the last week of October, a colder storm and possibly some flakes in the region by end of the month. Nothing exciting, but backend drizzle and flurries and mid 30s with a quick crash at 850 that leads to a threat.

Josh

Yes Sir! I do follow you on FB and I know your stance on this. I am going warm thru 10/20 then will re-evaluate if need be. If correct, then yeah, the last week to 10 days of the month should turn colder and some flakes possible. I think we are on the same page here, just a difference in timing. That is to be expected. I like your Tropical idea too with something possibly spinning up in the Caribbean.

I don’t think we are that far off in timing, either. I think the impression some get is 80 on the 11th, 50 on the 12th but I was more in the camp of somewhere around the 12th this pattern evolves and we cool a bit with each system. So hopefully that clears up a bit of potential vagueness. I do think I am too fast with a big chill shot, it is more of a small shot, then another, then another, not one big shot. So that is probably where I went too fast.

Josh

Exactly. I believe you've mentioned several times of a step down approach and that looks good to me. Using CVG's averages for this post, which as of today are 71 / 50, by mid Oct, you're probably looking at the 70s as being above normal by then and the 80s would really be much above normal if not pushing records. Currently, we're going to be running 10 degrees above avg which is warm, but not unheard of for us in October. Watch for severe wx too, although next week, I suspect a lot of that will remain to our West until we get a front to really slam in here which I don't yet see until 10/20 on.

I actually want to see next Monday, Tuesday spike hard into the 80s. Tells us that storm out west is even more vigorous. Not expecting severe weather here, yet, but if we get a deep, cold pool to form and we chill down then the return flow, which I think we all agree will happen, then the Nov 5-20 time frame for our second season might be a tick above average then the last couple years.

Josh

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:04 pm I actually want to see next Monday, Tuesday spike hard into the 80s. Tells us that storm out west is even more vigorous. Not expecting severe weather here, yet, but if we get a deep, cold pool to form and we chill down then the return flow, which I think we all agree will happen, then the Nov 5-20 time frame for our second season might be a tick above average then the last couple years.

Josh

Agreed! Usually with a La Nina, that is your best chance at getting a fall severe wx season versus a Nino and with the PNA primarily being negative, we've got a good shot at it. Currently it will be in the Plains for next week in my opinion but after that, we'll have to see if we get a turn too.

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:05 am I might be the outcast, but I struggle to see “flooding warmth” after the middle to end of next week. Big, classic mid latitude cyclone next week gets the ball rolling. My Oct 12 ideas for a long time, if you are on my FB page. This sets up the weakness and with what at least so far is “modest” blocking signature up in the Davis Straits/Greenland area, cooling should happen. It is not big cold and snow, yet, but the gradual cooling pattern with each system.

This might be where I am too fast, but by the last week of October, a colder storm and possibly some flakes in the region by end of the month. Nothing exciting, but backend drizzle and flurries and mid 30s with a quick crash at 850 that leads to a threat.

Josh

Josh always glad to see you post and when you do I always take a second look at my forecast. I agree we usually need a bigger storm to change the pattern and that could no doubt happen next week. I do believe we will cool down afterwards but not to much and probably more in the mid-upper 60's for highs which would be near normal, The reason I am not going to cold late next week is much of Northern and Central Canada is still very very warm for them this time of year and I need a source of cold that we can grab hold of. I know we have some of the western cold heading this way but with the storm next week it may take much of that cold and head northeast and miss us though we would cool down after the front comes through.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:39 pm

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:05 am I might be the outcast, but I struggle to see “flooding warmth” after the middle to end of next week. Big, classic mid latitude cyclone next week gets the ball rolling. My Oct 12 ideas for a long time, if you are on my FB page. This sets up the weakness and with what at least so far is “modest” blocking signature up in the Davis Straits/Greenland area, cooling should happen. It is not big cold and snow, yet, but the gradual cooling pattern with each system.

This might be where I am too fast, but by the last week of October, a colder storm and possibly some flakes in the region by end of the month. Nothing exciting, but backend drizzle and flurries and mid 30s with a quick crash at 850 that leads to a threat.

Josh

Josh always glad to see you post and when you do I always take a second look at my forecast. I agree we usually need a bigger storm to change the pattern and that could no doubt happen next week. I do believe we will cool down afterwards but not to much and probably more in the mid-upper 60's for highs which would be near normal, The reason I am not going to cold late next week is much of Northern and Central Canada is still very very warm for them this time of year and I need a source of cold that we can grab hold of. I know we have some of the western cold heading this way but with the storm next week it may take much of that cold and head northeast and miss us though we would cool down after the front comes through.

Absolutely agree. The coldest of air will remain out West due to the trough / -PNA and the blocking high over Southern and Eastern Canada. Until we see some of these persistent features change, not much is going to change for us.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:39 pm

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:05 am I might be the outcast, but I struggle to see “flooding warmth” after the middle to end of next week. Big, classic mid latitude cyclone next week gets the ball rolling. My Oct 12 ideas for a long time, if you are on my FB page. This sets up the weakness and with what at least so far is “modest” blocking signature up in the Davis Straits/Greenland area, cooling should happen. It is not big cold and snow, yet, but the gradual cooling pattern with each system.

This might be where I am too fast, but by the last week of October, a colder storm and possibly some flakes in the region by end of the month. Nothing exciting, but backend drizzle and flurries and mid 30s with a quick crash at 850 that leads to a threat.

Josh

Josh always glad to see you post and when you do I always take a second look at my forecast. I agree we usually need a bigger storm to change the pattern and that could no doubt happen next week. I do believe we will cool down afterwards but not to much and probably more in the mid-upper 60's for highs which would be near normal, The reason I am not going to cold late next week is much of Northern and Central Canada is still very very warm for them this time of year and I need a source of cold that we can grab hold of. I know we have some of the western cold heading this way but with the storm next week it may take much of that cold and head northeast and miss us though we would cool down after the front comes through.

All good Tim. I think that is where I am being misconstrued some. I think a piece wise drop down comes later next week and we progress cooler. The part I will miss is I thought we would have a stronger cold shot, fast, then rebound then ease down. I didn’t see any long cold period, just a sharp cool down followed by a warm up, then a slide down fashion through the end of the month with each successive storm system.

Josh

I think I fell into that same trap too Josh. I also was expecting a stronger front to cool us down. Give us an early frost, that kind of thing. I too never said it was sustained. Doesn't look like that is going to happen anytime soon. I don't see anything cold enough coming to produce an early frost now. So that part I busted on for sure.

It's early October so it's okay to have a -PNA, +EPO for the Pacific. If it continues thru November and we don't see some colder changes which I totally expect, then we could have a red flag for the winter. So far though, I am not yet concerned. Since this will be another Nina winter, the PNA is likely to avg negative anyway, and I'm good with that. That means that we should see an active polar jet. The question is going to be how the 500 MB pattern responds. If you get the blocking to go along with it to force the storm track south to get the cold to press in here then you're good to go for wintry fun and games. If you get the +EPO to continue and / or you get a gradient pattern to go along with the -PNA, then the SE Ridge is going to be a huge pain in our asses. But for now, all is good since it's only 10/6 and we've got plenty of time to see how things unfold. You'd think with a -QBO and a weak PV that it would be much easier to get said blocking, but as we all know in weather, stranger things can and do happen. We'll just have to wait and see.

Good Evening and feels more like a mid-May day imo. Looking at the weather this evening and starting to see a nice band of showers and thundershower over central Tn moving into south and central Kentucky. Watching those for later this evening into the overnight. They are moving mainly south to north and if you get under one of those bands your rain totals will go up quickly.

Looking further ahead and really we have been in the same pattern since mid-late July with above normal temps and big influence from the gom. So when the pattern switches and it will can we get a good 3 months of a decent pattern that runs say from early Nov-early Feb. We had a late wet spring and early summer followed by the past 2 1/2 months heading towards three with tropical conditions so what will the next pattern show and will it be an extended pattern once again. Still early Oct so many things can and will happen before we have a better clue of the upcoming winter. Remember last November and Siberia got hit with very heavy snows deep into November which is very unusual as they are usually cold and dry by then. This helped in getting some really cold temps up there with the fresh snow pack and imo helped us in February getting the 2-3 weeks of rather harsh winter weather for our area and saved the winter for us. So yes October is always a key month but sometimes even later in the season unusual pattern can set up in November and we must look at that as part of the equation.

Enjoy the evening and don't be surprised to hear some thunder later tonight.

Agree Tim on the thunder. Same with tomorrow too! While I am not expecting any severe wx, cannot rule out a strong storm.

----

Good morning all and I busted on where the heaviest rains would fall. They fell right over the Metro instead of to the west. The Dome indeed took a vacation. Picked up around an inch here with 1.09" at CVG falling overnight. We'll see what happens today. Steadier rains are out East at this time. We'll see periods of showers / t-storms with as break then re-development this afternoon and evening. Everything should be done tomorrow morning.

Summer is back this weekend with 80 Sat and yes, the MID 80s on Sunday! 80s for Columbus Day as well then the U70s thereafter. Maybe, just maybe by late next weekend we will be near avg for temps, upper 60s to near 70.

Good Morning Les and quite the light show last night. Keep this up and will be mowing twice a week again lol. I believe the models had a hard time with placement of the rain over the past day or so and the low was to our west but the precip was scattered everywhere. Indy over an inch as was CVG and Lexington had over 2 inches and Louisville around .70. Dayton and Columbus on the other hand very little in rainfall. Should get a break until late afternoon and then lets see where the showers and thundershowers pop up. I would expect more towards the northeast but will need to watch this carefully. The good thing is dry weather starting Friday through probably Monday or Tuesday but can't rule out a shower by later Monday or Tuesday. Temps near 80 and somewhat higher humidity from the rainfall over the past couple of days.

Then we are starting to see changes as a rather large system in the Central Plains heading into Canada. This is a good sign if we want the pattern change. So later next week into the following week expecting to see much of Northern and Central Canada to really start to get cold and also snowy and once this starts then we will see more cold fronts heading towards us that will bring some nice shots of much cooler air.

Good morning Tim... we'll see if this continues to gain steam or not in the coming days, but I agree... seeing more signs of fall potentially coming beginning next Sunday 10/17. Until then... well above avg temps will continue. Hopefully this signal now that we're seeing is going to become reality. Not saying we'll get very cold, just saying more seasonal temps which would be highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. That's where we should be in mid to late October as an avg. Below avg would be 50s for highs and 30s for lows basically by then.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 07, 2021 7:52 am Dayton and Columbus on the other hand very little in rainfall.

True that - 0.05" here!

I'm seeing some sun breaks now so that should allow for a little bit of heating this afternoon for additional scattered t-storm development later this afternoon and evening. Visible shows a large area of clearing just S of the Metro over a lot of KY so we should see development down there rotate up our way later.

Looks like a small chance for showers Mon night (next week) with a weak system coming thru but it's the one behind it that will get cranked up and make headlines for the first snow of the season for parts of the N Rockies next week. It will bring severe wx to the Plains while summer rages on for us locally until that system finally begins to cool us down late next weekend. That looks to be the current expectation anyway.

On this particular GFS run (new 12Z), if you look closely as the front tries to push in towards the end of next week, notice two tropical systems trying to get involved. One is over the Eastern Pacific just off the Mexican Coast and the other is a tropical wave over the Western Caribbean N of Cuba. So the speed of this frontal system is already going to be slow because of the blocking pattern we're in and the tropics, if they do try and get involved, is only going to create issues with the model guidance. Interesting times ahead after we get thru this last (I hope) blast of summer.

In the midst of an October mini heat wave. Double digit above normal temps any time of year is nothing to sneeze at. Starting on the 4th and should last at least another week

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:46 pm In the midst of an October mini heat wave. Double digit above normal temps any time of year is nothing to sneeze at. Starting on the 4th and should last at least another week

Sneeze is the best word to describe the current pattern which is all I do in the past several days. Another 6/10ths of an inch in Greenville. The place has been under a black cloud since I moved their part time lol