September 2021 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

1658 100 LUDINGTON MASON MI 4396 8644 PHOTO OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN LUDINGTON ... DURATION OF 5 MINS ... VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (GRR)

1731 250 BALDWIN LAKE MI 4390 8585 PHOTO OF HAILSTONES ... ALONG WITH LIMBS DOWN ... VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (GRR)

^^ Baldwin is where an aunt and cousin of mine, reside!

[cloudy72]

86 has been my high so far today.

[MVWxObserver]

Called my folks a few minutes ago to let them know. Talked to Dad and he said he and Mom were finished sight-seeing, browsing / shopping for the day and are heading back to their timeshare. He said its gotten windy since around noon.

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 82 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Sorry folks for the lack of posts. Was the workday from hell today. Glad it's over, sheesh!

Anyway... 84 for my high today and CVG hit at least 83. 84 wouldn't surprise me either during an intra hour reading. The only weather for our local area in the next week is that front coming in tomorrow morning with that broken line of showers / t-storms. That's it until sometime next week. Going to estimate around the 15th per the latest GFS and Euro runs. I am still going above avg in temps as a whole from this weekend thru about 9/20. My thoughts there haven't changed.

EDITL: 83 officially per the 5pm climate report.

[tron777]

For you severe wx nuts... 70+ mph winds and baseball sized hail with some of these storms in N ILL,. N IN and Southern Mich. Due to the timing of the front, no issues like that for us of course. You know the call for here already.

[MVWxObserver]

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[cloudy72]

0.01" this morning

[tron777]

Me too, Mike! CVG kicked our asses with 0.03"

[tron777]

Three nice ones coming up after the front passes today. Thurs and Fri are awesome, Sat even is not too bad. By Sunday the Upper 80s return and cannot even rule out a sneaky 90 early next week. It'll be humid also. So we've got 3 possible contest days coming. Sun, Mon, and Tues. Then a front and a brief drop back into the low 80s. I think we'll have one more warm up as I continue to go with thru the 20th for an above avg temp time period. Then we're back to our normal NW Flow, below normal pattern after that.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and just a ground wetter overnight. Next several days look wonderful. The higher temps which the gfs had first but the Euro caught on and has stayed the course look possible Sun-Tues. Two problems I see with the temp forecast. Getting to 90 in September is never easy but usually its a drier heat that we see with dews in the 50's and low 60's. The models are trying to bring in higher dews during this period which IMO would knock down the temps 3-5 degrees though the higher dews would make it feel warmer. The vegetation overall in the region is probably close to normal this time of year though I am mowing twice a week again and the ground on the top is still muddy. So no doubt the warmer temps Sun-Tues but will it be a warm and muggy type of drier heat. Does the system in the gom head over to the southeast coast and then develop is something we need to watch as that can have a big impact on our weather.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Seeing 500 DM heights on the models around 592 and that's usually good for an 87-91 degree type of high in summer. so yeah to your point it is Sept. but getting 89'ed at CVG is going to happen IMO probably Mon and or Tues. A 90 to me is possible but it's one of those sneaky 90s.

EDIT: Euro has 850s around 20C give or take. That certainly supports the U80s to a sneaky 90.

For right now... a little action popping in SE IN with the front. We'll see if we an catch anything here or if it's a swing and a miss.

[tron777]

Per radar, that line with the front over NKY was a swing and a miss for me. Per radar, Tim should have had a shower out of it. (Of course LOL)

[tpweather]

Per radar, that line with the front over NKY was a swing and a miss for me. Per radar, Tim should have had a shower out of it. (Of course LOL)

Lol and yes you are correct a light shower over my head. Need to get that dark cloud away from my house

[tron777]

Per radar, that line with the front over NKY was a swing and a miss for me. Per radar, Tim should have had a shower out of it. (Of course LOL)

Lol and yes you are correct a light shower over my head. Need to get that dark cloud away from my house

My hood had some really good luck last winter. Hoping for the same this winter while you're using up all of your good luck in the summer on rainfall!

[cloudy72]

My hood had some really good luck last winter. Hoping for the same this winter while you're using up all of your good luck in the summer on rainfall!

Hey Les - Yes I think your hood actually had more snowfall than mine if I recall correctly. Guess I have a snow dome as well!

[tron777]

My hood had some really good luck last winter. Hoping for the same this winter while you're using up all of your good luck in the summer on rainfall!

Hey Les - Yes I think your hood actually had more snowfall than mine if I recall correctly. Guess I have a snow dome as well!

I did! When CVG got that 10" from snow squalls I also did. Broke the double digit curse for my hood. I got over 22-23" in that 2 week Feb stretch.

[tron777]

0.08" is the total for this frontal passage event at CVG.

[cloudy72]

0.01" is my total! Well at least I can enjoy this nice weather we are having, eh?

[tron777]

0.01" is my total! Well at least I can enjoy this nice weather we are having, eh?

I can't believe I beat you. 0.02" here!

[tron777]

12Z GFS looks good for the call of our next front coming in around the 15th. Then, my warmer then normal call thru at least 9/20 also looking good on the GFS. May have to adjust that date a little further out in time, as I might be rushing it a bit, but the idea anyways still stands as called.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has 594 DM Heights now on Sunday with 850s around 22C. That's a slam dunk for a 90 degree day at CVG should this turn out to be correct. Monday will be close 89 or 90 and Tues probably 88-89. I am basing this on the Euro text data for CVG. I won't be here to find out but I'll pop in on the forum from time to time. Leaving very early on Sat the 11th for Cass Lake, MN and be back late Sunday the 19th.

[tron777]

80 for my high today... CVG had a jet take off with 82. Enjoy Thurs - Sat with low humidity! Highs in the U70s to L80s with lows in the mid 50s or so can be expected. Upper 80s to near 90 and more humid Sun - Tues then the next front comes in on Wed with a shot of rain to drop us back into the low and mid 80s. It is possible that the U80s return (if the 12Z Euro is right) by the following weekend. Only fly in the ointment to my warmer then avg call is to possibly extend it past the 20th. Otherwise, I think we're good to go for a while with this line of thinking.