Absolute Vorticity

Good Monday morning to you all. We stand the risk of showers and storms each day this week. Best chances will be early and late in the day. ILN has us at 80% for POPS today so can The Dome hold? We shall see! Again for my hood, 7/17 was my last measurable rain. Let's make it happen! Hope the rest of you can get it who need it also. A marginal risk for severe wx as well so cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm thanks to the heat and humidity what will be in place along with some outflow boundaries from earlier storms.

Low was a muggy 72 this morning - only 60% chance here LOL Not holding my breath but will take anything I can get.

Radar trending downward as it nears the no rain zone

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:28 am Radar trending downward as it nears the no rain zone

A swing and a miss to the SW is a real legit possibility. LOU Special.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/08/09/goode- ... r-blog-89/

Update from the boys:

Radar imagery at 14z shows scattered light showers beginning to
work their way into our eastern IN counties. The progression of
the MCS has slowed compared to what previous model runs were
showing, and overall storm organization is lacking as the
system progresses eastward. CAMs suggest that portions of the
Tri-state and counties along/near the Ohio River will have the
best chance at observing thunderstorms through the evening, with
some becoming strong to severe. While the severe threat is on
the lower-end today, the extreme amounts of instability does not
allow for it to be ruled out. Winds will be the primary severe
threat based on the depth of the warm layer, but hail potential
still remains as the environment will be conducive to stronger
updrafts. The 12z ILN sounding highlights the extreme warmth
through the depth of the troposphere. PWATs are only sitting at
1.25", but these values are expected to climb above 1.5" across
the entire CWA today. Additionally, the freezing level is
sitting above 14,000 ft, so warm-rain processes will dominate in
these thunderstorms.

The warmest temperatures will be observed across central Ohio
into the lower Scioto Valley today due to the slower onset of
precipitation and cloud coverage. PoPs will be lower in general
across our eastern counties as the kinematics become less
favorable for holding these storms together.

Check out the difference in QPF between the 3km and 12km NAM - quite noticeable. 12km NAM (Prob the correct one) barely has 0.20" at CVG with the heaviest just to the south (LOU special), while the 3km NAM blasts CVG with over 3" LOL

I'd roll with the 12KM version based on radar trends.

It's trying to push in... definitely like the 12KM NAM now lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:46 am I'd roll with the 12KM version based on radar trends.

With the line to our south strengthening that pretty much puts another nail in coffin

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:46 am I'd roll with the 12KM version based on radar trends.

With the line to our south strengthening that pretty much puts another nail in coffin

Yeah...12KM NAM is even going to bust high.

We had an absolute downpour in Fairfield. A TON of water.

Light rain here... first since 7/17 Time to play the lotto!

Got a quick .2 in a hurry. I’ll take it.

This is so light, don't even know if it's gonna register but it's better then a zero®

A quick 0.19" here as well.

CVG checking in with 0.04" and the Boone Co mesonet site has 0.14" I'm right in between those two stations. I'm more like CVG on the light side here as well.

Nice to see some rainfall and concerning models and how totals vary so much and its just shows you models are a long way from being anything close to perfect and of course that makes met's and forecasters look bad at times. More rain this afternoon and then again Wednesday looks like another day for a decent shot for most folks. Heading into the weekend and here is the problem we usually have starting in mid-August is the uptick in tropical systems and how they really mess with the models because they can be a stop sign for incoming fronts. One day it will show the front coming through and temps near 80 and the next day we have temps in the mid-upper80's forecast as the front stalls. IMO this is one of the hardest times during the year to predict weather further out because of the tropical systems and how they can put a halt to a weather pattern.

I sure hope we can get some rain from one of them, but for now, I'd target FL and the East Coast based on how the upper level pattern has been. That can change but that's been the look so far this summer.

If you look outside my window right now, you wouldn't even know that we had any rain today if I didn't tell you, it's been that light. Hopefully tomorrow or Wed, we can do better because this isn't cutting it.

The good news... 81 for the high so far today so that's nice that we got a quick break from the 90s. Glad to see some of you cashing in as well. Wed and Thurs to me were always the best chance days so we'll see.

12Z Euro looks decent for Wed morning and again Fri afternoon and evening for CVG.

No convective activity up my way today.

Maybe my folks and I heading down to Centerville (south of DAY) for some family business tomorrow will bring some fairly decent downpours to areas.

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

Could be interesting wx for the Brew Crew at Cubbies this evening at 8:05.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif