March 2021 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

It doesn't get any better weather wise for tapping maple trees .

[tron777]

It doesn't get any better weather wise for tapping maple trees .

My brother and I used to do that as kids back before the woods became a Kroger's. We would tap some maple trees, bring home the sap / water mixture and our Mom would boil the heck out of it until the water was gone and all you had left was maple syrup. It's a lot of work and time, and we never got a lot out of it, but as kids, it was still a lot of fun!

[Bgoney]

It doesn't get any better weather wise for tapping maple trees .

My brother and I used to do that as kids back before the woods became a Kroger's. We would tap some maple trees, bring home the sap / water mixture and our Mom would boil the heck out of it until the water was gone and all you had left was maple syrup. It's a lot of work and time, and we never got a lot out of it, but as kids, it was still a lot of fun!

My great nephews are in to that atm , lots work indeed.

[House of Cards]

It doesn't get any better weather wise for tapping maple trees .

My brother and I used to do that as kids back before the woods became a Kroger's. We would tap some maple trees, bring home the sap / water mixture and our Mom would boil the heck out of it until the water was gone and all you had left was maple syrup. It's a lot of work and time, and we never got a lot out of it, but as kids, it was still a lot of fun!

My great nephews are in to that atm , lots work indeed.

I handle agencies in the state of Vermont, and one trip out there was able to go look at a sugaring operation. Really interesting to see the innovative ways they have developed to get more sap out quicker/easier over the years.

[tron777]

It doesn't get any better weather wise for tapping maple trees .

My brother and I used to do that as kids back before the woods became a Kroger's. We would tap some maple trees, bring home the sap / water mixture and our Mom would boil the heck out of it until the water was gone and all you had left was maple syrup. It's a lot of work and time, and we never got a lot out of it, but as kids, it was still a lot of fun!

My great nephews are in to that atm , lots work indeed.

I handle agencies in the state of Vermont, and one trip out there was able to go look at a sugaring operation. Really interesting to see the innovative ways they have developed to get more sap out quicker/easier over the years.

Years ago... my folks went on a trip to Maine and brought me back a bottle of real maple syrup. Way different then the stuff you get at the grocery store which is mostly water and fillers. The real stuff is so much better and you don't need as much either. A little bit goes a long way.

[tron777]

From now thru the weekend, a little more crisp out there but the winds aren't going to be too bad, under 10 mph, and we'll have tons of sunshine as well. Seasonal temps are expected for the time of year. :grin:

[MVWxObserver]

Here in Greenville at the Shawnee Prairie Nature Preserve they have a sugar house where they process Darke Co maple sugar and syrup. They also have an annual waffle and sausage breakfast at the nature center on the first Sat of March. This year they canceled the breakfast because of Covid, although the tour of the sugar house is still on.

I remember as a kid going to the maple sugar / syrup festival at Hueston Woods with my folks and sister. :grin:

Currently 34 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 43 later.

[kywthrluvr]

Changes coming from the NWS:

Code: Select all

NOUS41 KWBC 041500
PNSWSH
Public Information Statement 21-12
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD
1100 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021
To: Subscribers:
 -NOAA Weather Wire Service
 -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
 -NOAAPort
 Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees
From: Eli Jacks, Chief
 NWS Forecast Services Division
Subject: Planned Major Change to NWS' Hazard Messaging Headlines
 no earlier than calendar year 2024
The NWS will be implementing changes to its hazard messaging
headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024. This decision is
based on results of extensive social science research with
partners and the public, which documented significant confusion
with current NWS headline terms.
This research indicated that NWS' "Advisory" headlines are
responsible for a major portion of the confusion. This is
because the Advisory term itself is misunderstood and its
meaning is often conflated with that of "Watch." Such confusion
can lead to a misunderstanding of forecast severity and
certainty with respect to significant weather and water hazards.
This, in turn, can adversely impact user preparation for (and
response to) these hazards.
The major changes are as follows:
- All "Advisory" headlines within what is currently the NWS
Watch, Warning and Advisory system will be discontinued. Most
of the current Advisory headlines will be replaced with plain
language headlines that clearly articulate the nature of the
hazard. However, these messages will still be equipped with
computer-readable Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) as they are
today.
- Exceptions to the transition to plain language will apply to
Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories. These Advisories will be
elevated to the Warning level due to the life-threatening 
conditions associated with these hazards. The exact title of
the Warning for what is now a Tsunami Advisory is to be
determined.
- All "Special Weather Statements" (SPS') will be discontinued,
also in favor of plain language headlines. In addition, these
converted messages will, for the first time, be equipped with
computer-readable VTEC and placed in a bulleted "What, Where,
When, Impacts" format.
The exact language to be used in the plain language headlines
for each affected hazard is still to be determined. NWS will
host partner webinars and collect public feedback via on-line
surveys during 2021 to inform development of plain language
headlines. Additional Public Information Statements will be
issued in the coming weeks to announce these feedback
opportunities.
A slide set highlighting public and partner feedback supporting
this decision and providing case examples demonstrating how the
messages will change is at this link:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_slides.pdf
A set of frequently asked questions with responses as it relates
to the planned changes is provided here:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_faq_sheet.pd
f
Additional details on the change may be found on the “Revamp
Progress” tab of the project website. Detailed reports on the
numerous social science-based engagements may be found in the
"Reference Materials" tab:
https://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/
Prior to implementation, there will be other messaging
improvements to consolidate, reformat, realign and rename
messages for specific hazards ahead of the major change. A
draft calendar of these planned changes is provided at this
link:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_calendar_202
1.pdf
Individual Service Change Notices will be sent to specify the
exact dates for each of these changes.
Questions and comments can be directed to the NWS Hazard
Simplification Team at
hazsimp@noaa.gov.
National Service Change Notices are online at:
https://www.weather.gov/notification/
NNNN

[Bgoney]

Changes coming from the NWS:

Code: Select all

NOUS41 KWBC 041500
PNSWSH
Public Information Statement 21-12
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD
1100 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021
To: Subscribers:
 -NOAA Weather Wire Service
 -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
 -NOAAPort
 Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees
From: Eli Jacks, Chief
 NWS Forecast Services Division
Subject: Planned Major Change to NWS' Hazard Messaging Headlines
 no earlier than calendar year 2024
The NWS will be implementing changes to its hazard messaging
headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024. This decision is
based on results of extensive social science research with
partners and the public, which documented significant confusion
with current NWS headline terms.
This research indicated that NWS' "Advisory" headlines are
responsible for a major portion of the confusion. This is
because the Advisory term itself is misunderstood and its
meaning is often conflated with that of "Watch." Such confusion
can lead to a misunderstanding of forecast severity and
certainty with respect to significant weather and water hazards.
This, in turn, can adversely impact user preparation for (and
response to) these hazards.
The major changes are as follows:
- All "Advisory" headlines within what is currently the NWS
Watch, Warning and Advisory system will be discontinued. Most
of the current Advisory headlines will be replaced with plain
language headlines that clearly articulate the nature of the
hazard. However, these messages will still be equipped with
computer-readable Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) as they are
today.
- Exceptions to the transition to plain language will apply to
Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories. These Advisories will be
elevated to the Warning level due to the life-threatening 
conditions associated with these hazards. The exact title of
the Warning for what is now a Tsunami Advisory is to be
determined.
- All "Special Weather Statements" (SPS') will be discontinued,
also in favor of plain language headlines. In addition, these
converted messages will, for the first time, be equipped with
computer-readable VTEC and placed in a bulleted "What, Where,
When, Impacts" format.
The exact language to be used in the plain language headlines
for each affected hazard is still to be determined. NWS will
host partner webinars and collect public feedback via on-line
surveys during 2021 to inform development of plain language
headlines. Additional Public Information Statements will be
issued in the coming weeks to announce these feedback
opportunities.
A slide set highlighting public and partner feedback supporting
this decision and providing case examples demonstrating how the
messages will change is at this link:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_slides.pdf
A set of frequently asked questions with responses as it relates
to the planned changes is provided here:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_faq_sheet.pd
f
Additional details on the change may be found on the “Revamp
Progress” tab of the project website. Detailed reports on the
numerous social science-based engagements may be found in the
"Reference Materials" tab:
https://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/
Prior to implementation, there will be other messaging
improvements to consolidate, reformat, realign and rename
messages for specific hazards ahead of the major change. A
draft calendar of these planned changes is provided at this
link:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_calendar_202
1.pdf
Individual Service Change Notices will be sent to specify the
exact dates for each of these changes.
Questions and comments can be directed to the NWS Hazard
Simplification Team at
hazsimp@noaa.gov.
National Service Change Notices are online at:
https://www.weather.gov/notification/
NNNN

In other words, they need to dumb it down even more and be even more dramatic before people pay attention

[tron777]

Not seeing much change folks in the 12Z guidance. Still dry until the mid to late portion of next week. Still got a warm up on tap and we're still turning wet. After mid month, still tracking changes for a brief cooler pattern. Not too much else to report attm.

[BookNerdCarp]

Front street in Ripley...not good!

https://imgur.com/a/p5vTVRz

[tron777]

Front street in Ripley...not good!

https://imgur.com/a/p5vTVRz

Ouch! Hope it has crested. I think it should today and begin to slowly fall tomorrow. Thank goodness for this dry period or it would have been much worse.

[tron777]

12Z Euro looked pretty cold by next weekend. N of the river some mixed precip was even showing up. :grin:

[tpweather]

Changes coming from the NWS:

Code: Select all

NOUS41 KWBC 041500
PNSWSH
Public Information Statement 21-12
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD
1100 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021
To: Subscribers:
 -NOAA Weather Wire Service
 -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
 -NOAAPort
 Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees
From: Eli Jacks, Chief
 NWS Forecast Services Division
Subject: Planned Major Change to NWS' Hazard Messaging Headlines
 no earlier than calendar year 2024
The NWS will be implementing changes to its hazard messaging
headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024. This decision is
based on results of extensive social science research with
partners and the public, which documented significant confusion
with current NWS headline terms.
This research indicated that NWS' "Advisory" headlines are
responsible for a major portion of the confusion. This is
because the Advisory term itself is misunderstood and its
meaning is often conflated with that of "Watch." Such confusion
can lead to a misunderstanding of forecast severity and
certainty with respect to significant weather and water hazards.
This, in turn, can adversely impact user preparation for (and
response to) these hazards.
The major changes are as follows:
- All "Advisory" headlines within what is currently the NWS
Watch, Warning and Advisory system will be discontinued. Most
of the current Advisory headlines will be replaced with plain
language headlines that clearly articulate the nature of the
hazard. However, these messages will still be equipped with
computer-readable Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) as they are
today.
- Exceptions to the transition to plain language will apply to
Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories. These Advisories will be
elevated to the Warning level due to the life-threatening 
conditions associated with these hazards. The exact title of
the Warning for what is now a Tsunami Advisory is to be
determined.
- All "Special Weather Statements" (SPS') will be discontinued,
also in favor of plain language headlines. In addition, these
converted messages will, for the first time, be equipped with
computer-readable VTEC and placed in a bulleted "What, Where,
When, Impacts" format.
The exact language to be used in the plain language headlines
for each affected hazard is still to be determined. NWS will
host partner webinars and collect public feedback via on-line
surveys during 2021 to inform development of plain language
headlines. Additional Public Information Statements will be
issued in the coming weeks to announce these feedback
opportunities.
A slide set highlighting public and partner feedback supporting
this decision and providing case examples demonstrating how the
messages will change is at this link:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_slides.pdf
A set of frequently asked questions with responses as it relates
to the planned changes is provided here:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_faq_sheet.pd
f
Additional details on the change may be found on the “Revamp
Progress” tab of the project website. Detailed reports on the
numerous social science-based engagements may be found in the
"Reference Materials" tab:
https://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/
Prior to implementation, there will be other messaging
improvements to consolidate, reformat, realign and rename
messages for specific hazards ahead of the major change. A
draft calendar of these planned changes is provided at this
link:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_calendar_202
1.pdf
Individual Service Change Notices will be sent to specify the
exact dates for each of these changes.
Questions and comments can be directed to the NWS Hazard
Simplification Team at
hazsimp@noaa.gov.
National Service Change Notices are online at:
https://www.weather.gov/notification/
NNNN

At least they are doing it in a timely manner. 2024

[Ryan]

Changes coming from the NWS:

Code: Select all

NOUS41 KWBC 041500
PNSWSH
Public Information Statement 21-12
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD
1100 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021
To: Subscribers:
 -NOAA Weather Wire Service
 -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
 -NOAAPort
 Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees
From: Eli Jacks, Chief
 NWS Forecast Services Division
Subject: Planned Major Change to NWS' Hazard Messaging Headlines
 no earlier than calendar year 2024
The NWS will be implementing changes to its hazard messaging
headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024. This decision is
based on results of extensive social science research with
partners and the public, which documented significant confusion
with current NWS headline terms.
This research indicated that NWS' "Advisory" headlines are
responsible for a major portion of the confusion. This is
because the Advisory term itself is misunderstood and its
meaning is often conflated with that of "Watch." Such confusion
can lead to a misunderstanding of forecast severity and
certainty with respect to significant weather and water hazards.
This, in turn, can adversely impact user preparation for (and
response to) these hazards.
The major changes are as follows:
- All "Advisory" headlines within what is currently the NWS
Watch, Warning and Advisory system will be discontinued. Most
of the current Advisory headlines will be replaced with plain
language headlines that clearly articulate the nature of the
hazard. However, these messages will still be equipped with
computer-readable Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) as they are
today.
- Exceptions to the transition to plain language will apply to
Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories. These Advisories will be
elevated to the Warning level due to the life-threatening 
conditions associated with these hazards. The exact title of
the Warning for what is now a Tsunami Advisory is to be
determined.
- All "Special Weather Statements" (SPS') will be discontinued,
also in favor of plain language headlines. In addition, these
converted messages will, for the first time, be equipped with
computer-readable VTEC and placed in a bulleted "What, Where,
When, Impacts" format.
The exact language to be used in the plain language headlines
for each affected hazard is still to be determined. NWS will
host partner webinars and collect public feedback via on-line
surveys during 2021 to inform development of plain language
headlines. Additional Public Information Statements will be
issued in the coming weeks to announce these feedback
opportunities.
A slide set highlighting public and partner feedback supporting
this decision and providing case examples demonstrating how the
messages will change is at this link:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_slides.pdf
A set of frequently asked questions with responses as it relates
to the planned changes is provided here:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_faq_sheet.pd
f
Additional details on the change may be found on the “Revamp
Progress” tab of the project website. Detailed reports on the
numerous social science-based engagements may be found in the
"Reference Materials" tab:
https://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/
Prior to implementation, there will be other messaging
improvements to consolidate, reformat, realign and rename
messages for specific hazards ahead of the major change. A
draft calendar of these planned changes is provided at this
link:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/haz_simp_calendar_202
1.pdf
Individual Service Change Notices will be sent to specify the
exact dates for each of these changes.
Questions and comments can be directed to the NWS Hazard
Simplification Team at
hazsimp@noaa.gov.
National Service Change Notices are online at:
https://www.weather.gov/notification/
NNNN

At least they are doing it in a timely manner. 2024

Personally I think this is great that NWS is trying to make things easier for public consumption. We "weather enthusiasts" always look to the NWS and the products they produce; but the general public mostly obtains weather information from commercial sources (whatever app is pre-installed on their phone, radio, tv news, and social media posts from the same stations). All those commercial sources can have bias or tend to hype things up for clicks/likes/ratings/etc (anything for those ad $$$).

I find myself consistently referring people to weather.gov (NOT weather.com ), NWS Twitter (for their local office), and phone apps which pull forecasts from the NWS directly. My sales pitch is "go here if you want a 'just the facts' forecast, without all the hype and 'potential' model porn I've seen on TV lately."

The more understandable language the NWS can use for people, the more people will use it--that's better for everybody. Okay enough of that

Now, why it will be "no earlier than calendar year 2024" for something that is causing "significant confusion with current NWS headline terms" Well, I guess it isn't that urgent

[tron777]

18Z GFS now trying to mix some snow in N of the river by next weekend. Also watching the period of around and just after St. Patrick's Day as well. We may have a solid 7-10 days of a favorable pattern for something wintry. Still seeing signals showing up.

[tron777]

Thanks to John Gumm from Local 12 for the below graphics:

OHRiver1.png

OHRiver2.png

[tron777]

Starting to see the Eastern US trough (rising PNA,. lowering of the NAO) after mid month materialize more and more on the Ensembles and some global models too. MJO looks to be driving the bus with this pattern. Again, we warm up next week and turn wet the 2nd half of next week into next weekend, then I think we've got a shot. Some models showing cold next weekend with a wintry mix, might be too early. We'll see. I personally am watching the St. Patty's Day time frame carefully. MJO getting into Phase 1 will be key to this after mid month.

[tron777]

TGIF! Good morning to you all! 24 right now at CVG so a cold start to our day. Lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s will be the rule the next few days. Should crack 50 on Sunday and 60 by Monday. In the 60s thereafter. Plenty of sunshine thru early next week as well. Rain comes in as our active pattern gets going by Wed night and Thurs. Then do we get some t-storms next weekend? Rain mixed with snow to the north? I still like the threat of some wintry mischief beyond next weekend after mid month. Those signals are not going away at this time. Basically, no changes to my thoughts. A taste of spring coming up next week... we get wet... then winter may get one last jab in here.

[tron777]

H5 pattern from the 0Z EPS Mean. This covers the period around St. Patty's Day thru the Spring Equinox.

EPS.png

[tron777]

BG Blog Video: https://www.wave3.com/2021/03/05/goode- ... ther-blog/

[Bgoney]

21 when I Ieft the house this morning

[tron777]

CVG officially had 24. I had 23 this morning.

[cloudy72]

Down to 20 in my hood this morning.

[tron777]

Good afternoon... not a lot of change to report from today's 12Z guidance. Quiet until the Wed night and Thurs time frame. A nice warm up ahead of that as well with the 60s likely next week. Maybe a 70... we'll see. We'll be tracking rain and t-storms then. Afterwards, it is all about more rain or the timing of a storm system and cold air in the longer term.