Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Tue May 04, 2021 6:46 pm**

We were lucky on the severe side again but the south getting hammered again tonight. I know in Greenville already over 2 inches of rain and more to come. Yes we had some decent tropical rains today but we just don't get hammered like they do south of here closer to the GOM. As many folks have been to Florida and when it rains hard it rains hard. I will take the rains we got and be very happy and though I would like to see it warmer over the next week it beats no rain and 85 this time of year.

Posted: **Tue May 04, 2021 7:14 pm**

CVG total rainfall for today as of 7pm: 1.07"

As a side note, our snowfall avg has went up! Using the old 1981-2010 climate normals, our snowfall used to avg 22.1" at CVG in a season. Now, using the new climate normals that have been issued for 1991-2020 by NOAA, our snowfall avg now at CVG is 23.3"

We'll take this kind of climate change.

Temp wise, the avg has increased by about 1 degree for highs and lows.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 6:38 am**

So looks like we continue with this crap pattern until prob mid month at the earliest. MJO currently in phase one heading into two which are colder phases this time of year. Signs of some improvement as I stated by mid month so maybe we can salvage severe wx season in the second half of May. I guess there is always June and July with MCS potential too.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 6:39 am**

Good morning all! The rain is pulling out with only a small chance expected tomorrow. Likely action now possible Thurs night with another small chance on Fri. Sat may turn out to be dry now with a wet Mother's Day still on tap into next week.

Mike... agreed. This cooler and wetter pattern will be around for the next couple of weeks. No doubt about it.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 6:52 am**

Global warming update. May continues with record cold and snow in the UK and a good chunk of EU, with another cold blast forecast for mid May. I'm Sure the Met office begrudgingly released the cold facts for April...

The Met Office has confirmed that last month was the UK's coldest April since 1922. The chilly weather was accompanied by air and ground frosts, making the country record its frostiest April since 1960 when precise record-keeping began. Despite the cold and frosts, much of the country also basked in their sunniest April on record.

April 2021 had the UK's lowest average minimum temperatures in 99 years. Frots and clear conditions combined for a chilly month, said the Met Ofice.

Since records began in 1884, April 2021 had the third-lowest average UK minimum temperature for the month, early provisional figures from the National Climate Information Center (NCIC) shows. Average daily maximum temperatures fell below normal, but not by as much as the minimum.

The country also saw its frostiest April last month with an average of 13 days of air frosts. This had topped the 11-day average set in April 1970. Last month's number of air frosts is more common for December, January, or February, as the average number of air frosts for April is only five days.

The average number of ground frosts in April 2021 was 22 days, which was also a record-high, compared to the average of 12 days.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 6:58 am**

Fantastic! Love seeing the facts posted on here that you'll never see on the internet or TV. I am willing to bet that May will continue this trend. At least the first half of the month anyway. Curious to see if the drought continues out West. If so, the heat may get focused out there this summer which would mean cooler and stormier for us. Too early to know this far out, but worth watching.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 7:38 am**

Snow forecast into mid May for NA

gfs_asnow_namer_fh0-384-May-snow-us.gif

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 7:42 am**

I just checked the farm weather station (Ripley) and the event total is at 4.03" with 2.40" falling since midnight. Over an inch fell between 2:45 and 3:05 this morning which must have been an incredible downpour... I'm sure I'll be out dragging the driveway this weekend!

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 7:47 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:58 am Fantastic! Love seeing the facts posted on here that you'll never see on the internet or TV. I am willing to bet that May will continue this trend. At least the first half of the month anyway. Curious to see if the drought continues out West. If so, the heat may get focused out there this summer which would mean cooler and stormier for us. Too early to know this far out, but worth watching.

Hopefully this will get the MCS train rolling into the OV this summer!

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 7:48 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:38 am Snow forecast into mid May for NA

gfs_asnow_namer_fh0-384-May-snow-us.gif

Extremely impressive for May... wow! Going to be a slow start to summer up in the arctic should this trend continue.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 7:48 am**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:47 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:58 am Fantastic! Love seeing the facts posted on here that you'll never see on the internet or TV. I am willing to bet that May will continue this trend. At least the first half of the month anyway. Curious to see if the drought continues out West. If so, the heat may get focused out there this summer which would mean cooler and stormier for us. Too early to know this far out, but worth watching.
Hopefully this will get the MCS train rolling into the OV this summer!

I'd love that Mike so I don't have to drag out the sprinklers for a change.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 7:49 am**

Sawdoggie wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:42 am I just checked the farm weather station (Ripley) and the event total is at 4.03" with 2.40" falling since midnight. Over an inch fell between 2:45 and 3:05 this morning which must have been an incredible downpour... I'm sure I'll be out dragging the driveway this weekend!

Impressive totals Christian! Hope your driveway didn't get washed out too bad.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 7:49 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:52 am Global warming update. May continues with record cold and snow in the UK and a good chunk of EU, with another cold blast forecast for mid May. I'm Sure the Met office begrudgingly released the cold facts for April...

The Met Office has confirmed that last month was the UK's coldest April since 1922. The chilly weather was accompanied by air and ground frosts, making the country record its frostiest April since 1960 when precise record-keeping began. Despite the cold and frosts, much of the country also basked in their sunniest April on record.

April 2021 had the UK's lowest average minimum temperatures in 99 years. Frots and clear conditions combined for a chilly month, said the Met Ofice.

Since records began in 1884, April 2021 had the third-lowest average UK minimum temperature for the month, early provisional figures from the National Climate Information Center (NCIC) shows. Average daily maximum temperatures fell below normal, but not by as much as the minimum.

The country also saw its frostiest April last month with an average of 13 days of air frosts. This had topped the 11-day average set in April 1970. Last month's number of air frosts is more common for December, January, or February, as the average number of air frosts for April is only five days.

The average number of ground frosts in April 2021 was 22 days, which was also a record-high, compared to the average of 12 days.

Remember this morons....er um scientists prediction back in 2000? Funny how the article was pulled from the internet! LOL

https://www.firstthings.com/blogs/first ... -nevermind

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 8:00 am**

Sawdoggie wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:42 am I just checked the farm weather station (Ripley) and the event total is at 4.03" with 2.40" falling since midnight. Over an inch fell between 2:45 and 3:05 this morning which must have been an incredible downpour... I'm sure I'll be out dragging the driveway this weekend!

Here is the radar image in that timeframe - you can see the heavier banding right over your hood around 3am.

mrms-cincinnati-refc-0191040.png

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 8:06 am**

1.14" turned out to be the event total at CVG as our current system pulls away. Per the visible satellite, in a couple of hours, we should start to see some sun enter the forecast area from Central IN.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 8:32 am**

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/05/05/goode- ... ther-blog/

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 9:35 am**

2.1 event total

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 9:37 am**

Good Morning and happy b-day Les. Going to mow today since I will be busy the next few days. I posted 2-4 inches the other day for a 2 week period and that may be low before all is said and done. Next few days a daily chance of a shower but nothing major at all but over the weekend especially Sunday how much rain do we get. Big question marks and we could end up with heavy rain and really cool temps for this time of year or do we get rain but the warm front comes through and gives us a better shot of severe weather. Usually by this time of year strong warm fronts win out but this season has been different and cold continue to be a bully. Just hope that sometime in June the rainfall does not stop and we go from soggy to dry in several weeks. That happened in 2007 and I remember trimming some bushes in mid-June for the 2nd time because of all the rain and then it got hot and dry and the bushes within a month were turning brown as I trimmed to much. I know many mets are going with a normal to slightly below normal for temps in the summer but I am not sold on that being the case. I have a few years I have been looking at and that is why I am still going warmer than normal for the June-August period but something I will be looking at more in the next 45 days.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 10:01 am**

Thanks Tim!

I need to mow, my yard is a jungle but it's been too wet. Going to try and get it done tomorrow. We really need some sun to dry things out between rain storms but little of that is going to happen.

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 10:33 am**

Sunshine is out here now - 0.19" since midnight and 24 hour total of 0.93".

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am**

Happy Birthday Les!!!!

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 10:58 am**

Thank you Mike!

A few batches of blue sky here now. That is a nice treat lol

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 11:15 am**

Happy birthday Mr. Rhoads! Have a great day and once again, thanks for all you do!!!

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 11:59 am**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:49 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:52 am Global warming update. May continues with record cold and snow in the UK and a good chunk of EU, with another cold blast forecast for mid May. I'm Sure the Met office begrudgingly released the cold facts for April...

The Met Office has confirmed that last month was the UK's coldest April since 1922. The chilly weather was accompanied by air and ground frosts, making the country record its frostiest April since 1960 when precise record-keeping began. Despite the cold and frosts, much of the country also basked in their sunniest April on record.

April 2021 had the UK's lowest average minimum temperatures in 99 years. Frots and clear conditions combined for a chilly month, said the Met Ofice.

Since records began in 1884, April 2021 had the third-lowest average UK minimum temperature for the month, early provisional figures from the National Climate Information Center (NCIC) shows. Average daily maximum temperatures fell below normal, but not by as much as the minimum.

The country also saw its frostiest April last month with an average of 13 days of air frosts. This had topped the 11-day average set in April 1970. Last month's number of air frosts is more common for December, January, or February, as the average number of air frosts for April is only five days.

The average number of ground frosts in April 2021 was 22 days, which was also a record-high, compared to the average of 12 days.
Remember this morons....er um scientists prediction back in 2000? Funny how the article was pulled from the internet! LOL

https://www.firstthings.com/blogs/first ... -nevermind

I can remember speech after speech from Al Gore saying the same thing in the 90s after the East coast had 2 or 3 years in a row of low snow winters. How'd that turn out the last 30 years of record breaking snows for the NEast

Posted: **Wed May 05, 2021 12:04 pm**

HBday Les , many more!!

Absolute Vorticity

May 2021 Weather Discussion

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