Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 5:46 am The overnight models have increased the rainfall amounts with our next system. Can we believe it is the question? then we watch the Sat rain maker. After that our first potential wintry system arrives by the middle of next week. We are about 8 days out now with tracking the first potential system as the new pattern takes shape.

A tricky warm front situation for sure but I think for most of AVland a range of .25”-.75” for Wednesday/Thursday . Models have had next weeks system on their radar for quite awhile. At this very early stage has the makings of a I71 special with the dividing line of mix to the south and snow north

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 6:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 5:46 am The overnight models have increased the rainfall amounts with our next system. Can we believe it is the question? then we watch the Sat rain maker. After that our first potential wintry system arrives by the middle of next week. We are about 8 days out now with tracking the first potential system as the new pattern takes shape.

A tricky warm front situation for sure but I think for most of AVland a range of .25”-.75” for Wednesday/Thursday . Models have had next weeks system on their radar for quite awhile. At this very early stage has the makings of a I71 special with the dividing line of mix to the south and snow north

With regards to our next system, my call was for around a 1/2" so we look to be on the same page here for the most part.

Nice video Les. Lots to keep an eye on, for certain!

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:35 am Nice video Les. Lots to keep an eye on, for certain!

For sure Dave. It won't be boring that is for certain. Precip types and amounts are the uncertain part this far out.

12Z HRRR has a slight chance at some frz rain, but it's very very minor. 9Z SREF is like the HRRR, very minor. 12Z NAM is hitting this harder for I-70 folks.

Good Morning and today looks like a true early Feb day with plenty of clouds. Concerning the chances of frz/rain locally and still believe we will be just warm enough at the surface that it will be rain and nothing in terms of frz/rain. At the start you can get a brief period and I mean brief of sleet but that will cause no problems. Since the rain is coming in a little later this also gives us a better shot of being in the mid-30's by the time it starts. Concerning totals and with a warm front along with a low pressure system near us I can see .5-1.0. As we know this season for the most part models are way to wet and will this continue and will see but when you have a warm front and moisture riding over the front its usually a good rain maker so lets see if that is the case. Have not looked at the extended and will do that later today

12Z RGEM keeps anything on the frozen side N of I-70. This is for tomorrow. GooFuS is running now...

Based on the data I am looking at, I think you've got the right idea Tim. Looks like the onset of the precip will be slow enough that we'll probably be in the mid 30s when the rain starts, which means we'll be fine. I-70 on north of course does need to be watched in my opinion.

12Z GFS is keeping all of the frozen precip north of our CWA.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 10:47 am Based on the data I am looking at, I think you've got the right idea Tim. Looks like the onset of the precip will be slow enough that we'll probably be in the mid 30s when the rain starts, which means we'll be fine. I-70 on north of course does need to be watched in my opinion.

Les with the later arrival it looks like rain though we know at first you can get that small period where you get a touch of sleet before all layers are warm enough for just liquid. Not expecting any problems with the sleet and will be short-lived. Looks to be a high pressure to the northeast of us on Wednesday and the winds will no doubt be out of the east and this will keep temps from rising much and the I-70 folks especially towards Columbus have the best shot of a period of frz/rain but not expecting a long period where problems can show up. Usually we have problems with frz/rain is when we get a system like the one over the next few days and temps have been below the 32 degree mark for several days but that is not the case with this system plus the cold behind the system is nothing really cold and its not coming into the system quickly


On a side note my son at his house got over 5 inches yesterday and expecting another 1-3 over the next few days. They are still way behind on snow this season once again but February and March look nice for them to catch up.

Need some help folks! Supposed to be headed to Ann arbor for the Oregon game tomorrow night. Planned on leaving around 11am. Game time 6:30pm.

Wxulikeitornot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 11:14 am Need some help folks! Supposed to be headed to Ann arbor for the Oregon game tomorrow night. Planned on leaving around 11am. Game time 6:30pm.

Be careful. Could be some nasty icing across N Ohio and S Mich by Wed afternoon.

12Z OP GFS for next week and beyond looks out of sync, lost, and confused on todays run. I think we're at the point where the GFS loses a storm for a day or two, then gets it back. 12Z CMC continues with the cold and suppressed look.

Headed to Cleveland and Akron tomorrow very early 5:30 AM.... Any issues there?

MattyD wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 12:49 pm Headed to Cleveland and Akron tomorrow very early 5:30 AM.... Any issues there?

Nope. You're good to go. It is an evening / overnight into Thurs morning thing.

12Z GEFS is a nice run for next week. Back to back App runners anyone?

12Z Euro looks nice for 2/11 but after that, it's out of sync like the OP GFS so we'll have to wait and see as usual. EPS also looks good for 2/11, but then it a little too amp'ed up for the next one.

For tomorrow afternoon and evening, the 18Z GFS is a touch colder bringing in a brief period of frz rain for folks in the I-70 zone then plain rain. A touch of frz rain for N Cincy burbs and rain for everyone else. I am expecting all rain in CVG Land anyway. ILN has not issued an advisory and it is due to the brief period of frz rain expected to the north and it is uncertain how much precip and when the onset of it will be. We've gone warmer on here then most guidance but it truly is a nowcast situation. We've made the call and always hope it is right but sometimes other things do occur.

We are still expecting another shot of rain on Saturday too by the way. Up's and down's with temps. It won't get interesting for us snow weenies until next week. Perhaps as early as Monday night.

18Z GFS is coming in with a better phase now for 2/11. Just need the northern shortwave to speed up a touch more and we've got a major snow storm on our hands for Mon night into Tues night next week. I am starting to get interested in this one. Day 7 so we've got a few more days to see how the phasing goes. Too early, it is rain. Too late and it's nothing. It has to be just right as always for us. This one has the potential to be our next thread maker.

Big shift from the WPC for next week at least for the heavy snow area

Graphic from the boys for tomorrow:

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 5:29 pm Big shift from the WPC for next week at least for the heavy snow area

The Ensemble mean is heaviest in that area on todays runs so I can see why they changed it. Phasing occurs a little too late for us. I think personally we are still well within the game at Day 7. Early on I-71 was the dividing line. Then we're too far south on some models so I say somewhere in the middle is perfect for us.