Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:11 am 22 as of 8am at CVG with flurries. Not seeing anything falling here in Mason. Are there any of you seeing any flakes right now? Radar shows a touch of snow SE of I-71 at this time.

Yes, a flake or two flying around here

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:11 am 22 as of 8am at CVG with flurries. Not seeing anything falling here in Mason. Are there any of you seeing any flakes right now? Radar shows a touch of snow SE of I-71 at this time.

Yes, a flake or two flying around here

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:51 am I second it! Post your videos too, Jeff if you can! For those that do not know, Jeff posts videos on his Facebook page of the LES action.

Video from the other night during heavy lake effect. I hit refresh at first since I thought image was messed up, it was not.

Mjr wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:53 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:11 am 22 as of 8am at CVG with flurries. Not seeing anything falling here in Mason. Are there any of you seeing any flakes right now? Radar shows a touch of snow SE of I-71 at this time.

Yes, a flake or two flying around here

Good deal, thank you!

Snowbrain2 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 9:03 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:51 am I second it! Post your videos too, Jeff if you can! For those that do not know, Jeff posts videos on his Facebook page of the LES action.

Video from the other night during heavy lake effect. I hit refresh at first since I thought image was messed up, it was not.

Man.... if that video doesn't put you in the Christmas Spirit then nothing will!

Freeze watch/warnings in Florida

Currently 19 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around the freezing mark.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:17 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:00 am Easterly’s still going strong for an extended period

I wonder if the Nina is still trying to get its act together? Typically this is the time of year you would see it start to peak. I still do not think that ENSO is going to be driving the pattern though. MJO (and other factors) still should rule IMO. Hopefully the current -EPO pattern we are seeing is a staple of the upcoming winter. I am seeing shades of 2013-2014. Would love to see half of the snow this winter that we saw that winter. It would still be above avg!

Les this is interesting post you made and I will try explain my reasoning. First upticks and down ticks are common in a La NIna and El Nino and usually when you see a spike either way we tend to get stormier in the eastern half of the USA. The neutral ENSO and you mentioned it will not drive the pattern and I understand where you are coming from but I believe its like a family fight and both sides taking control and each driving their point home but mom (aka) neutral ENSO is the common sense member that calms everything down and we get back to normal in the family setting. So yes other factors play a part of the outcome but for shorter periods as mom (aka) ENSO makes sure this will not get out of control.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 9:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:17 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:00 am Easterly’s still going strong for an extended period

I wonder if the Nina is still trying to get its act together? Typically this is the time of year you would see it start to peak. I still do not think that ENSO is going to be driving the pattern though. MJO (and other factors) still should rule IMO. Hopefully the current -EPO pattern we are seeing is a staple of the upcoming winter. I am seeing shades of 2013-2014. Would love to see half of the snow this winter that we saw that winter. It would still be above avg!

Les this is interesting post you made and I will try explain my reasoning. First upticks and down ticks are common in a La NIna and El Nino and usually when you see a spike either way we tend to get stormier in the eastern half of the USA. The neutral ENSO and you mentioned it will not drive the pattern and I understand where you are coming from but I believe its like a family fight and both sides taking control and each driving their point home but mom (aka) neutral ENSO is the common sense member that calms everything down and we get back to normal in the family setting. So yes other factors play a part of the outcome but for shorter periods as mom (aka) ENSO makes sure this will not get out of control.

Nice post Tim and I agree with what you've said here. Let me be clear on one thing though. When I mentioned 2013-2014 that was an extreme winter. Very severe and no I don't expect that type of outcome since it was very severe. However, the point is that the pacific drove the pattern that winter and in a good way. If we can see something like that this winter occur, say 50% of the time, then reaching above normal snowfall at CVG would be very achievable. funny thing is,.. Dec 2013 ended up being very mild and Jan - Mar 2014 is where we really cashed in. So Dec of 2024 being colder (at this time) is very interesting to see. The last 10+ years, Decembers have trended to be very mild if not record breaking in some cases. This December is vastly different. We have not see a December start out like this since December of 2010. We'll see how the month goes as we press on but so far, the winter of 2024--2025 has started out pretty darn nice for us.

Les we are on the same page which is always a good sign imo

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 10:33 am Les we are on the same page which is always a good sign imo

Absolutely Tim! BG's video as well as Travis's certainly offer up hope for cold and snow lovers. Check out those videos I have posted if you have not already done so. Travis really dives into the arctic / longer term as well. I have a feeling the LES zones are going to score and score big until the lakes freeze up.

With the arctic front coming up this week, below are the record cold highs for Thursday 12/5.

CVG - 24 from 1895
DAY - 24 from 2008
CMH - 25 from 1899

The temp for the day most likely will be whatever we have at midnight. So... it's going to depend on when the front comes thru. During the daytime hours, yes... we will see temps at or below those record values. However, the high for the day will go down at midnight IMO and it could still be in the 30s then if the front hasn't passed yet. We'll see! Wind chills 0 to 5 above for the AM Commute on Thurs along with a band of snow in that 2-4am window. Get ready!

12Z GFS and CMC for next week, are much faster with the secondary system. No phasing on the GFS's solution so there is no cold air for it to work with. CMC does still have some cold air but the problem here is not much precip back in the colder air. I think that because both models have sped this thing up, that if it's the right idea, then it'll be a non event IMO. You'd want to see a slower solution like what we saw on the 0Z run. You get better digging of the trough, as well as a better chance to see a phase. Therefore, a better chance to see precip get flung back into the colder air. Operational models will continue to flip and flop over the next several days. We watch and wait. Waiting on the 12Z GEFS as it's not quite out far enough yet for next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 10:50 am With the arctic front coming up this week, below are the record cold highs for Thursday 12/5.

CVG - 24 from 1895
DAY - 24 from 2008
CMH - 25 from 1899

The temp for the day most likely will be whatever we have at midnight. So... it's going to depend on when the front comes thru. During the daytime hours, yes... we will see temps at or below those record values. However, the high for the day will go down at midnight IMO and it could still be in the 30s then if the front hasn't passed yet. We'll see! Wind chills 0 to 5 above for the AM Commute on Thurs along with a band of snow in that 2-4am window. Get ready!

Great Post Les and exactly the midnight temp should be the high. I watched both videos and Brian was a tad warmer yesterday but has come back some and I believe on here we believe there is some milder periods in Dec but not long term and we have said this for awhile and when we all agree that is a very good sign. Yes you will have a day here and there where the models will come up with a out look that shows massive warmth and the next one a true snowstorm. That is why we look at so many items on here and try to flush the garbage out as much as possible. These are nice cold shots and just wish we had more snow on the ground northwest of here but maybe with the first storm next week we can get that and this would no doubt help the cold move further south if a second storm forms. One other item I have been watching is Alaska over the past month of so. They have gone back and forth with some decent cold but nothing record breaking but also some warmth as well and this is a good sign that the cold is unable to take hold for a longer period. Sometimes when that happens we are must mild for weeks upon end until that cold breaks but so far so good. Yes a reloading of the cold will need to happen and I have that around the 15th or so and lets see how long that takes because it needs to reload but also have a path back into our area afterwards. Only thing I know this is the best December in several years in terms of possible winter weather

12Z GEFS members: One to the West, one on top of us and another to the East. Rest of the members have nothing. 12Z Euro also sped up both systems for next week which again causes problems for us getting snow.

It’s a great look this far out regardless. A highly amplified pattern /jet with plenty of of energy/vorts rounding the ridge and under the trough. How those eject is unknown

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 1:45 pm It’s a great look this far out regardless. A highly amplified pattern /jet with plenty of of energy/vorts rounding the ridge and under the trough. How those eject is unknown

I agree. We know the final outcome won't be known probably until early next week once we see how the first rain maker develops and progresses. Models didn't even get today right. ILN has me as sunny highs in the lower 30s for this afternoon. Here we are at 2pm and it's still overcast and in the 20s. CVG currently checking in with 27 degrees.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 1:56 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 1:45 pm It’s a great look this far out regardless. A highly amplified pattern /jet with plenty of of energy/vorts rounding the ridge and under the trough. How those eject is unknown

I agree. We know the final outcome won't be known probably until early next week once we see how the first rain maker develops and progresses. Models didn't even get today right. ILN has me as sunny highs in the lower 30s for this afternoon. Here we are at 2pm and it's still overcast and in the 20s. CVG currently checking in with 27 degrees.

Wow you mean the folks at CVG missed the winter days when we have some leftover moisture. This is always their biggest miss every winter and it seems it would sink in by the amount times they miss this forecast

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 2:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 1:56 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 1:45 pm It’s a great look this far out regardless. A highly amplified pattern /jet with plenty of of energy/vorts rounding the ridge and under the trough. How those eject is unknown

I agree. We know the final outcome won't be known probably until early next week once we see how the first rain maker develops and progresses. Models didn't even get today right. ILN has me as sunny highs in the lower 30s for this afternoon. Here we are at 2pm and it's still overcast and in the 20s. CVG currently checking in with 27 degrees.

Wow you mean the folks at CVG missed the winter days when we have some leftover moisture. This is always their biggest miss every winter and it seems it would sink in by the amount times they miss this forecast

That's how it goes sometimes Tim! Models can get the overall pattern right say 7-10 days out but can miss the finer details such as sky cover 24 hours out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 2:27 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 2:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 1:56 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 1:45 pm It’s a great look this far out regardless. A highly amplified pattern /jet with plenty of of energy/vorts rounding the ridge and under the trough. How those eject is unknown

I agree. We know the final outcome won't be known probably until early next week once we see how the first rain maker develops and progresses. Models didn't even get today right. ILN has me as sunny highs in the lower 30s for this afternoon. Here we are at 2pm and it's still overcast and in the 20s. CVG currently checking in with 27 degrees.

Wow you mean the folks at CVG missed the winter days when we have some leftover moisture. This is always their biggest miss every winter and it seems it would sink in by the amount times they miss this forecast

That's how it goes sometimes Tim! Models can get the overall pattern right say 7-10 days out but can miss the finer details such as sky cover 24 hours out.

That is why you must rely on what you know from living here and not so much the models. Models a great tool but if have lived here any amount of time you know that the cloudy day normally wins out except last year was somewhat different so maybe they did well last year lol

Late day sunshine helped CVG make it to 30 today, 29 here. We should crack 40 tomorrow with strong SW flow ahead of the arctic front. Look for a snow shower / sleet pellet early in a few areas, otherwise, rain changing to snow tomorrow evening / overnight with the arctic front coming in. Look for winds to pick up gusting as high as 40 mph along with snowfall totals of 1/2" or so. Could certainly see some isolated slick spots early on Thursday with the falling temps if any moisture is still around on the roads. The wind, windchill, and cold temps are the big story for Thursday.

Good Evening and looked at the models and it seems most are going milder next week and that is earlier than I thought but really its better for us in the longer term. We need some storms to get snow pack in the northern and hopefully central plains. I know a broken record but its so important if we want and extended period of winter weather later this month and the start of the new year. Just seems to me with a neutral ENSO this is a year we will have nice cold shots but also some decent mild periods. I still believe before all is said and done temps for the winter (Dec-Feb) will be slightly above normal and precip above normal and snowfall above normal slightly as well. Saying that if the snow does not show up to the west of us in the next few weeks this can be a longer term problem but way to early to look at that. I know several of the last 10 winters or so the best in terms of winter weather has been later in February. With the neutral Enso I am seeing a back to so called normal winter where you have some cold in Dec like we are seeing and the hardest part of winter in January through early Feb and then a mild ending at the end of February. So yes nothing has changed with my forecast but again if new information comes in or I see the pattern not shaping up this way then I will make those changes and that is not easy for a stubborn old man lol