Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 8:07 am Just started paying attention to the MJO forecasting plots a week or two ago and the most notable thing is how bad the BOMM is going to be with its forecast intensity in the pacific

I agree. I have it going into 8 then petering out so it's not going to have much impact on the pattern esp if it remains in a weak phase or COD which is my expectation. I do not think it'll make it into Phase 1 or if it does, it won't be very strong. The SST's are all messed up in the PAcifc with that marine heatwave feeding the -PDO. Gulf of Alaska keeps reloading with storms so the SSE's there will continue to cool. Classic -PDO / La Nina situation unfolding. The only chance we got to get out of this d4readful pattern is for the right to retrograde to the West (that is over us) or have the -PDO weaken. If it can then we can get a -WPO which will help sharpen the ridge into Alaska more poleward. Then you get the -EPO and cross polar flow. A -PNA can work as long as you get the -WPO / -EPO combo. That combo is tough to get when the PDO is negative. It's more a kin of a positive PDO. We'll see I guess but my outlook for winter is still on a cautionary low expectation. I keep hearing about a nice December going but I'll believe it when and if I see changes later this month or not.

12Z GFS out to 16 days is the same pattern. -PNA, +EPO, +AO with a trough in the west, ridge in the east. We will continue to see weakening fronts heading our way, Best rains and severe wx chances remaining to our NW. We need that trough to shift east. If it locks in as is, it's going to be a long winter. Ensembles pretty much agree.

Nice win by Cincy today over My Raiders. Get ready for My Lions at 4:25pm on Fox! GO LIONS!!! Restore the roar! Grit!

A beauty today with a high of 71 currently.

CVG got to 72, DAY 71 and CMH 70 today.

Good morning all! The 70s today and on Election Day with the next rain chance coming Tues night into Wed. Late in the day on Tues for some of the western counties. Next system is due in the second half of the upcoming weekend with temps still above normal in the 60s. Both of these systems look to weaken IMO as they work into the area but we'll take what we can get.

Racking up records early around the region , cvg already breaking record hi low for the day

I love having the model data an hour earlier until March! I just wish that we had something interesting for us locally to track.

Good Morning and another mild day ahead of us. Concerning the system later Tuesday into Wednesday I have went a tad higher on rainfall. Why because what is happening to the west and yes the moisture will be less as it heads east but with higher totals falling to the west I am going .33-.75. So far November is playing out like we thought and each week will get busier as warm and cold air collide more often. The tropical system late in the week or weekend. I am still no sold on this hitting the mainland USA. Some models show this as a tropical storm hitting the mainland and others having it going toward northern Mexico. I am going with the latter as it gets to busy to the north during this period and this should push the system further south. Will talk more about this system if it does take the more northward track in the proper section.

More leaves will be coming down early this week with gusty southerly winds continuing ahead of our next system.

Wrong side of the tracks

Evergreen drought damage continues to show , the young and the old . Those two hundred foot plus norway spruce in the background are dead and a couple of the 30-40 foot already dead, with about 4 more on this property that will probably be dead come spring

If anyone is interested, there will be a special evening of prayer for the Election at 6 o'clock today.

Currently 70 here in G'ville and progged for around 74 today.

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72 as of 1pm at CVG... What month again is this?

Les, we will be cutting grass well into December the way things are going. For snow lovers, this weather is sickening!!

Pete1 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 2:23 pm Les, we will be cutting grass well into December the way things are going. For snow lovers, this weather is sickening!!

I hear you Pete! It's going to be a while before anything wintry comes our way.

Sure will be glad when showers get here to help with cleansing out the air of pollen e.g.

Currently 72 here in G'ville.

75 here and at CVG. That looks to be the high of the day for my hood.

Both CVG / DAY reached 76 and CMH 75 today.

DAY's 76 tied for the date from 1975 and 2003!

Little more uncertainty whether or not the northern part of the line of showers for Tuesday late and Wednesday morning maintains it’s strength with moderate rain at times or begins to slowly weaken as it moves into our area (per usual), especially Ohio with more light showers as the rule. I give it 50/50 , so I’ll keep amounts same .50” or less for cvg/dayton/ Cbus

it was not bad here yesterday with highs in the upper 50s. pretty avg for this time of year but they are showing low 70s today and wed. we also currently have wild fires going on here. the lack of rainfall is the biggest issue . the high temps and low dew points just add fuel to the fire

Good morning all! Happy Election Day! The weather isn't too bad today as most of the rain holds off until late. I agree with Bgoney. My stance has been that the front weakens as it moves in so lower rainfall amounts is the way to go. Next chance for showers comes Sat night into Sunday. Temps are above normal thru the entire forecast period.

Good Morning and nice day for election day though a bit breezy. No changes with the forecast as we will continue to be mild and becoming busier as each week occurs in November. There was some severe weather to the southwest of us yesterday but not expecting that to be heading this way. Central part of the country got some nice rains the past few days and no it won't end the drought but it does look to me the beginning of the end for the drought in many areas. Droughts come on slowly and when they end its the same way. May take until spring for many areas and hopefully much of the rain falls with the ground not frozen and for November that is no doubt the case. Still going with my updated forecast amount on rain with the current system and I agree lower than the models and the NWS are throwing out there and went with .33-.75. Had to go a tad higher just because some of the moisture is coming up from the GOM and that tends to raise amounts somewhat.

CVG officially broke the warmest high low yesterday at 61 degrees

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:03 am CVG officially broke the warmest high low yesterday at 61 degrees

The record high at CVG for today is 80. We will probably see 78 or get 79'ed again.