Re: Major Hurricane Milton
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 5:06 pm
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Not far at all, he lives off of Chantry canal which is in the SE area of Cape Coral. He may be headed to the shelters there!tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:58 pmFt. Myers could get more of the storm surge if this southward trend is correct with regards to the track.Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:51 pmHow far from the coast?winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:48 pm A friend of mine lives in Cape Coral near the Caloosahatchee river west of Ft Myers and is expecting the huge storm surge as the SW winds belt his area. He just remodeled after hurricane Ian!
IMO that would be a wise move, Joe.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 5:37 pmNot far at all, he lives off of Chantry canal which is in the SE area of Cape Coral. He may be headed to the shelters there!tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:58 pmFt. Myers could get more of the storm surge if this southward trend is correct with regards to the track.Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:51 pmHow far from the coast?winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:48 pm A friend of mine lives in Cape Coral near the Caloosahatchee river west of Ft Myers and is expecting the huge storm surge as the SW winds belt his area. He just remodeled after hurricane Ian!
Hi Joe,winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 5:37 pmNot far at all, he lives off of Chantry canal which is in the SE area of Cape Coral. He may be headed to the shelters there!tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:58 pmFt. Myers could get more of the storm surge if this southward trend is correct with regards to the track.Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:51 pmHow far from the coast?winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:48 pm A friend of mine lives in Cape Coral near the Caloosahatchee river west of Ft Myers and is expecting the huge storm surge as the SW winds belt his area. He just remodeled after hurricane Ian!
Bgoney that is a great point. The further south I would expect less in the weakening department. Yes some cooler waters nearer the coast so that would weaken it some but with a further south track and if that is the case I like strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4 when it hits land. I see already that have raised the storm surge predictions higher further south. Less sheer and this storm can stay stronger longer. Still expecting winds over 100 in Orlando which is rather wild in itself.
I had to break for dinner but I'm back now. I agree, excellent point Bgoney! The hurricane has so much momentum as it should be increasing with forward speed as time goes on as the trough begins to pick it up and move it more to the NE towards FL. Now, we do need to see about another EWRC because as we saw today, that did weaken it a bit. Then once the new eye formed, it has been able to rebound due to a great environment (low shear and very warm SST's). Now the thing to watch for with regards to weakening significantly would be if we had another EWRC combined with stronger wind shear. Then, you could easily get down to the NHC forecast of a Cat 3 - 125 mph at landfall. If we don't see an EWRC combine with the shear, then IMO you'd be looking at a higher end 3 if not a Cat 4 which Tim did mention. That will be the key IMO with regards to its strength as it approaches the coast Wed night / early Thurs morning.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:23 pmBgoney that is a great point. The further south I would expect less in the weakening department. Yes some cooler waters nearer the coast so that would weaken it some but with a further south track and if that is the case I like strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4 when it hits land. I see already that have raised the storm surge predictions higher further south. Less sheer and this storm can stay stronger longer. Still expecting winds over 100 in Orlando which is rather wild in itself.
No doubt Tim! 2024 ranks right up there with 2005 most certainly. Here is the last visible loop since the sun is setting. So we'll have to switch to IR.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:41 pm Les before all is said and done this year may be the worst Hurricane system for the mainland USA. Sure we may not get the predicted storms but what counts is when they hit what kind of damage and loss of life is all that matters. I was not sure we would ever see a year worse than 2005 but my guess after Milton is gone this may be worse season.
Great post Tim! Absolutely correct. I was buying the low impact event as was the NHC when they reduced the probability down to like a 40% chance of development. But as you mentioned, once that energy from the Pacific got involved then Boom! It was off to the races! I will give the GFS some credit. It did not waiver much with regards to strength early on. Might be too far north with the track potentially, but it was hell bent for a while on a hurricane impacting FL. It did pretty good with Helene too.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:50 pm Love those images and what a difference between Milton and Helene with the structure of the storm. I don't remember seeing a circular eye much with Helene but with Milton it has almost the perfect storm. The energy that came from the Pacific worked into the western gulf of Mexico and just made this a strong storm. We this happen in the winter sometimes when just an upper system gets involved with a low at the surface and the two work together to form a strong storm. I believe last week models were still believed the system of systems would be elongated and it made sense if you looked at what was happening but getting that piece of energy to work across Mexico and join in on the fun just made this thing explode
I agree Les and I believe folks on here are on the same page. Sure it may not be 155 mph winds but 140 is enough to cause so many problems and yes I know in the bigger city like Tampa especially downtown many of the buildings have strong codes that can withstand a Cat 5 Hurricane. Saying that on the islands and even smaller towns in central and south Florida probably don't have those stronger codes. The flooding could be bad and since property insurance very seldom has flood insurance rebuilding is going to be tough at best to rebuild. I know many folks that go down to south and central Florida during the winter and I am sure they are worried about their houses down there, Many are in that area from Sarasota-Ft Myerstron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:54 pm There are a few models that are not weakening the storm substantially. When I say substantially I mean a Cat 3 as the NHC is forecasting. The GFS doesn't and the NAM doesn't either, The NAM isn't typically used in tropical weather forecasting as it has a bias to overdo storms, so I'm just reporting what some of the data is showing. A few of the hurricane models are still pretty strong with this thing too at landfall like the HMON and HAFS-B. So again, I think it boils down to how much shear impacts the strength and also the next EWRC. The storm surge will be prolific for somebody either way due to the angle that it is coming in as well as the momentum.
My folks and I have some friends from here in Greenville who are snowbirds and I believe their house is located in Cedar Key or Siesta Key e.g.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:02 pmI agree Les and I believe folks on here are on the same page. Sure it may not be 155 mph winds but 140 is enough to cause so many problems and yes I know in the bigger city like Tampa especially downtown many of the buildings have strong codes that can withstand a Cat 5 Hurricane. Saying that on the islands and even smaller towns in central and south Florida probably don't have those stronger codes. The flooding could be bad and since property insurance very seldom has flood insurance rebuilding is going to be tough at best to rebuild. I know many folks that go down to south and central Florida during the winter and I am sure they are worried about their houses down there, Many are in that area from Sarasota-Ft Myerstron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:54 pm There are a few models that are not weakening the storm substantially. When I say substantially I mean a Cat 3 as the NHC is forecasting. The GFS doesn't and the NAM doesn't either, The NAM isn't typically used in tropical weather forecasting as it has a bias to overdo storms, so I'm just reporting what some of the data is showing. A few of the hurricane models are still pretty strong with this thing too at landfall like the HMON and HAFS-B. So again, I think it boils down to how much shear impacts the strength and also the next EWRC. The storm surge will be prolific for somebody either way due to the angle that it is coming in as well as the momentum.
I agree about the GFS as well and it did a very good job with how strong this system ended up being
I had to look it up on a map and Cedar Key should be far enough north (based on the current projected path) that they will be spared the worst as far as wind and storm surge goes. Still a flash flood / heavy rain threat for sure.MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:31 pmMy folks and I have some friends from here in Greenville who are snowbirds and I believe their house is located in Cedar Key or Siesta Key e.g.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:02 pmI agree Les and I believe folks on here are on the same page. Sure it may not be 155 mph winds but 140 is enough to cause so many problems and yes I know in the bigger city like Tampa especially downtown many of the buildings have strong codes that can withstand a Cat 5 Hurricane. Saying that on the islands and even smaller towns in central and south Florida probably don't have those stronger codes. The flooding could be bad and since property insurance very seldom has flood insurance rebuilding is going to be tough at best to rebuild. I know many folks that go down to south and central Florida during the winter and I am sure they are worried about their houses down there, Many are in that area from Sarasota-Ft Myerstron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:54 pm There are a few models that are not weakening the storm substantially. When I say substantially I mean a Cat 3 as the NHC is forecasting. The GFS doesn't and the NAM doesn't either, The NAM isn't typically used in tropical weather forecasting as it has a bias to overdo storms, so I'm just reporting what some of the data is showing. A few of the hurricane models are still pretty strong with this thing too at landfall like the HMON and HAFS-B. So again, I think it boils down to how much shear impacts the strength and also the next EWRC. The storm surge will be prolific for somebody either way due to the angle that it is coming in as well as the momentum.
I agree about the GFS as well and it did a very good job with how strong this system ended up being