Absolute Vorticity

Just got back from Missouri. Time to get the grass cut. CVG got 89'ed as of 3pm but no doubt a 90 degree day is incoming for the contest. Should tack on a couple more early next week before the front comes in on Wed to cool us down. Low 80sby next weekend. That will feel good. No good soaking rains in the next 7+ days though.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 04, 2024 3:07 pm Just got back from Missouri. Time to get the grass cut. CVG got 89'ed as of 3pm but no doubt a 90 degree day is incoming for the contest. Should tack on a couple more early next week before the front comes in on Wed to cool us down. Low 80sby next weekend. That will feel good. No good soaking rains in the next 7+ days though.

Welcome back Les and cut my mother-n-laws grass this morning and probably lost 10lbs in water weight lol. No doubt 90 through Tuesday and no soaking rains though we may get a few showers here and there but nothing to write home. Going to be a heavy weight fight between the tropical system which will call the southeast home for several days and the really nice high pressure in Canada bringing down September air. Of course we are in the middle and could be a little back and forth later in the week and you could see a nice temp difference from north to south with some upper70's in northern Indiana and Ohio but still some low 90's in southern Kentucky. The track of the tropical system later in the week will determine if we can push the cold front further south or do we need to add some possible rain in southeast Kentucky which would produce more clouds for us.

Tropical systems can drive models nuts and we are still seeing that today. Hopefully by Monday the models come together but with this system I do understand why we are seeing different outputs

Welcome back Les and I hope that your Mom has a fun week in St. Louis!

One summer my folks, sister, maternal gandmother, and I went to the STL Zoo and it was a day that ended up in the 90s.

Currently 84 here in G'ville and progged for 86.

Thanks guys! It's good to be back! I have to go back out to STL next weekend to get Mom. After that, I am staying home for a while. Been on the road for the last 3 weekends!

Got the grass cut, trimmed, and edged. Will water plants tomorrow after work and pick a few maters for supper. I will have some fresh beans later in the week too. Time to relax for a couple of hours before bed.

Good Afternoon and not many changes in the forecast. Still some problems with the Wednesday through Friday forecast as I just have this gut feeling folks locally may still have some mid-upper 80's Wednesday and Thursday. The tropical system is just strong enough and close enough to stall the incoming cold front really close to us.

CVG / DAY reached 90 and CMH 92 today.

Good morning all! The biggest change to the forecast is to insert a small CYA chance POP for Tues and Wed for Cincy and vicinity. The best chance will be north for the I-70 Crew. I'm going 50% there. Most of us down Cincy way will probably remain dry. Otherwise, the low 90s today and tomorrow can be expected., Upper 80s Wed and Thurs with the low 80s coming in towards the weekend. It truly does look like a nice weekend upcoming.

As we approach mid Aug, we may get back into our NW Flow pattern again but until then, rain chances look slim the next week to 10 days.

Good Morning and a nice warm to hot week in store though by the weekend we get some drier air with lower humidity. I agree with Les we need to add some chances of rain Tuesday and Wednesday as the front does have some available moisture. Sort of a back and forth forecast Wednesday through Friday and I will try and explain. We have the push of the front here Wednesday and yes its a strong front for early August. Not exactly how far south it can go because of the tropical system in the southeast. So this leads to the front lingering in the Ohio Valley for a few days and can even work back towards the north Thursday before finally moving through completely on Friday. Then we watch the tropical system move northward starting later Wednesday but does it go straight north like the Euro and CMC are showing or does it sort back up a tad and sit more inland before heading north like the gfs shows though the gfs overnight trended further east. If the gfs pans out this can throw some showers into southeast Kentucky and we may even have some clouds with the system.

Once the tropical system passes to the east and heads out to sea we see a nice weekend with sinking air and lower humidity. Then what happens next week and does the mcs train return. The answer is it may return and normally I would dismiss this happening in mid-August but the monsoon season in the southwest is just having a terrible time getting going plus the Bermuda High looks again to park itself in the Atlantic instead of inland.

Tim... nice post! The monsoon season in the west will continue to struggle as long as the heat ridge remains in place out West. That looks to be the case for the foreseeable future. If the ridge migrates east towards the lower Plains, then the flow around the high would allow for Pacific moisture to develop across the SW. It remains to be seen if that will happen or not going forward. For us... after the warmth of this week, a nice trough develops late this week on into next week for comfortable conditions. Then as I have eluded to, we'll see if the NW Flow pattern returns by mid month. To me, that will depend on the tropics. Models are showing more ATL tropical activity after 8/10 as the Cape Verde season starts to get underway. Of course right now, that is speculation until we get closer. I still believe that for the next 7-10 days, by and large, our weather will be uneventful here locally.

SPC does have a marginal risk issued for Cincy on northward for tomorrow. I still say the I-70 Crew is most at risk with the frontal boundary trying to drop in from the north. Lesser chances for those of us to the south and IMO the reason is due to Debby slowing the front down and not allowing it to make more southward progression. Tropical systems can act as atmospheric roadblocks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 9:09 am SPC does have a marginal risk issued for Cincy on northward for tomorrow. I still say the I-70 Crew is most at risk with the frontal boundary trying to drop in from the north. Lesser chances for those of us to the south and IMO the reason is due to Debby slowing the front down and not allowing it to make more southward progression. Tropical systems can act as atmospheric roadblocks.

Exactly Les and saw that last week and thought a slowing of the front would occur. Even though the cold front is strong for this time of year its still no match for a tropical system that stalls.

Another great video by Brian but I do have one item I disagree on with him and this happens very very seldom. He mentioned Charleston,SC is in a drought but last month they had over 8 inches of rain and though they were behind entering the month they are slightly above at the moment. Very similar to us where we started out dry but ended up nice in the latter half of July. So that is why I look at the drought maps but also look what has happened the previous month or so to really get a more updated forecast. Either way the drought will be long gone by the end of this week.

Regional radar currently shows a batch of rain over N IN and NW Ohio dropping SE. It looks like it is weakening as it does so. Perhaps our I-70 Crew will get scraped by it. Fingers crossed! 12Z CAMs don't even show it lol

Per the 12Z GFS, we may need to include a small chance POP for Friday as the deeper trough comes in that delivers a much drier air mass to us over the weekend. Again... the next 7-10 days does look fairly quiet minus a few areas that we've noted on our forum in previous posts.

12Z GFS continues to develop a Gulf tropical system this weekend on into early next week. If correct, we'll have to see how that impacts the pattern over the Lower 48 as well.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 12:25 pm 12Z GFS continues to develop a Gulf tropical system this weekend on into early next week. If correct, we'll have to see how that impacts the pattern over the Lower 48 as well.

Hey Les and the tropics are getting busy in a hurry. The mjo is in the correct phase for tropical development and it shows. The sahara dust is really not causing any problems and its been a tad further north in the Atlantic this season. The GOM as we know is loaded so no problem with fuel for these systems. Mother Nature still trying to even things out and since the normal southwest monsoon season so far is a dud she is going to try and even things out with plenty of action in the GOM.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 12:33 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 12:25 pm 12Z GFS continues to develop a Gulf tropical system this weekend on into early next week. If correct, we'll have to see how that impacts the pattern over the Lower 48 as well.

Hey Les and the tropics are getting busy in a hurry. The mjo is in the correct phase for tropical development and it shows. The sahara dust is really not causing any problems and its been a tad further north in the Atlantic this season. The GOM as we know is loaded so no problem with fuel for these systems. Mother Nature still trying to even things out and since the normal southwest monsoon season so far is a dud she is going to try and even things out with plenty of action in the GOM.

The East Pac has 4 named systems and the ATL basin has Debby. No doubt Tim that the reasons you mentioned are contributing factors. Wonderful post!

89 as of 2pm at CVG. I will no doubt be updating the contest after work today with regards to a 90 degree day occurring. Same deal for tomorrow.

My son in Wausau expecting another 1-2 inches overnight. Seems like he took the heavy rain that fell in Greenville,Sc from 2019-2023 and transferred that to Wausau. He mentioned having problems just keeping up with the mowing plus he has thousands of trees nearby and the sun has a hard time drying out the soil.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:42 pm My son in Wausau expecting another 1-2 inches overnight. Seems like he took the heavy rain that fell in Greenville,Sc from 2019-2023 and transferred that to Wausau. He mentioned having problems just keeping up with the mowing plus he has thousands of trees nearby and the sun has a hard time drying out the soil.

I wish your son was able to move back into the Tri-state Tim esp come winter! He seems to be a precip magnet!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:42 pm My son in Wausau expecting another 1-2 inches overnight. Seems like he took the heavy rain that fell in Greenville,Sc from 2019-2023 and transferred that to Wausau. He mentioned having problems just keeping up with the mowing plus he has thousands of trees nearby and the sun has a hard time drying out the soil.

Hi Tim, southern WI under a SVR T-storm Watch until midnight CDT. Thankfully, he's just in the heavy rain.

CVG got to 91, DAY 90 and CMH 93 today.

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Good morning all! One more hot day is in store before a small t-storm chance occurs tonight into Wed. The mid to U80s Thurs and Fri will give way to a taste of early Fall this weekend. Guidance now has highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s! Isn't that delightful?