Absolute Vorticity

Great Posts from everyone above. The cold shots do have a shot by the last 10 days of November. How cold and exactly where the main cold heads is still up in the air this far away. The mjo is interesting and will no doubt be watching that over the next week. If we can just stay away from phases 4-6 this winter that would be a nice change. Concerning La Nina and I believe the lower end we have talked about for sometime is the way to go. Early November so I still have some confidence of some decent winter weather

Looks like another Mjo wave getting ready to amplify in phase 2 coinciding with what the models are picking up around the 21st. November phase 2 temp anomalies November phase 3 temp anomalies It might be short lived but it’s nice to see some tropical convective forcing. 10mb northern arctic stratosphere/troposphere are warming also. I’m kind of wondering if this is feedback from the insanely warm waters in the pdo region poleward through global circulation. (Hadley/farell/polar cell transport). We would really be in business if we had a -qbo

It is really nice to see the MJO staying more amp'ed up then modeling shows. Truly it has been the opposite the last few winters and why my calls have been the way they have been. This could be our saving grace should the MJO remain strong and hit the colder phases from time to time. I think it goes back into the warmer phases sometime in early to Mid December but should take a cooler phase tour again around Christmas Time if the current trends are correct.

DT's preview of the 2024-2025 winter weather outlook: