Absolute Vorticity

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AV COMMUNITY!!

My Dad is a member of and a writer for Convention of States and last night he and I watched an interesting interview with Benjamin Franklin via a gentleman named Darren York who portrayed Franklin. Mr. York is a COS member from Texas.

One of my favorite Independence Day movies is 1776 from 1972 which stars William Daniels, Ken Howard, Howard da Silva, Blythe Danner e.g. etc.

HAPPY BIG 50TH BIRTHDAY CHRISTIAN!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy, and also have a great Independence Day!!

Happy Birthday Christian as well as to our Great Country!

Love seeing that big MCS to our West even though I am smoking those pork butts. It is what it is and I'll deal with it. Will need to add more wood then normal to keep it hot when the rain tries to cool it down. Models are not handling the MCS well. They are weakening it too quickly and keep the bulk of the rain north of the river. I think we'll at least see one period of rain in NKY but the best action may indeed stay north. Will continue to monitor.

SPC has upgraded the Tri-state area to a slight risk now for today with a 5% tornado risk and 15% wind. Interesting.... SPC meso page shows weak CAPE already and just to our north and west, much better shear then we had yesterday too.

Good Morning Les and what time is dinner lol. I believe we see some rain and probably more development south of the MCS. This morning I explain that the MCS was moving east/northeast and that is exactly what the complex is doing. There is a low attached and this has helped in keeping the MCS going longer than normal but also it pulls it further north instead of the south/southeast movement we often see with these complexes.

So no doubt a wait and see game but the humidity is way up so it won't take to much to spark off a thundershower anytime today. I saw we did hit the 100 degree for feels like temp yesterday and I believe that is either the 2nd or 3rd time this summer so not anything out of the ordinary. Should not see any 90's over the next week or so and this will get us into the middle of July so not bad. Would love to see more rain and yes there are chances over the next 7 days but we are in July and usually these are more isolated in nature but that does not include today's MCS.

Have a great 4th and will be heading to my mother-n-laws house this afternoon and a big cookout with many of the staples of brats,mets,hot dogs and all the sides as well and maybe just maybe a beer or three

Good morning Tim! Happy 4th to you and the family! The pork butts are for the party on Saturday. The good news for late afternoon and evening plans is that the atmosphere should get worked over pretty good so fireworks displays like last night, should be okay IMO. As usual we shall see! It's a nowcast for sure. We need the rain so I won't complain but it sucks trying to run a smoker when it's pouring! But it can be done.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:22 am Good morning Tim! Happy 4th to you and the family! The pork butts are for the party on Saturday. The good news for late afternoon and evening plans is that the atmosphere should get worked over pretty good so fireworks displays like last night, should be okay IMO. As usual we shall see! It's a nowcast for sure. We need the rain so I won't complain but it sucks trying to run a smoker when it's pouring! But it can be done.

Les my uncle for years would roast a pig on the 4th. Tons of work but the taste was wonderful. He was a butcher for Kahn's for over 40 years. Has been several years since he last roasted a pig and of course he is in his upper 80's so unlikely we see another pig for the 4th.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:25 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:22 am Good morning Tim! Happy 4th to you and the family! The pork butts are for the party on Saturday. The good news for late afternoon and evening plans is that the atmosphere should get worked over pretty good so fireworks displays like last night, should be okay IMO. As usual we shall see! It's a nowcast for sure. We need the rain so I won't complain but it sucks trying to run a smoker when it's pouring! But it can be done.

Les my uncle for years would roast a pig on the 4th. Tons of work but the taste was wonderful. He was a butcher for Kahn's for over 40 years. Has been several years since he last roasted a pig and of course he is in his upper 80's so unlikely we see another pig for the 4th.

That's awesome Tim! I love a good old fashioned pig roast! I have not been to one in a long time myself.

The complex looks great on the radar and still holding strong. Some activity is trying to form to the southeast of the main complex and almost like a mini warm front to the south of us and there is going to be a boundary between where the rain comes down for several hours and just your normal pop up storms. Of course where we are located is near that dividing line and of course the further north and west the better shot of several hours of a nice moderate rainfall. Wish we could expand that and really with the last few systems there has been a small ridge in the Carolina's that seems to want to move west and stop these systems from coming to far east. Still believe most folks get rain today but could be a big difference between several hours of needed rainfall or a 15 minute downpour

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:31 am The complex looks great on the radar and still holding strong. Some activity is trying to form to the southeast of the main complex and almost like a mini warm front to the south of us and there is going to be a boundary between where the rain comes down for several hours and just your normal pop up storms. Of course where we are located is near that dividing line and of course the further north and west the better shot of several hours of a nice moderate rainfall. Wish we could expand that and really with the last few systems there has been a small ridge in the Carolina's that seems to want to move west and stop these systems from coming to far east. Still believe most folks get rain today but could be a big difference between several hours of needed rainfall or a 15 minute downpour

Tim... the good news though is that our atmosphere down here won't be as worked over as it will be to the north so that was a good call by the SPC to upgrade the severe wx outlook for later this afternoon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:32 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:31 am The complex looks great on the radar and still holding strong. Some activity is trying to form to the southeast of the main complex and almost like a mini warm front to the south of us and there is going to be a boundary between where the rain comes down for several hours and just your normal pop up storms. Of course where we are located is near that dividing line and of course the further north and west the better shot of several hours of a nice moderate rainfall. Wish we could expand that and really with the last few systems there has been a small ridge in the Carolina's that seems to want to move west and stop these systems from coming to far east. Still believe most folks get rain today but could be a big difference between several hours of needed rainfall or a 15 minute downpour

Tim... the good news though is that our atmosphere down here won't be as worked over as it will be to the north so that was a good call by the SPC to upgrade the severe wx outlook for later this afternoon.

I agree Les and these storms can be quite strong and though they might not last long you can get plenty of heavy rain,some hail and of course strong winds in a short period of time. The tornado threat is there but rather low imo but never say never and also these storms build up quickly but also die down quickly and when that happens you can be on the receiving of some strong but cool winds as the storm collaspes.

I think the hail threat is extremely low due to the warmer profile of the atmosphere. Wind and heavy rains are the biggest issue as you mentioned as well as localized flash flooding. CG lightning is also an issue for those of us that are doing something outside. Finally the TOR threat is there (quick spin up) due to a weak surface low working across the region.

I agree hail is on the lower end and even if we get some its going to be minor but like you mentioned with the low in the Ohio Valley you can get that spin in the atmosphere. Lightning as you mentioned could be quite vivid and yes the localized flash flooding is a concern and with the recent dry weather this can become an issue even quicker. I know one thing is when the sun comes out just for a few minutes you can feel the humidity rise

With the rain in many areas of the central USA its been hard to get a heat wave started. Matter of fact Mother Nature decided to head west and find a home for a short period of time near the pacific coastline and also parts of the interior west. What I am starting to see and that is less rainfall in the southeast and this can help with the Bermuda High and that may expand westward once we get into the middle of July. Yes we have had a few tropical systems but normally these kind of slow down in July and start to pick up once again in August. My son is getting hit with more rainfall and expecting at least another inch by Friday. He has a pump for his pond to keep the water circulating and he is almost to the point where he needs to unplug the pump because the water is so high in the pond. Last year in the fall the pond probably was sitting at about 1-2 feet deep in the middle and what a turnaround in a short period of time

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:41 am I agree hail is on the lower end and even if we get some its going to be minor but like you mentioned with the low in the Ohio Valley you can get that spin in the atmosphere. Lightning as you mentioned could be quite vivid and yes the localized flash flooding is a concern and with the recent dry weather this can become an issue even quicker. I know one thing is when the sun comes out just for a few minutes you can feel the humidity rise

Yes Sir.... dew is in the low 70s so it is very humid outside which will help with storm development as well as heavy rain. As usual, we are on the same page Tim. Per radar, the rain is closing in on my hood.

Got the smoker running a little hotter then usual and I threw another log on to try and combat the incoming rain which will be trying to cool the smoker down. It's going to be a challenging cook today but again, we need the rain so no complaints from me.

Hot off the presses from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Regional radar mosaic is quite active this morning as
thunderstorms continue to develop and persist across much of
southern/south-central Indiana. A pseudo-warm front wing is
also developing thunderstorms into portions of northern Kentucky
and soon, southeast Indiana. PoPs have been adjusted to the
latest radar trends and mesoscale factors through the early
afternoon.

The latest 12Z HRRR is likely too quick with the erosion of the
thunderstorm activity, so this increases uncertainty for the
overall CAM projections for the next, more concerning round of
development later this afternoon and early evening. With the 13Z
update, SPC introduced a Level 2 of 5 risk (Slight Risk
including 5% tornado) into southeast Indiana, northern
Kentucky, and portions of southwest Ohio. This scenario becomes
more plausible the faster the ongoing thunderstorm activity
clears, allowing for mass support northward ahead of an
approaching MCV. If enough clearing can occur, the potential
exists for discrete storms to persist within an environment of
strengthening deep- layer flow and backed low- level flow. The
magnitude of the backed flow may be largely dependent on the
remnant cold-pool air mass left behind modifies with afternoon
heating and moisture transport.

To the north of this morning`s thunderstorm activity, a broad
shield of light-moderate rain with embedded thunder is expected
through the rest of the morning. This should gradually decrease
in coverage as the thunderstorm activity to the south shifts
east. Additional, scattered thunderstorm activity will be
possible late this afternoon into the evening hours, but the
overall severe threat is limited.

While much of the previous discussion was focused on the severe
weather threat, the east to west corridor of thunderstorms this
morning may bring cause for locally heavy rainfall depending on
how quickly it propagates eastward. Southeast Indiana and
portions of northern Kentucky currently stand the best chance of
observing the locally heavy rainfall. This could lead to high
water in a few spots.

Nice post by the NWS and Les they are seeing the exact things we are seeing this morning. Usually these MCS complexes tend to fall apart after 9am or so unless you have a low pressure which is the case today. I agree with them about a small so called warm front in our area and that is why we are seeing development further north and east at the same time the MCS heads east/northeast

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:06 am Nice post by the NWS and Les they are seeing the exact things we are seeing this morning. Usually these MCS complexes tend to fall apart after 9am or so unless you have a low pressure which is the case today. I agree with them about a small so called warm front in our area and that is why we are seeing development further north and east at the same time the MCS heads east/northeast

The MCS is weakening overall as we lose the LLJ but we look to just get clipped by it. If we can clear out and get a little sunshine once this first round passes then watch out later this afternoon for sure. That is what we will need to be nowcasting.

Light rain has now begun here.

Looks like the first round heading into the tri-state and the models are not doing well but we can sort of forecast this without much help from them. Once that round moves southwest to northeast through the local area my guess is the sun comes back out and then later this afternoon some strong to severe storms should break out. No doubt something to watch as many folks have outdoor activities and many times at a park where shelter is not easy to find. Hopefully this first round can give us say .10-.30 and though we need much more it helps soften the ground somewhat and with any heavy rain later today maybe some of that can soak in the ground as well and keep the localized flooding down just a tad.

I agree Les the mcs has weakened somewhat but on the southern end we are seeing some decent thundershowers as there is just so much moisture available and like we mentioned sort of a warm/cold front that developed. Folks much further south in Kentucky will no doubt get hot today and just north of that area and I believe we are in that area some decent storms are going to fire. There is even a case later today of some training of the storms as the so called front just sits in the same area. Like you mentioned Les it will be a nowcast situation and one to watch closely

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:20 am I agree Les the mcs has weakened somewhat but on the southern end we are seeing some decent thundershowers as there is just so much moisture available and like we mentioned sort of a warm/cold front that developed. Folks much further south in Kentucky will no doubt get hot today and just north of that area and I believe we are in that area some decent storms are going to fire. There is even a case later today of some training of the storms as the so called front just sits in the same area. Like you mentioned Les it will be a nowcast situation and one to watch closely

Agreed Tim... so far, the rain is light here but that's good. Easier for me to deal with cooking and it is better to have it light to soak into the ground versus a monsoon. Waiting to see if we get any of the heavier action or does it miss us to the NW? That is the first question to be answered then the second question is what we talked about with regards to some clearing for some heating then we should get nailed later if that occurs.