Absolute Vorticity

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 10:11 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:34 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:32 am So I have been watching this one for slightly more selfish reasons; my family are going to be in Destin next week, and so looking at this I'm hoping I am correct in thinking that Beryl has kinda "cleaned out" the GOM for a few days at least so the likelihood of anything tropical messing with my Florida sunshine is pretty minimal. Am I being too optimistic?

Hey Dave and I believe your are correct and we are getting into the mid-summer pattern and that usually means less in the way of tropical systems in this part of the world though it looks to be a busy season I believe you should be just fine. Never been to Destin and many folks enjoy that area and will get down to that part of Florida in the next few years.

They don't call it the Redneck riviera for nothing, Tim! You should give it a go. Lot's of fun stuff to do there. Will be going deep sea fishing on Monday, I believe, and have a Dolphin Booze Cruise with my favorite power boat people on The Original Sea Blaster. Best booze cruise out there if you plan on going ever!

Thanks Dave for the information and a Booze Cruise is something I would enjoy. Just be my wife and I and we will go in the next 2 years. I will get with your when we finally start planning the trip

The city of Houston got hammered with this storm. The eye was south of the city and once it came inland it sort of stalled for several hours and when you are getting 2-3 inches an hour this adds up so quickly. Would not be surprised if we see some reports in the Houston metro that get over a foot of rainfall. The system is trying to work away finally from that area but is still moving quite slowly. The storm will pick up the pace later tonight and Tuesday as it heads this way.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:19 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 10:11 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:34 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:32 am So I have been watching this one for slightly more selfish reasons; my family are going to be in Destin next week, and so looking at this I'm hoping I am correct in thinking that Beryl has kinda "cleaned out" the GOM for a few days at least so the likelihood of anything tropical messing with my Florida sunshine is pretty minimal. Am I being too optimistic?

Hey Dave and I believe your are correct and we are getting into the mid-summer pattern and that usually means less in the way of tropical systems in this part of the world though it looks to be a busy season I believe you should be just fine. Never been to Destin and many folks enjoy that area and will get down to that part of Florida in the next few years.

They don't call it the Redneck riviera for nothing, Tim! You should give it a go. Lot's of fun stuff to do there. Will be going deep sea fishing on Monday, I believe, and have a Dolphin Booze Cruise with my favorite power boat people on The Original Sea Blaster. Best booze cruise out there if you plan on going ever!

Thanks Dave for the information and a Booze Cruise is something I would enjoy. Just be my wife and I and we will go in the next 2 years. I will get with your when we finally start planning the trip

Definitely! I'll be glad to help!

1607 2 SW Jasper Jasper TX 3090 9402 Emergency manager reports damage to condominiums/apartments in west Jasper. Search and rescue ongoing. Time estimated by radar. (LCH)

1607 1 SW Jasper Jasper TX 3091 9401 Jasper County Emergency Management Director relayed to the NWS that a tornado struck the city of Jasper. A condo building took a direct hit. A tornado debris signature by radar. (LCH)

1815 Timpson Shelby TX 3191 9440 Possible tornado damage. Several buildings damaged in Timpson ... including City Hall. Roof removed from City Hall. Several trees down ... and 2 cars thrown at an intersection. (SHV)

1920 9 NNW Keachi Caddo LA 3230 9399 Reports of likely tornado damage off of Horton Road. Radar had TDS at the time. (SHV)

1930 12 S Haughton Bossier LA 3236 9351 Video of a tornado near Elm Grove sent via social media. Time and position estimated from TDS via radar. (SHV)

1941 2 NW Combes Cameron TX 2626 9775 [Landspout] City of Combes shared picture of landspout northeast of Woods Road just before 3 pm. Radar estimated time and location. (BRO)

1952 3 SSE Powhatan Natchitoches LA 3184 9317 Video of a tornado sent via social media. (SHV)

1958 6 NNE Longview Gregg TX 3260 9472 Substantial damage to pool house and two big pine trees downed along Meadowchase Trail. (SHV)

2015 6 E Benton Bossier LA 3269 9364 *** 1 FATAL *** Bossier Parish Sheriff reports a tree fell onto a mobile home just east of Benton near Cypress Black Bayou. (SHV)

2120 UNK 1 WNW Hughes Springs Cass TX 3300 9464 Law enforcement reports tree down in Hughes Springs. Tornado possible. (SHV)

2147 4 NNW Shongaloo Webster LA 3299 9331 Shongaloo firefighter reports tree down on vehicle on Sand Hill Road. (SHV)

2150 9 SW Emerson Columbia AR 3303 9332 Shongaloo firefighter reports tornado confirmed on the ground at the Louisiana-Arkansas state line along Hwy 19/159. (SHV)

2301 UNK East Camden Ouachita AR 3361 9274 A report of downed power lines and poles was shared with us on social media. (LZK)

0000 Sparkman Dallas AR 3392 9285 Broadcast media shared a picture of a tornado from a viewer in the Sparkman area from earlier this evening. This is most likely the cause of the trees downed in Sparkman. (LZK)

0000 UNK Sparkman Dallas AR 3392 9285 Dallas County OEM reports trees downed in the town of Sparkman from a storm that moved through the area earlier this evening. (LZK)

0329 4 E Lamont Jefferson AR 3410 9220 Radar confirmed tornado - radar debris signature. (LZK)

0330 UNK England Lonoke AR 3454 9197 Large tree limbs blown down and and snapped. (LZK)

0335 5 WSW Sulphur Springs Jefferson AR 3415 9220 Trees blown down ... a tree on an outbuilding ... and another tree on a powerline. A carport was also moved. These reports were along Jed Road and Samuel Road southwest of Sulphur Springs. (LZK)

0354 1 N Pastoria Jefferson AR 3437 9204 Radar confirmed tornado just east of Pine Bluff Arsenal ... near the town of Pastoria. (LZK)

1018 UNK Alicia Lawrence AR 3590 9108 Trees blown onto powerlines at Alicia. (LZK)

1118 2 NNW Hammondsville White AR 3520 9209 Small tornado captured by security camera. Based on video evidence ... tornado rated a weak EF0 with maximum winds approximately 65 mph. Damage confined to backyard play equipment. (LZK)

Track was just west of Indy

So far the highest total I have seen in the Houston area was 14.88 inches. Many reports in the 5-8 inch range though a few had lower totals but several with higher totals. They have a heat advisory down there today and I can only imagine how humid it is with all the water around.

A tropical wave out in the far Eastern ATL, has a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days. Right now, it's pretty sad on satellite so we'll just have to wait and see I guess.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

The tropical wave has a 60% chance now in the next 5 days.

I saw that Les and of course models having big time problems as the latest gfs has the system coming straight across the southern gulf straights directly into Texas. That of course will not happen and again the models on that possible outcome just gets out of whack because it picks up different times and where the storm may be located but we will not see one hit the panhandle of Florida and then move directly west along the gulf coast. Again it may hit Texas but not how the model shows. I believe models during the tropical season always have more problems with weaker systems and of course once they form the models do better as you would aspect.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jul 30, 2024 8:12 am I saw that Les and of course models having big time problems as the latest gfs has the system coming straight across the southern gulf straights directly into Texas. That of course will not happen and again the models on that possible outcome just gets out of whack because it picks up different times and where the storm may be located but we will not see one hit the panhandle of Florida and then move directly west along the gulf coast. Again it may hit Texas but not how the model shows. I believe models during the tropical season always have more problems with weaker systems and of course once they form the models do better as you would aspect.

The GFS has also been stalling it off the Gulf Coast for a while too. Euro keeps it off the SE Coast. A lot of model spread right now with this one.

I know this is way to early but going to ask as but if this develops when would it potentially hit Florida as I have a trip planned for August 12 to Orlando.

Pepper wrote: ↑Tue Jul 30, 2024 10:14 am I know this is way to early but going to ask as but if this develops when would it potentially hit Florida as I have a trip planned for August 12 to Orlando.

It should be a few days before the 12th based on the current guidance.

I sure do hope so first time for my daughter to fly so hopefully we have good weather and are able to go.

We are still looking at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves thru the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the N Gulf and Florida should keep an eye on this wave.

The wave moving thru The DR and Haiti now (heading towards the Gulf and / or FL) has a 50% chance to develop in the next couple of days with an 80% chance now in the next 5 days. This one is likely to become Debby at some point.

Good Morning and if the current forecast holds up the CMC once again will be the first one to show this path. Again the CMC picks out these paths and sometimes in the winter with storms but ends up messing up once the storm gets closer. Second place would be the gfs as it did have the disturbed weather further west and the the Euro ends up last and the reason is it mainly had the storm hitting the coasts of the Carolina's. This storm may get to them later and that model has come around with more action west of Florida.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 7:15 am Good Morning and if the current forecast holds up the CMC once again will be the first one to show this path. Again the CMC picks out these paths and sometimes in the winter with storms but ends up messing up once the storm gets closer. Second place would be the gfs as it did have the disturbed weather further west and the the Euro ends up last and the reason is it mainly had the storm hitting the coasts of the Carolina's. This storm may get to them later and that model has come around with more action west of Florida.

The Euro, which normally is terrible with tropical storms, had the storm further East the entire time. The GFS has come around to the Euro's solution. The CMC is also now east as well unfortunately. Looking like FL and the East Coast will be impacted by this system and not us the way the models are trending atm.

NHC is going to have an 11am advisory on what will be PTC #4 located over Eastern Cuba.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION PASSING OVER WESTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 81.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

As stated earlier, this one is likely to become TS Debby. The official intensity forecast keeps it as a strong TS in the next 48 hours. The NHC track has her hitting the Big Bend of FL then re-emerging over water off the SE Coast and flooding the heck out of the Carolinas next week. Then she eventually moves out to sea.

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From Sat ...

0130 73 2 E Dania Beach AMZ651 FL 2606 8011 Mesonet station XDAN Dania Pier measured wind gust of 63 kts or 73 mph. (MFL)

0133 73 3 NE Dania Beach AMZ651 FL 2609 8011 Mesonet station XPEG Port Everglades measured 73 mph wind gust. (MFL)