Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 4:26 pm A low slowly strengthening along the KY / TN border is an ideal track for Cincinnati. 18Z NAM has 0.27". 18Z RGEM has 1-3" across the area. Slower moving system and the later arrival after 4 or 5pm Fri.

I have both of those models starting things around 2pm.

SREF is north so that's something to watch. We want the system to track further north but too far north and we get mixing issues.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:40 pm After Reading ILNs FA Les posted , I think they dozed off in mid write-up

I did as well

This is the best looking Euro run out of the last four cycles.

Let’s get it Friday!

Watching the models to see which way they will go. North,South, or disappear.

00z NAM is colder but still the weakest solution of the bunch. This run did slow it down though which is good for accumulation as more will fall later in the day.

Road impacts will likely be minimal from this during the day. It’s after sunset when temps drop that there will likely be some tricky spots.

If we see heavier rates, the snow can overcome the warm ground and produce more widespread travel issues during the day. Rates will be very important.

Big European run for the tri-state!

No surprise here that the NBM continues to increase amounts locally.

This is starting to look even more interesting! I noted that we needed to watch for a further north and wetter solution and so far the models are beginning to play ball with that idea.

Models are showing the following QPF amounts for CVG.

6Z NAM - 0.21"
0Z GFS - 0.14"
0Z Euro - 0.37"

6Z HRRR - 1" of snow isolated 2" amounts possible for Cincy just north of the river.
0Z RGEM - 1" of snow isolated 2" amounts possible.
3Z SREF plume shows around an inch for most folks on the mean.

Wow @ that Euro run.... The Euro is either off its rocker, or it is trying to obtain its Kingly status again. 6Z run will be interesting to see. I think that starts running at 7am or something.

CB's overnight blog post has a first call map up of 1-3". That is a fair call right now IMO.


https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=63972

Meso analysis this morning shows a 1010 MB low West of Chicago and that is our system for today that will be skirting by to our north dragging a cold front in here so we can cool down for tomorrow's system. Speaking of tomorrow's system... that is a 1004 MB low that has come ashore now along the Wash / OR border.

UKIE came way north to join the party and has 0.30" of QPF for the Tri-state.

Updated snowfall forecast map will be posted later this morning.

6Z GFS coming in with 0.19" of QPF at CVG.

Going with qpf totals for the region .10-.25” . After losing some of that to warm wet ground temps and surface temps , going with a half inch to 2” snow accumulations for the region. Hope for the best , expect the worst

6Z RGEM bumped up the QPF a tad and it now shows isolated 4" amounts over NKY.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:11 am 6Z RGEM bumped up the QPF a tad and it now shows isolated 4" amounts over NKY.

The even higher resolution version has a weenie band similar to the Euro.

Here's the QPF from the same model. What I like about this image is not necessarily the amounts, but rather the illustration of how banding works. Some areas score big and others not so much. Such is the nature of the game and I expect that to be the situation here as well.

Like the looks on those maps Trev. I think most folks will get an inch or so of snow out of the deal. However, if we do see a couple of these weenie bands develop, 3"+ of snow would certainly be possible in isolated locations. It is almost impossible for a weather model to accurately place these heavier bands since there are a lot of mesoscale factors at play. I will say this.... If we see the 12Z models today with these weenie bands still showing up, then we will have no choice but to say 1-2" with isolated higher amounts possible or something to that effect. Seeing where that better frontogenic forcing sets up on the SPC meso page tomorrow should give us a clue as well as surface low track. Hoping we see it track along the TN / KY border (on the KY side) for best QPF potential.

Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.

Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.

Hey Tim , I felt like this range would be the majority of amounts for the whole region , so went with it . There could always be isolated higher amounts in every situation , can always bump it up a bit if it looks like higher amounts become more widespread in future modeling