Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:30 am 12z NAM continues to show our issues big time. The main reason is that the surface low is weak (what Les mentioned) and is still developing which puts us in an unfavorable position. Really just bad timing and nothing else but thats always a factor in weather. Better precip is east of us as the low begins to strengthen.

The NAM is transferring the energy to a developing coastal low which is the biggest reason why it is weak and we get dry slotted so bad on this run.

12z HRRR tries to lessen the dry slot and still brings a decent snowfall for most.

12z RGEM has the dry slot and it has been one of the more generous models until now.

Even the ICON, which has been showing a 4-6" type of event (overdone I think) is even lowering down to a 3-4" event, which is still overdone. Point is, the dry slot option is becoming increasingly more likely IMO. I will issue my final call this evening after work, but if I continue to see these trends, I will have no choice but to lower my forecast, which is already lower then some to begin with.

Edited to add the Icon trends. After clicking on the link, hit the play button.


https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... t=loop&mc=

The main low is now at 996 MB over Olympia, Washington per SPC mesopage.

You can see the gap in between the two areas of snow at Hour 42 on the 12Z GFS. Sorry guys... I wish I could control this. I am probably just as frustrated, as some of you are. Maybe more! We still get some light snow late Thurs night into Fri morning. The trends are clear though. N IN, N OH, and S Mich should receive the heaviest accumulations of 4"-6"+ Our I-70 Folks should still be well within the 1-3" range and for us on No Man's Land... some folks will see less then an inch in my opinion.

You can clearly see the reduction in QPF here from past GFS runs.

Yeah it looks like the GFS caved to the NAM. Will be adjusting my map a bit.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:54 am Yeah it looks like the GFS caved to the NAM. Will be adjusting my map a bit.

Everything is. NAM, Euro, EPS have lead the way.

12Z CMC has also caved.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:57 am 12Z CMC has also caved.


qpf_acc-imp.us_ov.png

lol , finally arriving to the ballpark

Heck... I am going to go ahead and issue my final call right now. I already know what the Euro will show.

CVG Land 1" or less
I-70 Crew: 1-3"

Good lord it's almost comical how everyone around us is getting snow.

MJSun wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:00 am Good lord it's almost comical how everyone around us is getting snow.

Yes Ma'am. We truly are in No Man's Land for snowfall.

SZW issuance up to 48%

Les they are still saying 3-4 inches with possible 1 additions from lake effect Sunday up here in my neck of the woods.

Lock in the 15Z RAP

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:57 am 12Z CMC has also caved.


qpf_acc-imp.us_ov.png

You can add the UKIE to the cave as well. The trend is NOT our friend this time.

The OV and keeping one's stomach right side UP!

Updated forecast...

Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:29 am Les they are still saying 3-4 inches with possible 1 additions from lake effect Sunday up here in my neck of the woods.

The further north you are, the better with this system, Dave! Good luck my friend!

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:30 am Lock in the 15Z RAP

The 15Z and 21Z RAP are always a hoot!

12z Euro caves as well. Looks like 1-2” will do it at best.

Writing is on the wall as far as I'm concerned.

12Z Euro QPF

CVG - 0.10"
HAO - 0.15"
MGY - 0.19"
DAY - 0.19"
CMH - 0.24"
FGX - 0.10"

Here's a look at the 12z snow maps from the models all in one spot. Did not include HRRR as it doesn't go out far enough to show total snow...

CB's first call...