1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

[tron777]

0.28" of QPF at CVG from the 12Z GFS. We get some snow going over to light rain / drizzle once the rate of precip decreases. Can't really argue with that concept. Dynamic cooling processes will help in the snow dept but once the rates lessen it'll go over to rain.

Came here to say pretty much the same thing you did. Good post! Definitely noticing a bias toward the southern half of the area for best show totals. I will reflect that in my map update today.

IMO that has always been the case.

[tron777]

12Z CMC has an inch or two for the area. IMO that is probably the ceiling with this system. I like a 1-3" event at this point, with the heaviest SE and lightest NW.

[Trevor]

First call followed by my updated call...

[dce]

FWIW the UKMET still shows a little love. A trend that is showing up on the majority of the models is a little more snow in Indiana that dies out as it heads toward Ohio.

[tron777]

First call followed by my updated call...

I like the updated call. That looks really good to me Trev. Nice work!

[tron777]

FWIW the UKMET still shows a little love. A trend that is showing up on the majority of the models is a little more snow in Indiana that dies out as it heads toward Ohio.

I can't see Pivotal on the customer side here at work (Would have to jump on my work laptop) but based on that snow map, my assumption is that the UKIE is taking much longer to dampen out the northern shortwave as compared to the rest of the guidance?

[Trevor]

First call followed by my updated call...

I like the updated call. That looks really good to me Trev. Nice work!

Thanks! No significant changes were made. Main thing was to reduce amounts in the northeast and drop 4" from the range and go with 1-3" instead. At present I do not think 4" amounts will be common enough to have it in the range.

[Trevor]

Forgot to include the text portion of the update I posted to FB...

The Details...

-Precipitation will enter the area after midnight Friday night.
-The precipitation is expected to fall in the form of snow, and it might come down at a good clip from time to time.
-Temperatures near freezing and road temperatures above freezing should help to keep roads wet to slushy in spots at the worst; in other words, this will not be a storm that has a high impact on travel.
-Surface temperatures and temperatures aloft will be marginal for snow stickage on the ground and snowflake production aloft; it will be a wet snow.
-The snow may mix with rain at times; if this happens too frequently, amounts will be lessened; when precipitation rates are light, it is more probable that we switch over to light rain or drizzle.
-This is not a huge snowstorm...no need to invade your local grocery stores.
-Forecast confidence remains at a medium level, and some further changes to the forecast are possible if not likely.

[tron777]

First call followed by my updated call...

I like the updated call. That looks really good to me Trev. Nice work!

Thanks! No significant changes were made. Main thing was to reduce amounts in the northeast and drop 4" from the range and go with 1-3" instead. At present I do not think 4" amounts will be common enough to have it in the range.

I agree... the map matches what I posted earlier perfectly.

EDIT: Also glad you mentioned the rate of precip in the forecast discussion. Perfect!

[Trevor]

First call followed by my updated call...

I like the updated call. That looks really good to me Trev. Nice work!

Thanks! No significant changes were made. Main thing was to reduce amounts in the northeast and drop 4" from the range and go with 1-3" instead. At present I do not think 4" amounts will be common enough to have it in the range.

I agree... the map matches what I posted earlier perfectly.

Nice that we are in agreement! See it’s not too early!

[tron777]

First call followed by my updated call...

I like the updated call. That looks really good to me Trev. Nice work!

Thanks! No significant changes were made. Main thing was to reduce amounts in the northeast and drop 4" from the range and go with 1-3" instead. At present I do not think 4" amounts will be common enough to have it in the range.

I agree... the map matches what I posted earlier perfectly.

Nice that we are in agreement! See it’s not too early!

Nope. Not at all. I do miss the old days though. Back when QPF would increase as we got closer instead of decreased. Oh how I miss Feb of 2010.

[Trevor]

I like the updated call. That looks really good to me Trev. Nice work!

Thanks! No significant changes were made. Main thing was to reduce amounts in the northeast and drop 4" from the range and go with 1-3" instead. At present I do not think 4" amounts will be common enough to have it in the range.

I agree... the map matches what I posted earlier perfectly.

Nice that we are in agreement! See it’s not too early!

Nope. Not at all. I do miss the old days though. Back when QPF would increase as we got closer instead of decreased. Oh how I miss Feb of 2010.

That really was something else wasn't it??? Three warning-criteria events back to back to back.

[dce]

FWIW the UKMET still shows a little love. A trend that is showing up on the majority of the models is a little more snow in Indiana that dies out as it heads toward Ohio.

I can't see Pivotal on the customer side here at work (Would have to jump on my work laptop) but based on that snow map, my assumption is that the UKIE is taking much longer to dampen out the northern shortwave as compared to the rest of the guidance?

This is actually a better representation of this weekend. My first map of the UKMET went through Tuesday. This is through Sunday morning. My first map got a little snowfall from the next system in there.

[Trevor]

FWIW the UKMET still shows a little love. A trend that is showing up on the majority of the models is a little more snow in Indiana that dies out as it heads toward Ohio.

I can't see Pivotal on the customer side here at work (Would have to jump on my work laptop) but based on that snow map, my assumption is that the UKIE is taking much longer to dampen out the northern shortwave as compared to the rest of the guidance?

This is actually a better representation of this weekend. My first map of the UKMET went through Tuesday. This is through Sunday morning. My first map got a little snowfall from the next system in there.

Thanks for the correction! Again remember that the map is using 10:1 which we likely won't see; 7-8:1 probably.

[Trevor]

Dr. No will be coming in soon.

[tron777]

0.15" QPF at CVG from the Doctor.

[Trevor]

0.15" QPF at CVG from the Doctor.

Like the other models, the correction back to the north that I mentioned did in fact happen. 00z vs 12z.

[tron777]

I'd love to get that strong primary low solution back but that is the snow weenie in me talking. Realistically, I think your map from earlier Trev is going to work out nicely.

[Trevor]

I'd love to get that strong primary low solution back but that is the snow weenie in me talking. Realistically, I think your map from earlier Trev is going to work out nicely.

Yup! Of course we are in the window of time for changes so never say never, Les

[Trevor]

Graphic I put together for my page outlining the potential next week...

[tron777]

You should probably move that post to the La Bomba thread.

[Bgoney]

Been figuring about a .25”” qpf close to the river, with off and on snow showers of varying degrees , with temps hovering around 32-36 . Going with an inch or less for most areas cvg, Dayton, cbus

[tron777]

Been figuring about a .25”” qpf close to the river, with off and on snow showers of varying degrees , with temps hovering around 32-36 . Going with an inch or less for most areas cvg, Dayton, cbus

I could see something in the 1-2"range if the precip rate is heavy enough. That is going to be key to getting into that range. As soon as it lightens up, whatever we do see will start melting and we'll see light rain / drizzle. It's just going to be one of those sloppy / slushy snows.

[Trevor]

Been figuring about a .25”” qpf close to the river, with off and on snow showers of varying degrees , with temps hovering around 32-36 . Going with an inch or less for most areas cvg, Dayton, cbus

That would fit in the lower end of my range so I suppose we could call that some sort of agreement considering we rarely agree on anything it seems LOL

[Bgoney]

Been figuring about a .25”” qpf close to the river, with off and on snow showers of varying degrees , with temps hovering around 32-36 . Going with an inch or less for most areas cvg, Dayton, cbus

That would fit in the lower end of my range so I suppose we could call that some sort of agreement considering we rarely agree on anything it seems LOL

Sounds good to me , lol, I’ll agree with that!!!