Absolute Vorticity

dce wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:11 pm

dce wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:07 pm Today's European for the next ten days! This is at a 10:1 ratio! Yikes!

Back to back big storms. Lots of model tracking to come! Finally, we have something interesting to keep our interests this week and next.

Finally! I almost feel like an Internet troll for posting that, but what the heck! We're all snow starved. Everyone on this forum knows how to take these maps a week out.

For sure. All precip types are on the table for both of these storms. It's just good seeing models showing something for us to keep our eyes on.

New Years Climatology from the boys:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/cvg_newyears_climo

The European is back to showing an out and out split of the polar vortex. Just like Tim said yesterday, it may indeed switch back. Now we have to see if it holds. If today's run of the European is correct, the middle of January is going to get very cold around here.

dce wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:56 pm The European is back to showing an out and out split of the polar vortex. Just like Tim said yesterday, it may indeed switch back. Now we have to see if it holds. If today's run of the European is correct, the middle of January is going to get very cold around here.

I don't think it matters all that much now. The PV is weak and has been getting beaten up and continues to do so. That is going to be good enough to inject arctic air into the country.

18Z GFS is a big I-70 Hit for this coming weekend with rain and snow for the rest of us. That low weakens as it passes us by and transfers its energy slowly to an EC Low. Then for the next one around the 10th, is coming in further north so mainly a rain event for us. A long week of modeling watching ahead. We can't really worry about the 10th system too much yet, until we can pin down the upcoming weekend system first.

33 here / 32 CVG with some flurries flying this evening!

It's been snowing lightly for several hours here. A light covering on elevated surfaces.

snowbo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:27 pm It's been snowing lightly for several hours here. A light covering on elevated surfaces.

Nice Bo! Down to 32 now IMBY with a patch of snow showers to my NW. Hoping to see something decent before bed tonight lol

Surface low and 850mb low are just a tad too far north for Cincinnati. Like Les said, an I-70 crusher per the models today. Several days out so some changes are to be expected. I will have a "first call" map posted tomorrow. Not necessarily for amounts, but for placement of the different precip types.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:16 pm Surface low and 850mb low are just a tad too far north for Cincinnati. Like Les said, an I-70 crusher per the models today. Several days out so some changes are to be expected. I will have a "first call" map posted tomorrow. Not necessarily for amounts, but for placement of the different precip types.

Trev... your first call map could even still change i.e. precip type. We have a long ways to go my dude!

In non-weather news... I am going to win my Fantasy Football League for the first time! I have 147.06 points with no players remaining. My opponent has 82.40 points and 1 Green Bay WR left this evening! $180 coming my way after tonight's game. So if I can win at fantasy football surely we can get a snow storm right? The pattern is loaded in the extended range with cold air readily available. The next few weeks look interesting to to me. Hopefully, we can all cash in!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:22 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:16 pm Surface low and 850mb low are just a tad too far north for Cincinnati. Like Les said, an I-70 crusher per the models today. Several days out so some changes are to be expected. I will have a "first call" map posted tomorrow. Not necessarily for amounts, but for placement of the different precip types.

Trev... your first call map could even still change i.e. precip type. We have a long ways to go my dude!

Of course but that’s why it’s a first call. Those are usually not the final forecast anyways. More like a rough draft. I know most Mets (esp TV) wait until the day before but I don’t like doing that—I like to give my followers plenty of notice.

I also do believe that we will be able to lock this one in a bit sooner than usual. Forecast confidence should be higher come Wednesday or early Thursday.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:22 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:16 pm Surface low and 850mb low are just a tad too far north for Cincinnati. Like Les said, an I-70 crusher per the models today. Several days out so some changes are to be expected. I will have a "first call" map posted tomorrow. Not necessarily for amounts, but for placement of the different precip types.

Trev... your first call map could even still change i.e. precip type. We have a long ways to go my dude!

Of course but that’s why it’s a first call. Those are usually not the final forecast anyways. More like a rough draft. I know most Mets (esp TV) wait until the day before but I don’t like doing that—I like to give my followers plenty of notice.

I understand. I just thought it was a touch early for a first call map since it is Days 5/6. All good Bro. Was just offering up my 2 cents worth.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:45 pm I also do believe that we will be able to lock this one in a bit sooner than usual. Forecast confidence should be higher come Wednesday or early Thursday.

Wow... now you're getting ballsy. Of course, if it turns out to be a rainer for us then you can absolutely lock it in early. The warmer solutions always seem to stick.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:50 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:45 pm I also do believe that we will be able to lock this one in a bit sooner than usual. Forecast confidence should be higher come Wednesday or early Thursday.

Wow... now you're getting ballsy. Of course, if it turns out to be a rainer for us then you can absolutely lock it in early. The warmer solutions always seem to stick.

These stronger, larger storms are usually easier to nail down versus weaker lows and clippers. Key word being usually.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:50 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:45 pm I also do believe that we will be able to lock this one in a bit sooner than usual. Forecast confidence should be higher come Wednesday or early Thursday.

Wow... now you're getting ballsy. Of course, if it turns out to be a rainer for us then you can absolutely lock it in early. The warmer solutions always seem to stick.

These stronger, larger storms are usually easier to nail down versus weaker lows and clippers. Key word being usually.

We'll see as I always say on here. Longs ways to go still IMO. Just glad to see things changing instead of endless warmth and dry conditions. Above avg precip is in our future along with cold air. Hopefully the two will line up correctly. I may explore some analogs tomorrow too see how past set up's performed.

It’s way out there, but this has the makings of a nasty overrunning event. If you recall, I had a major ice storm threat for January in my winter outlook. Plenty of time to watch that one.

Man this pattern coming up may be one we remember for a while. It’s honestly crazy how many winter storm threats are down the pipeline.

00z GFS running now.

00z GFS. Brings in more of an ice threat for Cincinnati.

HAPPY 2024 AV COMMUNITY FAMILY!!

Currently 30 here in G'ville and progged to hold steady between 30-29 into New Year's Day morning.

Euro is way south. I’m on more of a southern camp myself but I think that’s a bit too far south.

The lead system coming in ahead of this storm has a nice pocket of cold air with it so I think we have to keep an eye out on a southward shift. I think the GFS is too far north. It’s early but I’m currently favoring an area from around Dayton to Lexington as a threat zone.

Canadian is a compromise between the GFS and the Euro.

Noticeable shift south in the 06z GFS. Might wanna save that weenie map there, Les, as I suspect the southward trend is not finished yet.

Looks like a similar setup to a couple of storm tracks in December. The STJ pushing the vort eastward , then the -NAO brings it up the coast. Favoring this atm. Always a concern of how much moisture can make it westward over the Apps in this scenario

Good morning all and Happy New Year to you all!

The Ensemble guidance has been south of the operational models from the beginning on this event so it is not really surprising to see the OP's correct back to the south. Hopefully not too far south as in a swing and a miss. Also, this storm looks to be a Miller B. The primary low pushes into the OV then weakens and forms a new low for the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. We can sometimes score with a slower transfer but if it's a quick transfer, then we get screwed out of the deeper moisture. One to watch for sure.