Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 4:41 am Tim / Bgoney... I understand where you both are coming in and you are both right. We need the -EPO back to promote cross polar flow to get the cold from Siberia into Canada and then eventually down into the Lower 48. We don't need brutal cold, just air cold enough for snow. I think that is possible the second half of Dec with the brutally cold air holding off until January.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 7:27 am Good Morning and some wonderful posts and different ideas on how the current pattern is and what happens in the future. The old saying we can agree to disagree but in a very polite way is always the way to go imo. Bgoney mentioned that Siberia is going to get cold and that is true because the AO has been very negative but is forecast to head towards neutral.. We have seen in some years that the Siberia cold spell can last a long time and we end up with several weeks of milder than normal temps. We are mild at the moment and expect that to continue for another 2-3 weeks though you can always get a quick shot of colder air behind a system its not a pattern change to cold weather

The MJO and more and more this looks to travel through all the warmer phases and though weak it makes a difference. Les mentioned a SSW possible sometime later this month and since models are starting to show a colder polar region like Bgoney mentioned then getting a SSW is important.

So many things to cover and models are wonderful though tricky at times but also having what is happening on this lovely planet needs to be part of the equation and many times the models are just not good at that part. Again that of course is humans feeding in the information

So the MJO is really starting to make sense has it heads through the warm phases and latest show it in phase 7 about mid-month. If this continues to move on it should reach phase 8 by the 20th or so and the forecast of a colder late December looks good. However if the MJO just falls apart and heads in the COD over the next few weeks then we may need to revisit when and how cold we get for late in the month.

So to end this post I believe most on here are sticking with their forecast and should because imo folks on here to a great job and we all come here to enjoy the weather and try to figure out the future but we all do it in different way and that makes this forum better than most.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 4:44 am Meanwhile, a wet morning in progress as we expected.

Early totals:

CVG - 0.05"
Me - 0.07"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.09"

The heaviest of the rain is moving thru now and will taper off late morning / midday. NW of Cincy appears to have the best chance at getting to the half inch mark. South of Cincy 0.25" or less.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 6:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 4:41 am Tim / Bgoney... I understand where you both are coming in and you are both right. We need the -EPO back to promote cross polar flow to get the cold from Siberia into Canada and then eventually down into the Lower 48. We don't need brutal cold, just air cold enough for snow. I think that is possible the second half of Dec with the brutally cold air holding off until January.

That’s a big ole 10-4 Les, mentioned that last week that’s what I need to see to get the polar express to leave the station. We’ ve been getting spikes in the PNA only to get crushed by the next trough because there is no support from the EPO regime. Usually when we get a -NAO we see a slower progression at 500 mb but I haven’t seen that at all with ridges and troughs moving about without getting a chance to amplify for either one.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 8:14 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 7:27 am Good Morning and some wonderful posts and different ideas on how the current pattern is and what happens in the future. The old saying we can agree to disagree but in a very polite way is always the way to go imo. Bgoney mentioned that Siberia is going to get cold and that is true because the AO has been very negative but is forecast to head towards neutral.. We have seen in some years that the Siberia cold spell can last a long time and we end up with several weeks of milder than normal temps. We are mild at the moment and expect that to continue for another 2-3 weeks though you can always get a quick shot of colder air behind a system its not a pattern change to cold weather

The MJO and more and more this looks to travel through all the warmer phases and though weak it makes a difference. Les mentioned a SSW possible sometime later this month and since models are starting to show a colder polar region like Bgoney mentioned then getting a SSW is important.

So many things to cover and models are wonderful though tricky at times but also having what is happening on this lovely planet needs to be part of the equation and many times the models are just not good at that part. Again that of course is humans feeding in the information

So the MJO is really starting to make sense has it heads through the warm phases and latest show it in phase 7 about mid-month. If this continues to move on it should reach phase 8 by the 20th or so and the forecast of a colder late December looks good. However if the MJO just falls apart and heads in the COD over the next few weeks then we may need to revisit when and how cold we get for late in the month.

So to end this post I believe most on here are sticking with their forecast and should because imo folks on here to a great job and we all come here to enjoy the weather and try to figure out the future but we all do it in different way and that makes this forum better than most.

You sum it up nicely Tim, only thing I’d like to add , is looking at week 3 (15-21) I’m more confident to extend the near to above normal temp regime to continue due to everything mentioned. Not liking what I’m seeing this morning with the MJO at all . As far as the PV , weakened yes , but not seeing enough damage for a SSW in Dec

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 9:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 4:44 am Meanwhile, a wet morning in progress as we expected.

Early totals:

CVG - 0.05"
Me - 0.07"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.09"

The heaviest of the rain is moving thru now and will taper off late morning / midday. NW of Cincy appears to have the best chance at getting to the half inch mark. South of Cincy 0.25" or less.

Les, did we have a bunch of wind come through over night when the rain moved in? I have a lot of debris laying around my yard this morning!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 11:02 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 8:14 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 7:27 am Good Morning and some wonderful posts and different ideas on how the current pattern is and what happens in the future. The old saying we can agree to disagree but in a very polite way is always the way to go imo. Bgoney mentioned that Siberia is going to get cold and that is true because the AO has been very negative but is forecast to head towards neutral.. We have seen in some years that the Siberia cold spell can last a long time and we end up with several weeks of milder than normal temps. We are mild at the moment and expect that to continue for another 2-3 weeks though you can always get a quick shot of colder air behind a system its not a pattern change to cold weather

The MJO and more and more this looks to travel through all the warmer phases and though weak it makes a difference. Les mentioned a SSW possible sometime later this month and since models are starting to show a colder polar region like Bgoney mentioned then getting a SSW is important.

So many things to cover and models are wonderful though tricky at times but also having what is happening on this lovely planet needs to be part of the equation and many times the models are just not good at that part. Again that of course is humans feeding in the information

So the MJO is really starting to make sense has it heads through the warm phases and latest show it in phase 7 about mid-month. If this continues to move on it should reach phase 8 by the 20th or so and the forecast of a colder late December looks good. However if the MJO just falls apart and heads in the COD over the next few weeks then we may need to revisit when and how cold we get for late in the month.

So to end this post I believe most on here are sticking with their forecast and should because imo folks on here to a great job and we all come here to enjoy the weather and try to figure out the future but we all do it in different way and that makes this forum better than most.

You sum it up nicely Tim, only thing I’d like to add , is looking at week 3 (15-21) I’m more confident to extend the near to above normal temp regime to continue due to everything mentioned. Not liking what I’m seeing this morning with the MJO at all . As far as the PV , weakened yes , but not seeing enough damage for a SSW in Dec

Agreed about the MJO. It was supposed to go into the COD and bypass the warm phases originally. That no longer looks to be the case. I have a target date of Dec 18th, but I hope that is not too soon. Could be more like Christmas or something.

dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2023 2:07 pm We could go back to last year's December thread. The year before. Year before that. And..... We probably can find pretty much the exact same statements on or around December 1st. "Could be more like Christmas or something"

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2023 8:51 am The good news guys are that most of the models are getting us back into Phase 7 by mid December so hopefully by Christmas time we will be in those more favorable colder phases 8, 1, 2 etc. Ensembles continue to look good for late December into January once the MJO is done taking its tour thru the warm phases which is occurring now thru the first half of the month. Currently, the MJO is in Phase 4 as of 11/30.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2023 9:09 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2023 8:51 am The good news guys are that most of the models are getting us back into Phase 7 by mid December so hopefully by Christmas time we will be in those more favorable colder phases 8, 1, 2 etc. Ensembles continue to look good for late December into January once the MJO is done taking its tour thru the warm phases which is occurring now thru the first half of the month. Currently, the MJO is in Phase 4 as of 11/30.

Good Morning Les and that is the main reason I see hope later this month. I have after the 20th or so when we get in a better pattern for winter weather. Again just because it lands in phase 8 does not mean a change at that exact moment. The good thing though is the mjo is rather weak and again if the mjo was stronger in phase 3-7 then we would no doubt see much warmer weather. The arctic regions are getting cold quick after a later start in many areas and yes we need that cold to build up if we are going to see a colder brand of air later this month.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2023 8:44 am Good morning all! I am also in agreement with the rest of you. Snoozeville basically until the Dec 10-13th time period as Trev mentioned. Definitely believe it will be a cutter. This far out, the t-storm risk is there but we cannot say anymore then that. Hopefully, we'll see a strong low to pull down some cold air behind it instead of these wimpy low pressure systems that basically are doing nothing to change the air mass.