December 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Tomorrow should be dry with showers likely again on Sunday. Amounts still look to be light, heaviest SE of Cincinnati. The two clippers for early next week still do not look to be very impactful. The more significant system that Trev and I have been talking about Dec 10-13th time period is still on the table. GFS should largely be ignored as it's all over the place with this system. CMC and Euro IMO continue to show the cutter solution which we are on board with. Rain ending as snow showers, one of those deals.

[Bgoney]

Tim / Bgoney... I understand where you both are coming in and you are both right. We need the -EPO back to promote cross polar flow to get the cold from Siberia into Canada and then eventually down into the Lower 48. We don't need brutal cold, just air cold enough for snow. I think that is possible the second half of Dec with the brutally cold air holding off until January.

That’s a big ole 10-4 Les, mentioned that last week that’s what I need to see to get the polar express to leave the station. We’ ve been getting spikes in the PNA only to get crushed by the next trough because there is no support from the EPO regime. Usually when we get a -NAO we see a slower progression at 500 mb but I haven’t seen that at all with ridges and troughs moving about without getting a chance to amplify for either one.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and some wonderful posts and different ideas on how the current pattern is and what happens in the future. The old saying we can agree to disagree but in a very polite way is always the way to go imo. Bgoney mentioned that Siberia is going to get cold and that is true because the AO has been very negative but is forecast to head towards neutral.. We have seen in some years that the Siberia cold spell can last a long time and we end up with several weeks of milder than normal temps. We are mild at the moment and expect that to continue for another 2-3 weeks though you can always get a quick shot of colder air behind a system its not a pattern change to cold weather

The MJO and more and more this looks to travel through all the warmer phases and though weak it makes a difference. Les mentioned a SSW possible sometime later this month and since models are starting to show a colder polar region like Bgoney mentioned then getting a SSW is important.

So many things to cover and models are wonderful though tricky at times but also having what is happening on this lovely planet needs to be part of the equation and many times the models are just not good at that part. Again that of course is humans feeding in the information

So the MJO is really starting to make sense has it heads through the warm phases and latest show it in phase 7 about mid-month. If this continues to move on it should reach phase 8 by the 20th or so and the forecast of a colder late December looks good. However if the MJO just falls apart and heads in the COD over the next few weeks then we may need to revisit when and how cold we get for late in the month.

So to end this post I believe most on here are sticking with their forecast and should because imo folks on here to a great job and we all come here to enjoy the weather and try to figure out the future but we all do it in different way and that makes this forum better than most.

[Bgoney]

Good Morning and some wonderful posts and different ideas on how the current pattern is and what happens in the future. The old saying we can agree to disagree but in a very polite way is always the way to go imo. Bgoney mentioned that Siberia is going to get cold and that is true because the AO has been very negative but is forecast to head towards neutral.. We have seen in some years that the Siberia cold spell can last a long time and we end up with several weeks of milder than normal temps. We are mild at the moment and expect that to continue for another 2-3 weeks though you can always get a quick shot of colder air behind a system its not a pattern change to cold weather

The MJO and more and more this looks to travel through all the warmer phases and though weak it makes a difference. Les mentioned a SSW possible sometime later this month and since models are starting to show a colder polar region like Bgoney mentioned then getting a SSW is important.

So many things to cover and models are wonderful though tricky at times but also having what is happening on this lovely planet needs to be part of the equation and many times the models are just not good at that part. Again that of course is humans feeding in the information

So the MJO is really starting to make sense has it heads through the warm phases and latest show it in phase 7 about mid-month. If this continues to move on it should reach phase 8 by the 20th or so and the forecast of a colder late December looks good. However if the MJO just falls apart and heads in the COD over the next few weeks then we may need to revisit when and how cold we get for late in the month.

So to end this post I believe most on here are sticking with their forecast and should because imo folks on here to a great job and we all come here to enjoy the weather and try to figure out the future but we all do it in different way and that makes this forum better than most.

You sum it up nicely Tim, only thing I’d like to add , is looking at week 3 (15-21) I’m more confident to extend the near to above normal temp regime to continue due to everything mentioned. Not liking what I’m seeing this morning with the MJO at all . As far as the PV , weakened yes , but not seeing enough damage for a SSW in Dec

[winterstormjoe]

Meanwhile, a wet morning in progress as we expected.

Early totals:

CVG - 0.05"
Me - 0.07"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.09"

The heaviest of the rain is moving thru now and will taper off late morning / midday. NW of Cincy appears to have the best chance at getting to the half inch mark. South of Cincy 0.25" or less.

Les, did we have a bunch of wind come through over night when the rain moved in? I have a lot of debris laying around my yard this morning!

[tron777]

Tim / Bgoney... I understand where you both are coming in and you are both right. We need the -EPO back to promote cross polar flow to get the cold from Siberia into Canada and then eventually down into the Lower 48. We don't need brutal cold, just air cold enough for snow. I think that is possible the second half of Dec with the brutally cold air holding off until January.

That’s a big ole 10-4 Les, mentioned that last week that’s what I need to see to get the polar express to leave the station. We’ ve been getting spikes in the PNA only to get crushed by the next trough because there is no support from the EPO regime. Usually when we get a -NAO we see a slower progression at 500 mb but I haven’t seen that at all with ridges and troughs moving about without getting a chance to amplify for either one.

The Pacific Jet definitely needs to slow down for sure. Hope to see that happen the deeper we get into the winter season. Modeling shows that happening but it's a long ways off mind you.

[tron777]

Good Morning and some wonderful posts and different ideas on how the current pattern is and what happens in the future. The old saying we can agree to disagree but in a very polite way is always the way to go imo. Bgoney mentioned that Siberia is going to get cold and that is true because the AO has been very negative but is forecast to head towards neutral.. We have seen in some years that the Siberia cold spell can last a long time and we end up with several weeks of milder than normal temps. We are mild at the moment and expect that to continue for another 2-3 weeks though you can always get a quick shot of colder air behind a system its not a pattern change to cold weather

The MJO and more and more this looks to travel through all the warmer phases and though weak it makes a difference. Les mentioned a SSW possible sometime later this month and since models are starting to show a colder polar region like Bgoney mentioned then getting a SSW is important.

So many things to cover and models are wonderful though tricky at times but also having what is happening on this lovely planet needs to be part of the equation and many times the models are just not good at that part. Again that of course is humans feeding in the information

So the MJO is really starting to make sense has it heads through the warm phases and latest show it in phase 7 about mid-month. If this continues to move on it should reach phase 8 by the 20th or so and the forecast of a colder late December looks good. However if the MJO just falls apart and heads in the COD over the next few weeks then we may need to revisit when and how cold we get for late in the month.

So to end this post I believe most on here are sticking with their forecast and should because imo folks on here to a great job and we all come here to enjoy the weather and try to figure out the future but we all do it in different way and that makes this forum better than most.

You sum it up nicely Tim, only thing I’d like to add , is looking at week 3 (15-21) I’m more confident to extend the near to above normal temp regime to continue due to everything mentioned. Not liking what I’m seeing this morning with the MJO at all . As far as the PV , weakened yes , but not seeing enough damage for a SSW in Dec

Agreed about the MJO. It was supposed to go into the COD and bypass the warm phases originally. That no longer looks to be the case. I have a target date of Dec 18th, but I hope that is not too soon. Could be more like Christmas or something.

[tron777]

Meanwhile, a wet morning in progress as we expected.

Early totals:

CVG - 0.05"
Me - 0.07"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.09"

The heaviest of the rain is moving thru now and will taper off late morning / midday. NW of Cincy appears to have the best chance at getting to the half inch mark. South of Cincy 0.25" or less.

Les, did we have a bunch of wind come through over night when the rain moved in? I have a lot of debris laying around my yard this morning!

CVG gusted to 22 mph out of the south at 4am. 25 mph at 8am this morning, so nothing too awful using CVG anyway.

[dce]

Good Morning and some wonderful posts and different ideas on how the current pattern is and what happens in the future. The old saying we can agree to disagree but in a very polite way is always the way to go imo. Bgoney mentioned that Siberia is going to get cold and that is true because the AO has been very negative but is forecast to head towards neutral.. We have seen in some years that the Siberia cold spell can last a long time and we end up with several weeks of milder than normal temps. We are mild at the moment and expect that to continue for another 2-3 weeks though you can always get a quick shot of colder air behind a system its not a pattern change to cold weather

The MJO and more and more this looks to travel through all the warmer phases and though weak it makes a difference. Les mentioned a SSW possible sometime later this month and since models are starting to show a colder polar region like Bgoney mentioned then getting a SSW is important.

So many things to cover and models are wonderful though tricky at times but also having what is happening on this lovely planet needs to be part of the equation and many times the models are just not good at that part. Again that of course is humans feeding in the information

So the MJO is really starting to make sense has it heads through the warm phases and latest show it in phase 7 about mid-month. If this continues to move on it should reach phase 8 by the 20th or so and the forecast of a colder late December looks good. However if the MJO just falls apart and heads in the COD over the next few weeks then we may need to revisit when and how cold we get for late in the month.

So to end this post I believe most on here are sticking with their forecast and should because imo folks on here to a great job and we all come here to enjoy the weather and try to figure out the future but we all do it in different way and that makes this forum better than most.

You sum it up nicely Tim, only thing I’d like to add , is looking at week 3 (15-21) I’m more confident to extend the near to above normal temp regime to continue due to everything mentioned. Not liking what I’m seeing this morning with the MJO at all . As far as the PV , weakened yes , but not seeing enough damage for a SSW in Dec

Agreed about the MJO. It was supposed to go into the COD and bypass the warm phases originally. That no longer looks to be the case. I have a target date of Dec 18th, but I hope that is not too soon. Could be more like Christmas or something.

We could go back to last year's December thread. The year before. Year before that. And..... We probably can find pretty much the exact same statements on or around December 1st. "Could be more like Christmas or something"

[tpweather]

Give a thumbs up to Bgoney and his call on the rainfall. He was much lower and I adjusted because he saw this play out before and that pattern continues. I tend to sort of ignore drought conditions in the non-growing season and that is probably a mistake. Doug I love your post about Christmas and you are correct we have seen that many times in the past and again the good thing this year nobody on this forum was biting the early return of cold like the gfs has been showing and the conditions are no doubt much different this season

[tron777]

We could go back to last year's December thread. The year before. Year before that. And..... We probably can find pretty much the exact same statements on or around December 1st. "Could be more like Christmas or something"

True that. Sorry Doug... I wish I had better news. I think better news is coming, I really do. I need to be more patient. We all probably do lol

[tron777]

4pm rainfall totals:

CVG - 0.28"
Me - 0.26"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.25"

[tron777]

I'm probably the only person grilling right now lol. I'm the type of person who will grill steaks during a snow storm!!!

[Trevor]

This is in fantasy land, but the signal is there for a potential huge torch right before the holidays. Something I will be watching. Could be a setup that leads to the development of a major storm system before Xmas.

Large amount of real-estate under a SW flow.

[Trevor]

00z Euro continues to show my cutter for the 10-13th timeframe. A large scale severe weather outbreak is a possibility I am watching.

[Bgoney]

We’ll have to wait for that week two cutter to track anything significant , week one features more weak flow/systems for the mid section of the country

IMG_0931.jpeg

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the status quo will continue. I agree nothing major in the next week concerning precip events or anything out of the ordinary on temps. Will probably average slightly above normal next week. Finally the cold is getting into Siberia and looks to have some staying power. Cold also starting to ease in Alaska though more of a normal type of cold for them and northern Canada will continue to stay cold but near the average as well.

Normally when you see a pattern change a larger storm will usher in the new pattern. Trev showed a few possible ones and again the timing is something we need to watch.

[tron777]

Good morning all! I am also in agreement with the rest of you. Snoozeville basically until the Dec 10-13th time period as Trev mentioned. Definitely believe it will be a cutter. This far out, the t-storm risk is there but we cannot say anymore then that. Hopefully, we'll see a strong low to pull down some cold air behind it instead of these wimpy low pressure systems that basically are doing nothing to change the air mass.

[tpweather]

Munich,Germany got 1.6 feet of snow in the past 24 hours. This again shows the cold is still in eastern Europe and how we are getting those spokes of arctic air in a few places. Is this a storm over there that is bringing a pattern change to milder as it has been rather cold and winter like over there for a period of time. Will watch this to see if that happens over the next 10 day or so.

[tron777]

The good news guys are that most of the models are getting us back into Phase 7 by mid December so hopefully by Christmas time we will be in those more favorable colder phases 8, 1, 2 etc. Ensembles continue to look good for late December into January once the MJO is done taking its tour thru the warm phases which is occurring now thru the first half of the month. Currently, the MJO is in Phase 4 as of 11/30.

[tpweather]

The good news guys are that most of the models are getting us back into Phase 7 by mid December so hopefully by Christmas time we will be in those more favorable colder phases 8, 1, 2 etc. Ensembles continue to look good for late December into January once the MJO is done taking its tour thru the warm phases which is occurring now thru the first half of the month. Currently, the MJO is in Phase 4 as of 11/30.

Good Morning Les and that is the main reason I see hope later this month. I have after the 20th or so when we get in a better pattern for winter weather. Again just because it lands in phase 8 does not mean a change at that exact moment. The good thing though is the mjo is rather weak and again if the mjo was stronger in phase 3-7 then we would no doubt see much warmer weather. The arctic regions are getting cold quick after a later start in many areas and yes we need that cold to build up if we are going to see a colder brand of air later this month.

[tron777]

The good news guys are that most of the models are getting us back into Phase 7 by mid December so hopefully by Christmas time we will be in those more favorable colder phases 8, 1, 2 etc. Ensembles continue to look good for late December into January once the MJO is done taking its tour thru the warm phases which is occurring now thru the first half of the month. Currently, the MJO is in Phase 4 as of 11/30.

Good Morning Les and that is the main reason I see hope later this month. I have after the 20th or so when we get in a better pattern for winter weather. Again just because it lands in phase 8 does not mean a change at that exact moment. The good thing though is the mjo is rather weak and again if the mjo was stronger in phase 3-7 then we would no doubt see much warmer weather. The arctic regions are getting cold quick after a later start in many areas and yes we need that cold to build up if we are going to see a colder brand of air later this month.

There is usually a 7 day lag give or take, so after the 20th makes since at this point in time. Still seeing the PV weakening late Dec and into January as well. The AO looks to remain on the negative side for most of December which won't hurt things a bit. Just hope that the Pacific jet slows down for the blocking to develop later on down the road.

[Trevor]

Good morning all! I am also in agreement with the rest of you. Snoozeville basically until the Dec 10-13th time period as Trev mentioned. Definitely believe it will be a cutter. This far out, the t-storm risk is there but we cannot say anymore then that. Hopefully, we'll see a strong low to pull down some cold air behind it instead of these wimpy low pressure systems that basically are doing nothing to change the air mass.

Pretty much! Yeah will add thunderstorms to the forecast when it reaches my seven day range. Definitely like the prospects for a severe weather outbreak in Dixie Alley. Up this way not so much but that can of course change.

Unless something changes that could be a big severe weather day for them.

[tron777]

I agree Trev. So much has to go right this far north during the colder months, but severe wx season for the Dixie States, the winter time is usually prime on into the early spring.

[tron777]

12Z GFS today is offering up an interesting scenario and honestly, it is not far fetched either. Meteorologically, it makes sense and could happen. The Dec 10th system is a deepening low that moves thru the OV and it delivers in a nice batch of cold air. Then we get a follow up wave in the STJ that brings up moisture from the Gulf for a light snow chance on the 13th. Timing is everything. You need a strong low to drag down the cold air, then get a follow up wave to pass thru while the cold air is in place before we warm up again.