Absolute Vorticity

56 as of 12pm at CVG with a delightful afternoon in progress. We have lots of good weather ahead to get things done outside in preparation for the upcoming winter season. Please take advantage! Today's 12Z GFS can be summed up rather easily. Zzzzzzzzzz

Total QPF for CVG per the 12Z Euro for the next 10 days is only 0.16" Boooorrrriinnnggggg

CVG reached 62, DAY 61 and CMH 60 today.

64 IMBY today. 70+ tomorrow upcoming after a coolish start in the 40s.

Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 39 early Mon morning.

Good morning all! 40 to 45 out there this morning after a nice Bengals win! 70 or so for this afternoon. A bit cooler tomorrow in the 60s on Election Day with a small shower chance. Most will stay dry. Wed we are back in the low to mid 70s ahead of our frontal system due in towards the end of the week. Small rain chances again Wed night thru Friday. Total rainfall for this week looks to be in that 0.10 to 0.20" range if you get very lucky (on the higher end). Temps drop back into the low 50s this weekend but it looks to be dry for any Veteran's Day plans on Sat. Then, we are dry and warm up for next week once again.

00z GFS came in further north with the Thu night/Fri rains. Something to watch. Still going to hold with low POPs for now.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:37 am 00z GFS came in further north with the Thu night/Fri rains. Something to watch. Still going to hold with low POPs for now.

Good morning Trev! Hope to see you on here more often, Bro! I agree... keeping POPS on the down low as well. 6Z GFS shifted back south a tad. 0Z Euro is still way south as it has been.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:26 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:37 am 00z GFS came in further north with the Thu night/Fri rains. Something to watch. Still going to hold with low POPs for now.

Good morning Trev! Hope to see you on here more often, Bro! I agree... keeping POPS on the down low as well. 6Z GFS shifted back south a tad. 0Z Euro is still way south as it has been.

Good Morning Les and Trev. Trev had a wonderful post and one we may use quite often this winter. I expect many systems to keep the moisture south and east of us quite often this winter. That does not mean we won't get our share of storms but as we know during an El Nino the south below I-40 is normally where the heaviest precip will fall. This upcoming system later this week is a great example and we know once we get until a winter pattern these pattern can be hard to move.

Good morning Tim! I remember the good ole days when you could rely on the NW Trend. For the last several years, it's been a SE trend. We'll have to wait and see how models react to certain systems in certain weather patterns to see what trend ends up being more dominate this season.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:51 am Good morning Tim! I remember the good ole days when you could rely on the NW Trend. For the last several years, it's been a SE trend. We'll have to wait and see how models react to certain systems in certain weather patterns to see what trend ends up being more dominate this season.

Hey Les and you are correct. Going to watch the mjo over the next week and see if a shift to the ugly phases 4-6 may come in play. At the moment we are in the COD and just came out of a weak phase 1. I watch this carefully and sometimes models pick up late on these movement. Hopefully the mjo remains in the phase 7-2 most of the winter and not 3-6.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:56 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:51 am Good morning Tim! I remember the good ole days when you could rely on the NW Trend. For the last several years, it's been a SE trend. We'll have to wait and see how models react to certain systems in certain weather patterns to see what trend ends up being more dominate this season.

Hey Les and you are correct. Going to watch the mjo over the next week and see if a shift to the ugly phases 4-6 may come in play. At the moment we are in the COD and just came out of a weak phase 1. I watch this carefully and sometimes models pick up late on these movement. Hopefully the mjo remains in the phase 7-2 most of the winter and not 3-6.

I'm not confident on what the MJO will do this winter. For now it remains on the weak side so it's not really doing much, if anything to the current weather pattern. Some Pro Mets online have indicated that they believe the MJO could start phase 6, then work its way into phases, 7, 8, 1 then COD then back out to 6 again. Etc Etc. This early, it's anybody's guess. The idea is based on the tropical forcing with this Nino being West of the Date line.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:26 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:37 am 00z GFS came in further north with the Thu night/Fri rains. Something to watch. Still going to hold with low POPs for now.

Good morning Trev! Hope to see you on here more often, Bro! I agree... keeping POPS on the down low as well. 6Z GFS shifted back south a tad. 0Z Euro is still way south as it has been.

Good Morning Les and Trev. Trev had a wonderful post and one we may use quite often this winter. I expect many systems to keep the moisture south and east of us quite often this winter. That does not mean we won't get our share of storms but as we know during an El Nino the south below I-40 is normally where the heaviest precip will fall. This upcoming system later this week is a great example and we know once we get until a winter pattern these pattern can be hard to move.

Agreed with both of you! South is the way to go unless we see more model support. I have some thoughts on the upcoming winter that I will share soon.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 10:01 am Agreed with both of you! South is the way to go unless we see more model support. I have some thoughts on the upcoming winter that I will share soon.

Looking forward to hearing those thoughts, Trev!

The NAM doesn't quite go out far enough yet for Fri but the 12Z GFS is way south again and is in good agreement with the past Euro runs I have seen. 12Z CMC is also in agreement. Therefore, keeping POPS low in my opinion is the correct call at this time.

In the short term, winds are picking up with gusts to 30 mph at times likely this afternoon out of the south. This will pump the warmer air in here on strong southerly flow. Lows tonight won't be as cool as they have been with the 50s likely in most areas.

64 as of this post at CVG. Per visible satellite, we should remain mostly sunny for the next several hours and with the strong S wind, hitting 70 shouldn't be a problem esp. with such a dry airmass in place.

12Z Euro is south (and has been) so unless we see some changes in the next couple of days... the best chance for rain is Thursday when the front comes thru with falling temps on Friday behind the front. That secondary low and slug of moisture looks to be a Central KY / TN Valley ordeal at the present time.

71 with a dew of 31 as of the 2pm reading at CVG so the forecast worked out nicely for once. Breezy too as expected with winds continuing to gust 25 to 30 mph sustained at 10-20 mph. The wind is bringing down those oak leaves IMBY. Yes please... keep on blowing!

72 per the 5pm climate report at CVG, 73 here.

The Euro weeklies don’t show much in the way of cold through mid December.

Long range GFS goes out to Dec 10th and shows a similar story, main difference being that it’s warmer than the Euro.

Hopefully the EU ensembles are sniffing out a return to meaningful rains around or just after mid month. With a return to troughing on the west coast next week maybe something can develop east of the Rockies for the OH/Tenn valleys

Trev.... it wouldn't shock me. Decembers are usually warm in an El Nino anyway. I've been calling for a mild December in our winter thoughts thread for a while. I am not happy about it of course.

Bgoney... The GFS is also showing a decent storm system around the 18th and another at the end of the run coming out of the Western US trough. This should be the change to wetter we both have been talking about after mid November.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 6:37 pm Trev.... it wouldn't shock me. Decembers are usually warm in an El Nino anyway. I've been calling for a mild December in our winter thoughts thread for a while. I am not happy about it of course.

Bgoney... The GFS is also showing a decent storm system around the 18th and another at the end of the run coming out of the Western US trough. This should be the change to wetter we both have been talking about after mid November.

Euro ensembles do show more in the way of precipitation in the long range. Heaviest south of us but that is also typical of an El Niño.

Edit: images posted out of order. First image is through Dec 21, second image is through Nov 21.