Absolute Vorticity

Lee still most likely NS bound or out to sea .

Lee has winds of 120 moving NW at 7. Margot has winds of 65 moving N at 8. The lead wave off of Africa does not look to develop but the one coming off of the Coast has a 60% chance in the next 5 days.

11am update, not much change , still a more likely NS landfall

As of 5pm, Lee is down to 115 and Margot is now a hurricane.

As of 5am.... Lee was at 115, Margot at 85, and our new wave off of Africa has a 70% chance to develop in the next 5 days.

11am update. Steady as she goes

Invest 97L which looks to become the N storm, Nigel, looks to potentially also be a recurving storm especially if it gets timed just right with another incoming trough around 9/20.

5pm cone update. No changes from earlier

5am update has what’s left of Lee to landfall on the Maine/NB border. It will not be a hurricane landfall

As of 11am, Lee is at 115, Margot is at 90, and the new tropical wave now has an 80% chance of development over the next 5 days.

As of 5pm, Lee is down to 105 mph, Margot is at 90 mph and we are waiting on the new tropical wave to become a TD about any time now.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:46 am 5am update has what’s left of Lee to landfall on the Maine/NB border. It will not be a hurricane landfall.

Just over 25 years ago, we very seriously looked at moving to Machias, ME. Looked at property and wife took the test to get a Maine pharmacist license. This was in January. She had a job offer and we loved it there. New information about the job made us rethink the move. Machias is on the coast just a few miles from Canada.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:23 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:46 am 5am update has what’s left of Lee to landfall on the Maine/NB border. It will not be a hurricane landfall.

Just over 25 years ago, we very seriously looked at moving to Machias, ME. Looked at property and wife took the test to get a Maine pharmacist license. This was in January. She had a job offer and we loved it there. New information about the job made us rethink the move. Machias is on the coast just a few miles from Canada.

Oh wow! Think about how may Nor 'Easters you would have endured as well as a couple of tropical systems too. I love the snow part of Nor 'Easters in the winter but the winds that you can get from them, no thanks!

It was so cold one morning, the antifreeze in the radiator slushed up. Our son, 3 years old at the time, had a blast running through the snow that was couple feet deep on the lots we looked at.

Lee is at 100 mph this morning Margot is weakened down to 75 and the new tropical wave still will become a TD about anytime now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:30 pm

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:23 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:46 am 5am update has what’s left of Lee to landfall on the Maine/NB border. It will not be a hurricane landfall.

Just over 25 years ago, we very seriously looked at moving to Machias, ME. Looked at property and wife took the test to get a Maine pharmacist license. This was in January. She had a job offer and we loved it there. New information about the job made us rethink the move. Machias is on the coast just a few miles from Canada.

Oh wow! Think about how may Nor 'Easters you would have endured as well as a couple of tropical systems too. I love the snow part of Nor 'Easters in the winter but the winds that you can get from them, no thanks!

Hi Linn,

And speaking of Maine, the Bush family had or still may have a vacation house in Kennebunkport.

When I was a year old my folks, myself, and unborn sister moved from east-central Indiana to Rhode Island in 1964 and lived there until sometime in 1965 when my folks got homesick for the Ohio Valley and we moved to Cincy. My sister was born in Providence, RI. In the early 1970s we had a summer vacation back to Little Rhody to visit with friends and did things like a boat ride to a lighthouse at Gaspee Point near Warwick and also took a ferry ride from an area called Galilee to Block Island and saw another lighthouse at Point Judith on BI.

In 1964 I started developing a New England accent lol. I'll always remember that scene from the first "Jaws" movie where Martin and Ellen Brody were talking to their sons Michael and Sean who were at their pier. Martin and Ellen were talking about accent dialects because they were from NYC and how the deeper accents from Amity Island in CT. Like pock the caw in New England and may I take your quall in NYC!

Anyway back to tropical talk!

The cone has suffered serious shrinkage the last few days . A NS landfall of what’s left of Lee is almost a lock at this point, which has been the most likely spot from the NHC boys for at least a week. All the hype from the usual suspects for naught once again

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:29 pm The cone has suffered serious shrinkage the last few days . A NS landfall of what’s left of Lee is almost a lock at this point, which has been the most likely spot from the NHC boys for at least a week. All the hype from the usual suspects for naught once again

Due to this system becoming extra tropical, the wind field and overall size of the storm will be expanding as Lee heads northbound. The coastal regions from Cape Cod to Down East Maine are all at risk for rain and wind. The good news... the Eastern US Coast will be on the Western side of the storm so most of the flow should be offshore which will help with tidal flooding and beach erosion. It won't be much different from a typical Nor Easter to be honest. 50-60 mph gusts possible, potentially 70+ for Down East Maine. It depends on where the center makes landfall of course. NS is the most likely spot to receive hurricane force wind gusts for sure.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 2:17 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:29 pm The cone has suffered serious shrinkage the last few days . A NS landfall of what’s left of Lee is almost a lock at this point, which has been the most likely spot from the NHC boys for at least a week. All the hype from the usual suspects for naught once again

Due to this system becoming extra tropical, the wind field and overall size of the storm will be expanding as Lee heads northbound. The coastal regions from Cape Cod to Down East Maine are all at risk for rain and wind. The good news... the Eastern US Coast will be on the Western side of the storm so most of the flow should be offshore which will help with tidal flooding and beach erosion. It won't be much different from a typical Nor Easter to be honest. 50-60 mph gusts possible, potentially 70+ for Down East Maine. It depends on where the center makes landfall of course. NS is the most likely spot to receive hurricane force wind gusts for sure.

Agree, for US mainland , 50-60 gusts max along coast line ,with sustained winds in the max range of 35-45 , along coastal regions, . Here is 5pm update, and a slight jog eastward compared to earlier

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 2:17 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:29 pm The cone has suffered serious shrinkage the last few days . A NS landfall of what’s left of Lee is almost a lock at this point, which has been the most likely spot from the NHC boys for at least a week. All the hype from the usual suspects for naught once again

Due to this system becoming extra tropical, the wind field and overall size of the storm will be expanding as Lee heads northbound. The coastal regions from Cape Cod to Down East Maine are all at risk for rain and wind. The good news... the Eastern US Coast will be on the Western side of the storm so most of the flow should be offshore which will help with tidal flooding and beach erosion. It won't be much different from a typical Nor Easter to be honest. 50-60 mph gusts possible, potentially 70+ for Down East Maine. It depends on where the center makes landfall of course. NS is the most likely spot to receive hurricane force wind gusts for sure.

Agree, for US mainland , 50-60 gusts max along coast line ,with sustained winds in the max range of 35-45 , along coastal regions, . Here is 5pm update, and a slight jog eastward compared to earlier


IMG_0611.jpeg

Oh wow! That is a fair amount East. If correct, Cape Cod may not get much of anything and only Down East Maine for CONUS impacts. The bigger story maybe the Bay of Fundy in NS. That area has the highest variation in tides on the plant! The low tides are really low and the high tides are really high! Billions of gallons of water move around in this area due to the tides and the Earth's gravitational pull. The timing of Lee and it's landfall location could be a serious issue for NS.

Lee is at 85 mph moving N at 16. It should make landfall in NS early on Sunday. Margot has winds of 70 mph and has weakened into a TS. Further weakening is expected as it meanders around in no mans land. Still waiting on the next TD to be born from the next tropical wave.

I’d bet the farm Lee is no longer a hurricane, but the NHC doesn’t want certain people along the coast to let their guard down , so they’ll keep it a hurricane a bit longer

TD 15 is now born out in the Central Atlantic. This will become TS Nigel soon and eventually a hurricane. A major hurricane is also possible with this system as it tracks NW towards Bermuda over the next 5-7 days. A recurving system is likely at this early stage of the game with a miss to the CONUS. Of course, if anything changes you'll know right here on AV.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 15, 2023 11:19 am I’d bet the farm Lee is no longer a hurricane, but the NHC doesn’t want certain people along the coast to let their guard down , so they’ll keep it a hurricane a bit longer

Based on recent satellite imagery, I would venture to say that Lee is extra tropical. There is nothing on the southside of the circulation but dry air and any intense rain / wind will be on the northern side of the system.