Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:16 am**

HRRR is showing some rather robust convection this evening. Could be some nice wind gusts and some large hail associated with those! Also lots of lightning unlike last time.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:20 am**

SPC currently does not have us in a tornado risk but after looking at things, can’t rule out a spinner. I would imagine they will add us to the 2% in future outlooks.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:22 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:14 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:56 am Trev has quite a few new home screens to choose from.

It looks like you can stay out of your den until maybe after the 10th? We know you'll come out of hibernation for today since we're looking at record highs again.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:23 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:22 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:14 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:56 am Trev has quite a few new home screens to choose from.

It looks like you can stay out of your den until maybe after the 10th? We know you'll come out of hibernation for today since we're looking at record highs again.

Lol! Definitely not liking the looks of the long range. But par the course, Springs have been total shit here for the last few years. You’ll get your death band of concrete in April, I just know it

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:25 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:23 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:22 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:14 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:56 am Trev has quite a few new home screens to choose from.

It looks like you can stay out of your den until maybe after the 10th? We know you'll come out of hibernation for today since we're looking at record highs again.
Lol! Definitely not liking the looks of the long range. But par the course, Springs have been total shit here for the last few years. You’ll get your death band of concrete in April, I just know it

I'm sure I will. Probably when I'm at Lake Erie next month.

Would rather have it this month though and have a milder April. But you know that's too much to ask.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:28 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:23 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:22 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:14 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:56 am Trev has quite a few new home screens to choose from.

It looks like you can stay out of your den until maybe after the 10th? We know you'll come out of hibernation for today since we're looking at record highs again.
Lol! Definitely not liking the looks of the long range. But par the course, Springs have been total shit here for the last few years. You’ll get your death band of concrete in April, I just know it

I literally had more accumulated frost depth than snow depth

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:32 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:28 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:23 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:22 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:14 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:56 am Trev has quite a few new home screens to choose from.

It looks like you can stay out of your den until maybe after the 10th? We know you'll come out of hibernation for today since we're looking at record highs again.
Lol! Definitely not liking the looks of the long range. But par the course, Springs have been total shit here for the last few years. You’ll get your death band of concrete in April, I just know it
I literally had more accumulated frost depth than snow depth

Lol!! Facts.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:42 am**

Good Morning and do we beat the record high of 71 today? Should be no problem unless the clouds build up quicker than I expect. Was going to seed but with the heavy rain later Thursday and Friday I will probably do that over the weekend.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:49 am**

Good morning Tim! Agree that we should beat the record for today. Any storms should hold off until near or just after sunset IMO.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:53 am**

Yeah I like middle 70s for most. These types of setups always overachieve.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:58 am**

Already 53 in my backyard so should be in the 65-70 range by noon.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:05 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:53 am Yeah I like middle 70s for most. These types of setups always overachieve.

Totally agree. Air mass is relatively dry too. I'm not sure about coverage for those scattered storms by this evening... we'll have some lift and such but will the dews jump up this afternoon or mix down as the boundary layer warms due to plentiful sunshine?

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:12 am**

12Z NAM pops a brief surface low along the front which gives it a kick. Along and SE of I-71 appears to be the best location as well. NAM doing NAM things:

NAM.png

HRRR is a little more reserved.

HRRR.png

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:32 am**

12Z NAM for Fri has the low tracking thru South Central / SE IN now.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:40 am**

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:01 am**

58 now... ILN raised my hood to the upper 70s!

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:19 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:23 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:22 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:14 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:56 am Trev has quite a few new home screens to choose from.

It looks like you can stay out of your den until maybe after the 10th? We know you'll come out of hibernation for today since we're looking at record highs again.
Lol! Definitely not liking the looks of the long range. But par the course, Springs have been total shit here for the last few years. You’ll get your death band of concrete in April, I just know it

I hope not. I believe 2 years ago that happened. Trees up here lost limbs and had some major damage to them.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:49 am**

12Z GFS for Friday tracks a 985 MB low thru about Muncie, IN weakening to a 990 MB Low near CLE.

EDIT: 1.66" of rain at CVG.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:40 am**

12Z OP GFS March 8-10th builds the colder air in as the baroclinic boundary finally sinks to the south. Now, it is all about the timing of energy getting ejected from the Western US trough. Multiple pieces or one big piece? That will determine how strong the system developing for after the 10th is going to be. On this run, we warm up enough since the energy is slow in coming out so that it's rain by the 11-12th. Long ways to go with this set up after the 10th.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:42 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:49 am 12Z GFS for Friday tracks a 985 MB low thru about Muncie, IN weakening to a 990 MB Low near CLE.

EDIT: 1.66" of rain at CVG.

Les the 1-2 inches of rainfall looks good on your prediction. If someone gets in the correct place with the heaviest rain over 2 inches is possible but I like the 1--2 inch call.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:44 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:40 am 12Z OP GFS March 8-10th builds the colder air in as the baroclinic boundary finally sinks to the south. Now, it is all about the timing of energy getting ejected from the Western US trough. Multiple pieces or one big piece? That will determine how strong the system developing for after the 10th is going to be. On this run, we warm up enough since the energy is slow in coming out so that it's rain by the 11-12th. Long ways to go with this set up after the 10th.

Les you can see this in the extended where we are getting a nice break from systems and colder air is able to move further south. Still to early on chances of snow but at least something to follow besides severe weather.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:45 am**

12Z CMC decides to close off the northern stream s/w which spawns a big EC Low by Day 10. We get some light front end rains then snow showers with the upper low. Nice Lake Effect pattern too. Models clearly will struggle with this new pattern regime, but this appears to be our next window, disappointment, etc

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:03 pm**

72 now as of 1pm here and at CVG. Record is broken now but it likely to get smashed!

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:13 pm**

12Z Euro coming in with 1.11" for Friday's system. Low track is a tad stronger NW of the GFS.

Posted: **Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:36 pm**

Per ILN as of 1:30pm - All climate sites are smashing their old records.

CVG - 74 new record thus far
DAY - 69 new record thus far
CMH - 68 new record thus far

Absolute Vorticity

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