January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Great posts Tim! We do need to watch the timing of the incoming rains for Monday Night Football. Originally, it looked like the rain was going to hold off until near the end of the game. Hopefully that holds. A little too far out in time still honestly to make an accurate call.

[tron777]

I have mentioned several times, that the upcoming modeled pattern at 500 MB looks like a pattern you'd typically see in an El Nino. An Aleutian Low, ridging over Canada and below normal heights in the SE US. That is text book El Nino but we're in a borderline weak to Moderate La Nina (per ONI index) and a third year Nina at that. This look should not be happening with that ENSO background state. But we've got it showing up inside of Day 10 now so it's no longer model fantasy. It has a legit possibility. Get it to 5 days and confidence can really go up! Anyway, I am sure there have been a few other instances of this occurring. Getting an El Nino like pattern with an actual La Nina background ENSO state. 09-10 doesn't count. That was an El Nino winter. I just wish I could figure out how to find that out. This is a good project for a climatologist or a real Met. I love to research cool things like this, as you all know, but even I have my limits.

Great write-up here from the CPC on the weakening La Nina. Looks like we're going to peak with an ONI of -1.0C -0.5 is a Nina so a high end weak, low end mod Nina basically here. But it is weakening. I think it's very important that we continue to track this in the coming weeks. If it weakens quickly, that could bode well for the rest of our winter as we've already touched on. Could this upcoming El Nino-ish pattern be the beginning of the end of La Nina?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[tron777]

12Z NAM ends before game time but by the looks of it, if the SE Ridge can win that battle, we can try to keep the rain off to the West for the game. We will continue to watch this as some of you on here I am sure have tickets for the big game against Josh Allen and Co. In fact, let me get a separate thread going for the forecast discussion for the game itself.

[tron777]

Please use this thread for the MNF Big Game discussion. Thanks all!

https://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic.php?t=209

[tron777]

12Z GFS puts in briefly in the warm sector Tues morning with a weakening line of storms associated with the cold front. Severe threat is SW of us but not zero as Bgoney said.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS puts in briefly in the warm sector Tues morning with a weakening line of storms associated with the cold front. Severe threat is SW of us but not zero as Bgoney said.

I agree and never say zero but the low seems to be further south and this should also take the severe threat further south as well. Gusty winds and some heavy rain and never say never to a rumble of thunder but imo severe threat is limited and short-lived.

[tron777]

12Z GFS lost the phasing for 1/6, so that puts 7-10th back into play. A weak system on this run for sure with little impacts for us.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS lost the phasing for 1/6, so that puts 7-10th back into play. A weak system on this run for sure with little impacts for us.

Les I still like the 7th-10th and never fell for the early time of phasing. NAO is still positive and heading towards neutral and just need a little more time. A couple of light to moderate systems before we really start to get going at mid-month. If one of the tellies or mjo shows something different then the run of the model may look different.

[tron777]

12Z GFS lost the phasing for 1/6, so that puts 7-10th back into play. A weak system on this run for sure with little impacts for us.

Les I still like the 7th-10th and never fell for the early time of phasing. NAO is still positive and heading towards neutral and just need a little more time. A couple of light to moderate systems before we really start to get going at mid-month. If one of the tellies or mjo shows something different then the run of the model may look different.

I've always liked the 7-10th period better too. The 6th maybe just model noise. I still like that signal towards mid month for a bigger system.

[tron777]

12Z Euro for the night of the 2nd / 3rd coming in with 1.43" at CVG so I like that 1-2" call for this system. Rainfall timing is Mon evening thru late Tues night. Slower frontal passage so t-storm risk for sure Tues afternoon and evening if we can get enough instability. Dynamics are more important in the cold season but I see what Bgoney is seeing with an isolated damaging wind risk possible on Tues. More so as one travels south and west of course.

[tron777]

With the front being slower thanks to a stronger SE ridge, that may allow for the 6th to try and do something. This is obviously a low chance. 7-10th is more likely for something. But the 12Z Euro shows what can happen with the correct timing. It has been the most consistent with trying to do something on the 6th with the front banked up against the Apps. GFS has been on and off with that potential. It isn't dead and needs to be watched with that one eye open look. Again, I am with Tim, I still favor the 7-10th. Euro is the outlier solution with regards to slowness with a Wed AM frontal passage for us versus Tues night at midnight or whatever. Euro is not as progressive with the flow as other models which is why the risk for 1/6 exists. I'm not saying its right or wrong just discussing the possibility Just need things to slow down a bit more and once the upper low drops in, bingo! That is the only way 1/6 can work. The below 500 MB map is so close to going boom. Just need that process to be 6-12 hours sooner and get it closed off.

500hv.conus.png

[tron777]

Models continue to show warmth and rain one run to cold and a snow storm on the next. Very low confidence from 1/5 onwards to be honest right now. Still have the rain maker obviously to deal with Mon night thru Tues night. Do we see that follow up wave for Wed into Thurs? All rain? Rain to some flakes? Or nothing at all? Do we still have anything happening during the 7-10th period? How about the big storm signal as we approach mid month? All questions I will have more time to answer as we get closer.

[tpweather]

Models continue to show warmth and rain one run to cold and a snow storm on the next. Very low confidence from 1/5 onwards to be honest right now. Still have the rain maker obviously to deal with Mon night thru Tues night. Do we see that follow up wave for Wed into Thurs? All rain? Rain to some flakes? Or nothing at all? Do we still have anything happening during the 7-10th period? How about the big storm signal as we approach mid month? All questions I will have more time to answer as we get closer.

Good Morning Les and plenty of questions that need answering. I will keep the forecast which of course is the rain late Monday and Tuesday though some models have this into Wednesday. Then a seasonal pattern imo and still believe a system will be in here between the 7th and 10th. Then what happens at mid-month and beyond. No doubt getting cold where you expect that to happen and the coldest is located in eastern Siberia where we saw those temps nearing -80 in Dec. So far I see -60 as the PV is doing just fine. Still plenty of cold in Canada though it has got milder but a more seasonal cold for them. If I start to see the cold head toward western Siberia or eastern Europe that is a sign the cold may have a harder time making it down here later this month but so far no signs of that happening

[tron777]

As of 12/29 it's halfway thru Phase 6 per the Aussies so it is no doubt by now closer to getting into Phase 7. Can we finally get to 8 or do we get the usual stalling in 7 or Circle of Death? That may play a role in the mid month and beyond look.

[Bgoney]

As of 12/29 it's halfway thru Phase 6 per the Aussies so it is no doubt by now closer to getting into Phase 7. Can we finally get to 8 or do we get the usual stalling in 7 or Circle of Death? That may play a role in the mid month and beyond look.

Personally leaning to a slow crawl / stall in seven . How long I can't say. Going by satellite, agree, more of a Phase 6 and edging toward 7

[tpweather]

As of 12/29 it's halfway thru Phase 6 per the Aussies so it is no doubt by now closer to getting into Phase 7. Can we finally get to 8 or do we get the usual stalling in 7 or Circle of Death? That may play a role in the mid month and beyond look.

Good Morning Les and this wave started out rather strong but its moving and seems to be weakening as it moves towards phases 7 and 8. How much of a roll does it play continues to be a question mark because though it has influence on the pattern I don't believe its the controlling pattern. As we move into the month we still want the STJ to be active but instead of a system every 2-3 days you want that to be spread out more so cold air from Canada can work itself into the USA. Many times you will get a stronger storm like the one we see early in the week will be able to tap the colder air in Canada and bring it southward but this time the true polar air has not arrived which I would expect more towards mid-month.

I know many folks see these 6-10 days forecast maps and believe winter is over and far from the truth plus these maps are just probabilities of either a warmer or colder than normal. We are getting into the coldest part of winter so temps average around 38 for highs and lows 22.

[tron777]

As of 12/29 it's halfway thru Phase 6 per the Aussies so it is no doubt by now closer to getting into Phase 7. Can we finally get to 8 or do we get the usual stalling in 7 or Circle of Death? That may play a role in the mid month and beyond look.

Personally leaning to a slow crawl / stall in seven . How long I can't say. Going by satellite, agree, more of a Phase 6 and edging toward 7

That's been the trend. I've noticed some of the newer guidance has backed off on that Phase 8 look from the other day. Probably explains why the OP models (esp the GFS) are swinging so wildly from run to run trying to figure out what the pattern is ultimately going to do.

[tron777]

As of 12/29 it's halfway thru Phase 6 per the Aussies so it is no doubt by now closer to getting into Phase 7. Can we finally get to 8 or do we get the usual stalling in 7 or Circle of Death? That may play a role in the mid month and beyond look.

Good Morning Les and this wave started out rather strong but its moving and seems to be weakening as it moves towards phases 7 and 8. How much of a roll does it play continues to be a question mark because though it has influence on the pattern I don't believe its the controlling pattern. As we move into the month we still want the STJ to be active but instead of a system every 2-3 days you want that to be spread out more so cold air from Canada can work itself into the USA. Many times you will get a stronger storm like the one we see early in the week will be able to tap the colder air in Canada and bring it southward but this time the true polar air has not arrived which I would expect more towards mid-month.

I know many folks see these 6-10 days forecast maps and believe winter is over and far from the truth plus these maps are just probabilities of either a warmer or colder than normal. We are getting into the coldest part of winter so temps average around 38 for highs and lows 22.

Good morning Tim! The GEFS and EPS overnight didn't look to shabby. EPS is kicking the can to the better looking pattern, but the GEFS maintained and even has a +PNA out in la la land trying to develop.

[Bgoney]

As of 12/29 it's halfway thru Phase 6 per the Aussies so it is no doubt by now closer to getting into Phase 7. Can we finally get to 8 or do we get the usual stalling in 7 or Circle of Death? That may play a role in the mid month and beyond look.

Personally leaning to a slow crawl / stall in seven . How long I can't say. Going by satellite, agree, more of a Phase 6 and edging toward 7

That's been the trend. I've noticed some of the newer guidance has backed off on that Phase 8 look from the other day. Probably explains why the OP models (esp the GFS) are swinging so wildly from run to run trying to figure out what the pattern is ultimately going to do.

The conditions in the west pac are just to hostile still to expect an 8 Phase with any type of sustained strength and or eastward movement

[tron777]

As of 12/29 it's halfway thru Phase 6 per the Aussies so it is no doubt by now closer to getting into Phase 7. Can we finally get to 8 or do we get the usual stalling in 7 or Circle of Death? That may play a role in the mid month and beyond look.

Personally leaning to a slow crawl / stall in seven . How long I can't say. Going by satellite, agree, more of a Phase 6 and edging toward 7

That's been the trend. I've noticed some of the newer guidance has backed off on that Phase 8 look from the other day. Probably explains why the OP models (esp the GFS) are swinging so wildly from run to run trying to figure out what the pattern is ultimately going to do.

The conditions in the west pac are just to hostile still to expect an 8 Phase with any type of sustained strength and or eastward movement

I agree. The Western Pacific waters are still cold. The Nina is weakening from the East not the other way around so until those SST's warm, I'm afraid you're going to be correct with this thinking. The SOI is still majorly positive and I don't see that changing anytime soon. That does bother me, but at the same time, this Nino-ish sort of pattern that is upcoming to at least turn us back to seasonal cold, it's not the norm either with this La Nina background state. Do you have any thoughts on this? (Tim, you also?)

[tpweather]

Just saw the latest Nam and yes some heavy rain but moves the system through quickly which is a good thing. I want to see the main models today and I see something between the lines and hopefully the models pick up on this. Either way I will try and explain what I see after the runs of the models and hopefully I can point it out because many times I am pointing out things that the models don't show and always nice to have visuals.

[Bgoney]

As of 12/29 it's halfway thru Phase 6 per the Aussies so it is no doubt by now closer to getting into Phase 7. Can we finally get to 8 or do we get the usual stalling in 7 or Circle of Death? That may play a role in the mid month and beyond look.

Personally leaning to a slow crawl / stall in seven . How long I can't say. Going by satellite, agree, more of a Phase 6 and edging toward 7

That's been the trend. I've noticed some of the newer guidance has backed off on that Phase 8 look from the other day. Probably explains why the OP models (esp the GFS) are swinging so wildly from run to run trying to figure out what the pattern is ultimately going to do.

The conditions in the west pac are just to hostile still to expect an 8 Phase with any type of sustained strength and or eastward movement

I agree. The Western Pacific waters are still cold. The Nina is weakening from the East not the other way around so until those SST's warm, I'm afraid you're going to be correct with this thinking. The SOI is still majorly positive and I don't see that changing anytime soon. That does bother me, but at the same time, this Nino-ish sort of pattern that is upcoming to at least turn us back to seasonal cold, it's not the norm either with this La Nina background state. Do you have any thoughts on this? (Tim, you also?)

I want to check on something when I have a minute to respond. In the middle of a process for homemade jelly for my belly.

[tpweather]

Personally leaning to a slow crawl / stall in seven . How long I can't say. Going by satellite, agree, more of a Phase 6 and edging toward 7

That's been the trend. I've noticed some of the newer guidance has backed off on that Phase 8 look from the other day. Probably explains why the OP models (esp the GFS) are swinging so wildly from run to run trying to figure out what the pattern is ultimately going to do.

The conditions in the west pac are just to hostile still to expect an 8 Phase with any type of sustained strength and or eastward movement

I agree. The Western Pacific waters are still cold. The Nina is weakening from the East not the other way around so until those SST's warm, I'm afraid you're going to be correct with this thinking. The SOI is still majorly positive and I don't see that changing anytime soon. That does bother me, but at the same time, this Nino-ish sort of pattern that is upcoming to at least turn us back to seasonal cold, it's not the norm either with this La Nina background state. Do you have any thoughts on this? (Tim, you also?)

I want to check on something when I have a minute to respond. In the middle of a process for homemade jelly for my belly.

What kind of jelly? My favorite is strawberry

[tron777]

No problem guys! Respond whenever you can. I am leaving in a little bit anyway.

[Bgoney]

That's been the trend. I've noticed some of the newer guidance has backed off on that Phase 8 look from the other day. Probably explains why the OP models (esp the GFS) are swinging so wildly from run to run trying to figure out what the pattern is ultimately going to do.

The conditions in the west pac are just to hostile still to expect an 8 Phase with any type of sustained strength and or eastward movement

I agree. The Western Pacific waters are still cold. The Nina is weakening from the East not the other way around so until those SST's warm, I'm afraid you're going to be correct with this thinking. The SOI is still majorly positive and I don't see that changing anytime soon. That does bother me, but at the same time, this Nino-ish sort of pattern that is upcoming to at least turn us back to seasonal cold, it's not the norm either with this La Nina background state. Do you have any thoughts on this? (Tim, you also?)

I want to check on something when I have a minute to respond. In the middle of a process for homemade jelly for my belly.

What kind of jelly? My favorite is strawberry

You know it. Is there any other kind?