Absolute Vorticity

Wow! A major blizzard is becoming increasing likely. Track thru central Indiana and to have it bomb out like that would still be a wild Friday for us and big impacts too!

Man! The winds are going to be impressive!! 25-35mph with gusts over 40

Agree , like we mentioned this morning , even a track west of CVG would stlll be a major storm

Here's CVG:. I'd guess 4" of snow with those winds! WOW. Flash freeze potential also.

CMC is EVV to CVG to Lake Erie . Not as much snow as GFS since it doesn't bomb out as much but still an impressive system.

Those snow totals for Indiana , even with that track are so overdone(GFS) , I can believe the track of the low but no way do i buy anything close to those higher totals

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:39 am Those snow totals for Indiana , even with that track are so overdone(GFS) , I can believe the track of the low but no way do i buy anything close to those higher totals

I agree. Max ceiling to me is like the 8-12" range if the low bombs out and slows down for a short time.

12Z Gefs mean tracks the low thru our SE counties.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:03 pm 12Z Gefs mean tracks the low thru our SE counties.

So we currently have a low track through central Indiana and a low track through our SE counties?

Is that right, Les?

Why am I having a bad feeling that this storm is going to end up tracking through Chicago? I sure hope this west trend doesn’t continue

Happy winter and merry Christmas! Les how’s this storm looking for us Lake Erie residents?

Pete1 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:03 pm 12Z Gefs mean tracks the low thru our SE counties.

So we currently have a low track through central Indiana and a low track through our SE counties?

Is that right, Les?

Pretty much. Euro starts in 45 mins.

Blogsdon wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:15 pm Happy winter and merry Christmas! Les how’s this storm looking for us Lake Erie residents?

Rain to snow windy as all get out and some lake effect snow too depending on track and wind flow behind the storm. It is going to be impactful in some form for all locations

Good Afternoon and have not checked out the models yet but even before I do that the models are really not that far apart 4 days away. How many times have we seen storms at this point and one model is an east coast storm and one a cutter. Will look at the models before the nfl starts. Again not worried about snow totals but how quickly cold air gets into this system. Please no flash freeze but my gut tells me that could be a problem

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:03 pm 12Z Gefs mean tracks the low thru our SE counties.

That's been steadily moving/trending NW

Yeah models not good today.... Hope they recorrect east!

I did say last night I feel nervous about being in the bullseye this far out, maybe it is a sign haha.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:03 pm 12Z Gefs mean tracks the low thru our SE counties.

That's been steadily moving/trending NW

Yes it has. A track thru Indiana wouldn't shock me or over Cincy etc.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:32 pm Yeah models not good today.... Hope they recorrect east!

It's going to be a hell of a storm though regardless imo and still impactful even though we may not get the big dog we had hoped for.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:18 pm Good Afternoon and have not checked out the models yet but even before I do that the models are really not that far apart 4 days away. How many times have we seen storms at this point and one model is an east coast storm and one a cutter. Will look at the models before the nfl starts. Again not worried about snow totals but how quickly cold air gets into this system. Please no flash freeze but my gut tells me that could be a problem

The flash freeze potential definitely concerns me.

Okay looked at the gfs and cmc and really not much change. Remember each time you must not just look at where the low may show up on the models but has the storm strengthen or weaken and has the timing sped up or slowed down. I will look at the Euro a little later but the noon time models for the gfs and cmc look very similar to their recent runs. Again I believe the most likely change will probably be on Tuesday and that is when I believe the models really grasp on the depth of this cold air. The coldest of air has moved out of Siberia and is in the Yukon. This was predicted and a good sign. One thing we must remember is we do not warm up much this week so the amount of time to get roads turning into ice is very quickly.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:42 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:18 pm Good Afternoon and have not checked out the models yet but even before I do that the models are really not that far apart 4 days away. How many times have we seen storms at this point and one model is an east coast storm and one a cutter. Will look at the models before the nfl starts. Again not worried about snow totals but how quickly cold air gets into this system. Please no flash freeze but my gut tells me that could be a problem

The flash freeze potential definitely concerns me.

Yes it could be , but I'm not ready to put it in the likely category just yet, I think it will be determined by the track. If we get dry slotted before the bitter temps the winds may have a chance to dry things a bit

This is going to be one heck of a storm!!! Snow will fall and it will be very cold and windy! Will be interesting to see more runs.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:42 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:18 pm Good Afternoon and have not checked out the models yet but even before I do that the models are really not that far apart 4 days away. How many times have we seen storms at this point and one model is an east coast storm and one a cutter. Will look at the models before the nfl starts. Again not worried about snow totals but how quickly cold air gets into this system. Please no flash freeze but my gut tells me that could be a problem

The flash freeze potential definitely concerns me.

Yes it could be , but I'm not ready to put it in the likely category just yet, I think it will be determined by the track. If we get dry slotted before the bitter temps the winds may have a chance to dry things a bit

True. The dry slot would be the only saving grace. Good point!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:09 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:42 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:18 pm Good Afternoon and have not checked out the models yet but even before I do that the models are really not that far apart 4 days away. How many times have we seen storms at this point and one model is an east coast storm and one a cutter. Will look at the models before the nfl starts. Again not worried about snow totals but how quickly cold air gets into this system. Please no flash freeze but my gut tells me that could be a problem

The flash freeze potential definitely concerns me.

Yes it could be , but I'm not ready to put it in the likely category just yet, I think it will be determined by the track. If we get dry slotted before the bitter temps the winds may have a chance to dry things a bit

True. The dry slot would be the only saving grace. Good point!

Dry slot would be a saving grace like you mentioned and Bgoney and Les I believe this is what we wish for in this situation. My problem is the system is just really starting to get strong and does it have enough time to wrap a dry slot in here. Usually we see dry slots with strong storms but seems to me its many hours later we develop the dry slot and this development of the storm is going to be quick.

Biggest change on the EU is not the track but how once it gets to michigan it almost stalls for 12 to 18 hours