December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Tim... you know the classic GFS Fantasy snow storm is going to be showing up. We are absolutely going to see some wild solutions this week on the OP models so Ensemble models are going to hopefully be more helpful until we get closer in time. I'll tell ya one thing... the EPS continues to look fantastic in the long range. We go from the -PNA, -EPO, -AO, and developing -NAO pattern to one of +PNA, -EPO, -AO, and -NAO. Things are going to get wild should this look hold in my opinion.

EPS1.png

EPS2.png

[tpweather]

Tim... you know the classic GFS Fantasy snow storm is going to be showing up. We are absolutely going to see some wild solutions this week on the OP models so Ensemble models are going to hopefully be more helpful until we get closer in time. I'll tell ya one thing... the EPS continues to look fantastic in the long range. We go from the -PNA, -EPO, -AO, and developing -NAO pattern to one of +PNA, -EPO, -AO, and -NAO. Things are going to get wild should this look hold in my opinion.


EPS1.png


EPS2.png

Les love the maps and lets see if we can get some of that moisture over Hawaii undercut the western ridge and head into Northern Mexico and the southern USA. Love to see the western ridge a little further west but not going to picky at this stage of the game.

[tron777]

Tim... you know the classic GFS Fantasy snow storm is going to be showing up. We are absolutely going to see some wild solutions this week on the OP models so Ensemble models are going to hopefully be more helpful until we get closer in time. I'll tell ya one thing... the EPS continues to look fantastic in the long range. We go from the -PNA, -EPO, -AO, and developing -NAO pattern to one of +PNA, -EPO, -AO, and -NAO. Things are going to get wild should this look hold in my opinion.


EPS1.png


EPS2.png

Les love the maps and lets see if we can get some of that moisture over Hawaii undercut the western ridge and head into Northern Mexico and the southern USA. Love to see the western ridge a little further west but not going to picky at this stage of the game.

We share the same concern at this time, but you know the models are going to change as the pattern gets more established. A lot of fun ahead for us snow weenies!

[tron777]

As of 11/29, the MJO is in weak Phase 8 and it is headed to the neutral circle if it isn't already there. The models that got it correct by having the MJO getting into 8 then dying all show it staying in the neutral circle thru 12/15. The blocking pattern is going to be taking over now is what that tells us. PNA is forecast to get near neutral if not perhaps weakly positive by mid month. AO, NAO, and EPO all forecast to remain negative thru mid month. So guys... we've done the research and the pattern is coming. No doubt about it. How each individual storm system reacts is our job and the fun that we get to have on here.

[tpweather]

As of 11/29, the MJO is in weak Phase 8 and it is headed to the neutral circle if it isn't already there. The models that got it correct by having the MJO getting into 8 then dying all show it staying in the neutral circle thru 12/15. The blocking pattern is going to be taking over now is what that tells us. PNA is forecast to get near neutral if not perhaps weakly positive by mid month. AO, NAO, and EPO all forecast to remain negative thru mid month. So guys... we've done the research and the pattern is coming. No doubt about it. How each individual storm system reacts is our job and the fun that we get to have on here.

The COD coming out of phase 8 is not a bad thing at all imo. Lets see later this month if it remains in the COD or heads back into phase 7 which later in December is a really good phase to start as you would expect it to move into phases 8 and 1 after that. Time to watch and yes the PNA heading towards neutral is wonderful and hopefully it stays there are slightly positive. Like you mentioned Les details on each storm comes later but so far the trend for next week is the systems are a little further south and somewhat colder which is exactly what we thought would happen but it takes the models a little extra time when it comes to large cold outbreaks.

[tron777]

Found some interesting stats on the AO for December. Below is the forecast for the AO from the EPS and GEFS.

EPS AO.png

GEFS AO.png

Now if you look at that, you'll notice the AO dips to a value of -4. What other Decembers featured massive blocking where the AO dipped to -4 SD since 1950:

2009
1976
2010
2000
1968
1963
1950
1995
1978
1962
1966

I'll bet most of you remember those wonderful Decembers and really the ensuing winter! Hmmm... wonder how this season will shake out? The pattern is evolving as such that once this block relaxes, it should reload for early January, I do not think this is a one and done block. The atmosphere is warm and the PV is weak and actually, if we get another SSW event (which is being forecast in January) that may also give us more interesting weather. A lot of the time, when we get a PV split, the coldest of air is in Asia. We see that a lot. I do not think that occurs this year due to the coldest air already being on our side of the pole anyway. As usual, we shall see but anyway if the above AO stats still hold true, we should get locked into a nice wintry pattern!

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Les I saw Brian's video and if he is correct once again the change to a colder and more winter like pattern falls right in the middle of what we both have forecast. This happens so often its almost scary.

[tron777]

Les I saw Brian's video and if he is correct once again the change to a colder and more winter like pattern falls right in the middle of what we both have forecast. This happens so often its almost scary.

It is almost scary how the advertised pattern is looking. How many times have we seen things look good only to see it go completely wrong? Look at the string of warm Decembers we have had. It's almost like something just feels different going into this season. Things look great and have looked great for a long time. We were seeing this potential 3-4 weeks ago on the Euro Weekly runs and CFSV2. They missed the Nov cold spell we had. Euro Weeklies the last several years have performed terribly. So far this autumn, the modeling has done a fantastic job for once. Nothing is a guarantee in weather but you cannot help but be a little bit excited about our future weather pattern. Best White Christmas potential that I have seen since 2010.

[tron777]

Oh wow... guys, if you take those years I posted with -4 AO Decembers, you get this:

500 MB Comp.png

What happened in Feb and March? Late season blocking like in Feb of 2010 as an example. I got to quit looking at the data, I am getting too excited here!

500 MB Feb Mar.png

[tpweather]

Les I am trying to find a good analog but not sure any one year fits perfectly which is what you would expect. Your knowledge and memory on these years are wonderful. To me and not sure if fits the current pattern but what about 2000-01 as we ended a 3 year run of a La Nina. Thanks for any help on this and I know other years had some similar conditions but would greatly appreciate what years you are looking at this season

[tron777]

Les I am trying to find a good analog but not sure any one year fits perfectly which is what you would expect. Your knowledge and memory on these years are wonderful. To me and not sure if fits the current pattern but what about 2000-01 as we ended a 3 year run of a La Nina. Thanks for any help on this and I know other years had some similar conditions but would greatly appreciate what years you are looking at this season

2000-2001 is a good analog Tim. I have mentioned it before. That was our last third year Nina. Dec 2000 was cold and snowy for sure that year but if my memory is right, we did not get a second round of blocking that I am expecting this year. 2010-2011 looked like the top analog a few days ago to me, which is great for December but winter did not come back in 2011 (Jan - Mar) because of the lack of blocking thanks to the La Nina. This year looks more like 09-10 which featured a ton of blocking despite it being a moderate El Nino, as well as 95-96 which was a Mod Nina. Using a blend of those years would still give us some nice wintry stretches!

[winterstormjoe]

So, in reading all the post I'm taking it that once the new pattern gets established over the next couple of weeks we'll need to see where the pieces of energy move around to give us snow. For example, the 06z GFS through in this little system at 300 hrs which is fantasy of course but the point being that the models will be placing snow potential on and off all over the eastern half of the US.

[tron777]

Great post Joe.... each individual storm system will change this far away but the potential is really really looking good! DT posted another This Week in Weather last night so here we go:

[tpweather]

Hey Joe and good to see you posting. I believe the biggest problem we have is getting enough moisture to head this far north at times. The cold is going to be there but you hate to waste it while the precip part is light. Again some snow will fall but can we get a couple of the 2-5 inches or maybe one bigger snow and again that is unknown at this time. If this was an El Nino year where moisture is more plentiful I would be dancing which is not a pretty site so hopefully we can get some of the wonderful moisture around Hawaii to works its way in the southern USA in a few weeks.

[tpweather]

Great Video by DT. Again he is one of the best for longer term forecast imo and his weakness comes with a storm 2-5 days away. Never seem him this excited especially this early in the season. He mentioned the Polar Vortex and again I mentioned this a few days ago that the cold weather in Northern Canada was starting to move and that is the polar vortex . With the nao going really negative this is going to bring cold air down into the USA and at first a gradual move and you see this storm systems in the extended forecast and when each one passes we get a little colder behind each system. This is good imo because what I have seen many times is you get this big movement of cold air that moves through but 5 days later we are back to normal land which can be quite boring at times. I love the way the pattern is developing and chances of snow go up but once again does not mean we get hit hard. We have seen patterns where we end up with say 4-8 inches over a 3 week period and folks in say Lexington during the same period get 12-16 inches. That is something we need to watch as once the pattern sets up storm systems tend to repeat themselves for a period of time.

[tron777]

That's the thing... I think the STJ will be active which is more indicative of an El Nino vs a La Nina. 95-96 was a La Nina winter but it behaved more like a Nino because of the blocking and STJ. Could this winter do the same? We'll find out together!

[airwolf76]

pretty nice December day. a little cooler then avg. partly cloudy with a nice cool breeze from the northwest. lots of potential in the long range for sure. the first week of December wont be anything but after that who knows maybe we will have a December to remember after all

[tron777]

pretty nice December day. a little cooler then avg. partly cloudy with a nice cool breeze from the northwest. lots of potential in the long range for sure. the first week of December wont be anything but after that who knows maybe we will have a December to remember after all

Things look favorable for sure Charles for both of our areas. Agree with you. If late next week or next weekend fails, that was just a bonus chance. The better potential is coming later which most on our forum is agreeing upon. That 12/10-12/15 time frame for the pattern to begin producing still looks good to me.

[tron777]

Today's 12Z OP GFS in my opinion shows a lot of potential. The first is next Friday / Sat as I've been talking about. If you look at the entire run, once the pattern gets going, we are on the edge of the arctic air masses which is a good place to be. Sure, you run the risk of a rainer or mixed precip but if you're deeply entrenched in cold, you are likely going to be cold and dry so it's a balancing act. I like what I am seeing and I'll leave it at that.

[tron777]

12z Canadian for that same system giving us some snow Fri / Sat of next week... it's further north and a bit stronger with the low so it's better for the I-70 Crew. Typical model silliness this far out but it's good to see more models showing a system, now for that time period. Precip type of course TBD.

[tron777]

I deleted that 12Z Euro post if anyone saw it because the model hasn't run that far out yet. Forgot I was still looking at the Canadian. I'll make a more accurate post shortly.

[tpweather]

Just a process and we do need the pna to get towards neutral or even a little positive and this will help systems dig further south. That is helped by ridging more on the west coast with systems going up and over the ridge and digging in the south central states. So in the next 10 days or so will continue to have mainly a west to east flow though each storm grabs a little more cold air. Do we get a big storm to bring in the bigger change and that happens quite often so we will see if that pans out in about 10 days or so. Models will flip back and forth and not worried about that at all because the pattern looks really nice for mid-Dec and it should last at least through the holidays. In the meantime lets just add more snow in the northern third of the country and this just makes it easier for the cold to have a highway towards us.

[tron777]

Ok so the Euro has the system still but it is much weaker and suppressed. No problems being 8 days or whatever out. I like the consistency we are starting to see at least with a system that has the potential to bring wintry weather to some portion of AV Country.

[tron777]

Just a process and we do need the pna to get towards neutral or even a little positive and this will help systems dig further south. That is helped by ridging more on the west coast with systems going up and over the ridge and digging in the south central states. So in the next 10 days or so will continue to have mainly a west to east flow though each storm grabs a little more cold air. Do we get a big storm to bring in the bigger change and that happens quite often so we will see if that pans out in about 10 days or so. Models will flip back and forth and not worried about that at all because the pattern looks really nice for mid-Dec and it should last at least through the holidays. In the meantime lets just add more snow in the northern third of the country and this just makes it easier for the cold to have a highway towards us.

The PNA is trying... Getting it towards neutral should work even if it doesn't necessarily get all the way to positive territory.

pna.gefs.sprd2.png