Absolute Vorticity

Good to see DT is seeing the same pattern as we do this forum. We have not rushed the pattern and have been talking about a bigger change around Thanksgiving or just after that into the first week of December. The main point which I have been bringing up for this winter is the blocking in Greenland and models are showing this happening which this showed up in October and many times that will repeat itself every 6 weeks or so. The build up of snow in Canada is huge in November and I believe that is much more important than snow build up in Siberia for the USA to have a decent winter.

Good morning all! Tim... sorry been busy working this morning but have some time now to post. I think we are right on the money with our step down process of thinking. This may time out great esp from mid Dec on. As of 11/2, the MJO is in 7 still but has begun moving towards 8. No idea what will happen of course, but it's moving. That's the important part. I am tracking where it moves as time goes on. As we've said and DT, the MJO is oh so critical in establishing an early long lasting wintry pattern.

EDIT: You get into Phase 8 in early Dec then those CFS maps he showed would absolutely be correct.

Good Morning and something we have not talked about much is the strong winds with the front on Saturday. There should be a brief period where winds are gusty and maybe over 40 mph at times. Just in case you were trying to rake leaves it makes it hard with those strong gusty winds.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 10:23 am Good Morning and something we have not talked about much is the strong winds with the front on Saturday. There should be a brief period where winds are gusty and maybe over 40 mph at times. Just in case you were trying to rake leaves it makes it hard with those strong gusty winds.

It is already getting breezy here with oak leaves a flyin'! I'll mulch leaves next week when it's mild and calmer wx again. Bad thing is,. smoking a brisket tomorrow in 40 some mph gusts and rain showers will be a challenge. You can't keep a good pit master down.

Low 70s, sunshine, breezy conditions and falling leaves. A nice November day! Nothing earth shattering on the 12z GFS., The mid month cold shot is transient as we talked about and expected. Flow looks semi-zonal to NW-erly so seasonal temps. No torch or arctic outbreaks noted after the mid month cold shot moves out. A step down process. PNA probably weakly negative or even neutral by then. Hoping to see more positive changes Thanksgiving and beyond.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 10:23 am Good Morning and something we have not talked about much is the strong winds with the front on Saturday. There should be a brief period where winds are gusty and maybe over 40 mph at times. Just in case you were trying to rake leaves it makes it hard with those strong gusty winds.

Hey Tim, normally I don't like a lot of wind, but I will welcome this wind as most of the leaves have fallen in my back yard and I was getting ready to rake tomorrow before the rain arrives. But I'm hoping I won't have to rake much and that the winds blow all the leaves out of my yard. Or at least pile them up like snow drifts and then I can just put it in bags.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 2:11 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 10:23 am Good Morning and something we have not talked about much is the strong winds with the front on Saturday. There should be a brief period where winds are gusty and maybe over 40 mph at times. Just in case you were trying to rake leaves it makes it hard with those strong gusty winds.

Hey Tim, normally I don't like a lot of wind, but I will welcome this wind as most of the leaves have fallen in my back yard and I was getting ready to rake tomorrow before the rain arrives. But I'm hoping I won't have to rake much and that the winds blow all the leaves out of my yard. Or at least pile them up like snow drifts and then I can just put it in bags.

Hey Joe, it sounds like you are wanting the wind to blow all your leaves into my backyard lol

12z Euro has about 0.21" at CVG with the next system so I think we've got the amounts nailed down. I also feel good about the timing... light to scattered late morning . midday increasing as we head into the afternoon. Then it's done by late evening to early morning across the region. Sunday thru at least Wed look mild and dry before we slowly start to turn things our way after that.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 2:31 pm 12z Euro has about 0.21" at CVG with the next system so I think we've got the amounts nailed down. I also feel good about the timing... light to scattered late morning . midday increasing as we head into the afternoon. Then it's done by late evening to early morning across the region. Sunday thru at least Wed look mild and dry before we slowly start to turn things our way after that.

Les it is funny concerning the system in the southeast next week and how the models have slowed down or even pushed the system further south because of the rather strong high that will be over the northeast. This gives me a better shot of probably 3 and maybe 4 days or dry weather. Then I will be heading home next Sunday and ready to talk a little about the upcoming pattern change.

Windy conditions are not always a dab thing.
I did a couple jobs today where the wind direction actually helped me..
Today the wind was my friend, tomorrow may be a different story..

Mjr wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 2:39 pm Windy conditions are not always a dab thing.
I did a couple jobs today where the wind direction actually helped me..
Today the wind was my friend, tomorrow may be a different story..

Seems like I always rake leaves on the days that causes me more trouble

Northwest Texas seeing their first snow of the year. Happens quite often they will get their first snow before we do.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 2:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 2:31 pm 12z Euro has about 0.21" at CVG with the next system so I think we've got the amounts nailed down. I also feel good about the timing... light to scattered late morning . midday increasing as we head into the afternoon. Then it's done by late evening to early morning across the region. Sunday thru at least Wed look mild and dry before we slowly start to turn things our way after that.

Les it is funny concerning the system in the southeast next week and how the models have slowed down or even pushed the system further south because of the rather strong high that will be over the northeast. This gives me a better shot of probably 3 and maybe 4 days or dry weather. Then I will be heading home next Sunday and ready to talk a little about the upcoming pattern change.

I sure hope it holds out for you Tim! Like fishing, golf is also more enjoyable with pleasant weather.

Mjr wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 2:39 pm Windy conditions are not always a dab thing.
I did a couple jobs today where the wind direction actually helped me..
Today the wind was my friend, tomorrow may be a different story..

I'm glad it's bringing leaves down and we have nice wx next week for clean up. But, for my brisket cook tomorrow it's gonna make it interesting along with the showers.

Euro looks cooler towards the end of the run after the front passes thru Thurs night into Vet's Day next week. Not looking like a bunch of rain with that system either.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, Southwest and
West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

A marginal risk now for tomorrow has been added from the SPC for strong winds.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 4:35 pm A marginal risk now for tomorrow has been added from the SPC for strong winds.


day2otlk_1730.gif

I agree with this and we are in November and the winds love to blow across the great lakes and ohio valley. Not a major outbreak but enough those decorative flags my wife has outside should be moved inside which we did before we left for South Carolina.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 5:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 4:35 pm A marginal risk now for tomorrow has been added from the SPC for strong winds.


day2otlk_1730.gif

I agree with this and we are in November and the winds love to blow across the great lakes and ohio valley. Not a major outbreak but enough those decorative flags my wife has outside should be moved inside which we did before we left for South Carolina.

I remember Kelly Thundercloud who resides in WI as she's always loved the November gales.

I hit 76 today, CVG had 75. Not too shabby for November and about 3-5 degrees shy of a record.

http://hint.fm/wind/

Look at this wind map. I've never seen such a prominent line with the wind blowing into it from both sides.

Got to 75 in CVG and CMH and 74 in DAY on Fri.

Smoker's rolling and the brisket was put on about 8:30. I'll get 3/4's of my cook in I think before it rains since I'm cooking it hot and fast versus low and slow due to weather conditions. Not bad outside right now, but the wind will be cranking soon.

Angelika wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 7:49 pm http://hint.fm/wind/

Look at this wind map. I've never seen such a prominent line with the wind blowing into it from both sides.

I like that wind map. Thanks for reminding me it's in my favorites files.

Line of showers should approach by midday into the early afternoon hours. There is some good shear but no instability and only 100-200 J/KG currently with the front over ILL.