Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:09 am**

I am seeing a bit more agreement towards Thurs now of next week, of a bigger storm system with better rain chances. Nice wind and temp drop behind the front as well showing up. Then we get into NW flow pattern after mid month. So chilly and small rain chances. I am not seeing many above normal days right now.

Posted: **Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:04 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:09 am I am seeing a bit more agreement towards Thurs now of next week, of a bigger storm system with better rain chances. Nice wind and temp drop behind the front as well showing up. Then we get into NW flow pattern after mid month. So chilly and small rain chances. I am not seeing many above normal days right now.

Was starting to notice that the models want to bring some of the tropical moisture that will be in Central American northward. I can see it interacting with the front but how far north will the moisture go before the cold front comes through. Not sold yet on this ideal but I would love to see some rainfall next week

Posted: **Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:16 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:04 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:09 am I am seeing a bit more agreement towards Thurs now of next week, of a bigger storm system with better rain chances. Nice wind and temp drop behind the front as well showing up. Then we get into NW flow pattern after mid month. So chilly and small rain chances. I am not seeing many above normal days right now.
Was starting to notice that the models want to bring some of the tropical moisture that will be in Central American northward. I can see it interacting with the front but how far north will the moisture go before the cold front comes through. Not sold yet on this ideal but I would love to see some rainfall next week

No doubt Tim! We could sure use it after going without for over 2 weeks by that point in time.

The snowpack over Siberia should keep the cold air production coming as these fronts continue to drop south as Rocktober rolls on!

Posted: **Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:22 am**

The leaf color is really popping up here. Nice to see but at the same time I'm wanting some warm weather too.

Posted: **Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:24 am**

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:22 am The leaf color is really popping up here. Nice to see but at the same time I'm wanting some warm weather too.

I see a day or two every now and again as being warm into the 70s, but otherwise, it's going to remain on the chillier side as a whole for the next week or two in my opinion.

Posted: **Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:56 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:24 am
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:22 am The leaf color is really popping up here. Nice to see but at the same time I'm wanting some warm weather too.
I see a day or two every now and again as being warm into the 70s, but otherwise, it's going to remain on the chillier side as a whole for the next week or two in my opinion.

Yeah I figured we have a couple of warm days thrown in here and there. My mind is not wanting to switch to the cooler weather yet.

Posted: **Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:47 pm**

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:56 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:24 am
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:22 am The leaf color is really popping up here. Nice to see but at the same time I'm wanting some warm weather too.
I see a day or two every now and again as being warm into the 70s, but otherwise, it's going to remain on the chillier side as a whole for the next week or two in my opinion.
Yeah I figured we have a couple of warm days thrown in here and there. My mind is not wanting to switch to the cooler weather yet.

Mine always is, you know me!

Posted: **Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:53 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:47 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:56 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:24 am
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:22 am The leaf color is really popping up here. Nice to see but at the same time I'm wanting some warm weather too.
I see a day or two every now and again as being warm into the 70s, but otherwise, it's going to remain on the chillier side as a whole for the next week or two in my opinion.
Yeah I figured we have a couple of warm days thrown in here and there. My mind is not wanting to switch to the cooler weather yet.
Mine always is, you know me!

Mine will be forced to swith in about an hour. Going up to run chains at the High School football game.

I know it won't be that cold. But when the sun goes down I expect it to be about 45-48? by the end of the game.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:01 am**

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:56 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:24 am
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:22 am The leaf color is really popping up here. Nice to see but at the same time I'm wanting some warm weather too.
I see a day or two every now and again as being warm into the 70s, but otherwise, it's going to remain on the chillier side as a whole for the next week or two in my opinion.
Yeah I figured we have a couple of warm days thrown in here and there. My mind is not wanting to switch to the cooler weather yet.

Same here Bro and Trev, too.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:03 am**

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:53 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:47 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:56 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:24 am
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:22 am The leaf color is really popping up here. Nice to see but at the same time I'm wanting some warm weather too.
I see a day or two every now and again as being warm into the 70s, but otherwise, it's going to remain on the chillier side as a whole for the next week or two in my opinion.
Yeah I figured we have a couple of warm days thrown in here and there. My mind is not wanting to switch to the cooler weather yet.
Mine always is, you know me!
Mine will be forced to swith in about an hour. Going up to run chains at the High School football game. I know it won't be that cold. But when the sun goes down I expect it to be about 45-48? by the end of the game.

Did your High School team pick win?

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:07 am**

Good Saturday morning all! As of 7am, CVG has dropped to 37 and I am down to 33 here! 35 at the Boone Co mesonet. Seeing some upper 20s N of town as well. A nice frost this morning for sure and a killing frost for some of you. Same deal tomorrow so the growing season should be over this weekend for most folks! Coldest temp at CVG since late April.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:21 am**

We will of course moderate going into next week with the 70s returning. By Thurs, we are still looking at a strong front with some decent rains showing up, wind and maybe even a t-storm too. The temps of course drop again behind that front. I continue to see the same pattern repeating itself with front after front dropping in keeping the trough around for the next few weeks.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:35 am**

Some temp readings this morning from the boys:

Temps.jpg

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:38 am**

Coldest official obs I could find in our area were Springfield, Urbana, and Washington CH all making it down to 28 degrees!

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:38 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:21 am We will of course moderate going into next week with the 70s returning. By Thurs, we are still looking at a strong front with some decent rains showing up, wind and maybe even a t-storm too. The temps of course drop again behind that front. I continue to see the same pattern repeating itself with front after front dropping in keeping the trough around for the next few weeks.

Good Morning Les and yes this pattern looks to continue for at least another 10-14 days. Once we get a storm to arrive in the northwest USA then we will probably see a pattern change. How stormy will it be in late Oct and Nov for the pacific northwest and also give us clues to how the winter may set up in terms of a negative or positive pna. The more storminess usually leads to a cooling of the waters of the coast so I am rooting for a drier than normal period for that area. Alaska has got stormier but really not that much colder for this time of year. I have no problem with that to continue though we know they will get cold but is it just the average cold of Alaska.The north Atlantic and Pacific have very warm waters and near the coasts as well. I was wondering going into a 3rd year La Nina if the waters in those areas were this warm at this time of year. Not many analogs to work with so I just keep looking at mother nature to see if she is showing her hand.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:39 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:38 am Coldest official obs I could find in our area were Springfield, Urbana, and Washington CH all making it down to 28 degrees!

Pretty much as we expected. My guess on Sunday morning we will see many temps in the low 30's and again several upper 20's likely as it looks to me the winds may not pick up until mid-morning.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:42 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:38 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:21 am We will of course moderate going into next week with the 70s returning. By Thurs, we are still looking at a strong front with some decent rains showing up, wind and maybe even a t-storm too. The temps of course drop again behind that front. I continue to see the same pattern repeating itself with front after front dropping in keeping the trough around for the next few weeks.
Good Morning Les and yes this pattern looks to continue for at least another 10-14 days. Once we get a storm to arrive in the northwest USA then we will probably see a pattern change. How stormy will it be in late Oct and Nov for the pacific northwest and also give us clues to how the winter may set up in terms of a negative or positive pna. The more storminess usually leads to a cooling of the waters of the coast so I am rooting for a drier than normal period for that area. Alaska has got stormier but really not that much colder for this time of year. I have no problem with that to continue though we know they will get cold but is it just the average cold of Alaska.The north Atlantic and Pacific have very warm waters and near the coasts as well. I was wondering going into a 3rd year La Nina if the waters in those areas were this warm at this time of year. Not many analogs to work with so I just keep looking at mother nature to see if she is showing her hand.

Good morning Tim! We get less moisture with a +PNA (unless with have the STJ undercutting it) but the cold will be locked in no doubt. I wish I could answer your question with the warmer SST's in both the NPAC and NATL during a third year Nina (like have we seen this set up before)? I am not sure since we've only had 3 of these triple dip Nina's since 1950. So to that, if you add those warm SST's in the northern oceanic waters, have we seen this before? My guess is gong to be no.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:43 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:39 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:38 am Coldest official obs I could find in our area were Springfield, Urbana, and Washington CH all making it down to 28 degrees!
Pretty much as we expected. My guess on Sunday morning we will see many temps in the low 30's and again several upper 20's likely as it looks to me the winds may not pick up until mid-morning.

I think lows tomorrow morning will be a tad colder then this morning. I think I could get to 32 or lower. Temps should struggle to hit 60 today so after sunset, they will drop very quickly.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:50 am**

32 here. Last time I cut the grass was just before labor day and don't plan on cutti g until the leaves dictate. Water those evergreens deeply or you'll be replacing them in the spring!!!!

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:56 am**

I've been avg. every 2 weeks mowing. Last time was a week ago. Will also be waiting until leaves dictate. Only thing to change that would be to get some rain of course lol

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:52 am**

36 officially at CVG this morning.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:37 am**

Dropped to 32 here - been three weeks since I last mowed.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:07 pm**

Freeze warning for many folks locally. This really makes sense as temps a little cooler than expected today but the dew points are about 6 degrees lower than this time yesterday. So I can see many folks near or slightly below 32 and maybe even the airport. Had some frost on the roofs and car windows this morning but not in the grass area.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 5:31 pm**

Text for the freeze warming that Tim mentioned. High of 58 here today.

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern
Kentucky and Central, South Central and Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

Posted: **Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:38 pm**

Down to 48 here already, same at CVG. Let's see how we do in that 7-8am window tomorrow morning.

Absolute Vorticity

Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion