Absolute Vorticity

I am listening to the news. Seminole County just enacted an executive order stating "no wake" on the roadways. That is usually a body of water thing, not a roadway thing. What an incredible amount of flooding.

Going to be a sad day. Already the sheriff in Lee County where Ft. Myers is located reporting 100's of deaths. Would not be surprised before all is said and done this total is nearing 1000.

Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

In my mind, Ian may go down as the 12th retired I storm. There is just something about that letter.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:10 am In my mind, Ian may go down as the 12th retired I storm. There is just something about that letter.

I was just thinking the same thing. That 9th storm is a nasty one it seems.

Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
WITH IAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

=========

Ian is back over the water now and already back up to 70 mph. Thinking a Cat 1 cane is likely here for the Carolinas and so does the NHC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 28.7N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:59 am Going to be a sad day. Already the sheriff in Lee County where Ft. Myers is located reporting 100's of deaths. Would not be surprised before all is said and done this total is nearing 1000.

Absolutely astounding given the general way advanced notice for prepping in this modern age.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:12 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:56 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:04 am Prayers for my one friend, his wife and children who live in the Cape Coral (on the Colusa Hatchie river) area just southeast of Ft Myers. They decided to not evacuate, My other friend who's been in contact with him since yesterday said that they are really scared.

Hi Joe,

Prayers and thoughts sent up for your friend and his family, bro and for many others in Ian's path.

I have a cousin and her fiance along with his grandparents who reside in Melbourne which is southeast of Orlando.

Thanks Eric, we're still waiting to hear what the impacts (hopefully not much) as the SE portion of the eye wall moves over his area within the hour. Not looking good though!

You're quite welcome, Wxbuddy.

I've been thinking about your friend / his family and many others today in that ravaged state and prayerfully he and his family are okay.

Ian was back to a Cane status with winds of 75 mph as of the 5pm update.

The images and video of the devastation across SW Florida and into central and NE Florida are just completely heart-breaking. I feel so bad for those poor folks. I too have friends in the Ft Myers area but they were wise and evacuated but their home was heavily damaged.

85 mph winds now moving NNE at 9. It has not yet begun to turn back towards the coast. Can it get any stronger, or has it peaked?

Ian is now moving more north at 9 mph. Still holding at 85 mph with a pressure of 984 MB. Satellite shows Ian with a completely exposed southern side. All of the wind and rain is only on the N side of the circulation.

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...HURRICANE IAN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARRIVING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 79.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

85 mph as of 2pm moving N at 15. Pressure is at 977 MB. Ian is making landfall now near Charlestown.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:17 pm The images and video of the devastation across SW Florida and into central and NE Florida are just completely heart-breaking. I feel so bad for those poor folks. I too have friends in the Ft Myers area but they were wise and evacuated but their home was heavily damaged.

Same here, Mike.

Prayers and thoughts with many in Florida and elsewhere in the Southeast.

I've heard 21 dead so far.

80% of both Sanibel Island and Ft Myers e.g. are wiped out.

----

From Fri ...

1627 HOLDEN BEACH BRUNSWICK NC 3391 7830 SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO IN HOLDEN BEACH WITH LOFTED DEBRIS. NO DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS TIME. (ILM)

1736 UNK 4 ESE DALZELL SUMTER SC 3401 8040 REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; POWER POLES BROKEN. (CAE)

We've been going to Ft. Myers Beach for 30 years and were scheduled to go for our anniversary trip in three weeks. I am heartsick over the devastation. I know they will rebuild but it won't be the same. I'm sure many mom-and-pop places won't be able to financially withstand this. Cleanup alone will take months.

View of hurricane Ian clouds in the distance. This is a park by my house.

Ian will be winding down over the NC / VA area today. Rain to Eastern KY / OH. Clouds for us and some wind. That's about it for us locally. Terrible flooding impacts from FL to VA.

Roanoke Rapids, NC where I used to live picked up 2.67" from Ian.

Hey Joe,

Have you heard how your friend and his family fared during Ian?