Absolute Vorticity

There was definitely a lowering per social media pics. Wall cloud evident. But thus far, no confirmation of a circulation reaching the ground.

Still “fancy” to see this time of year. We typically don’t see renegade supercells in this part of the world mid summer. It’s typically popcorn storms, MCS, or bust. The Goshen tornado last month was also pretty wild. First time I remember seeing a stronger tornado mid-summer. Not impossible, but typically reserved for spring time or fall severe season. Pretty wild.

1203 UNK 2 WNW FONTANET VIGO IN 3959 8729 TREES REPORTED DOWN BETWEEN ROSEDALE ROAD AND GALLAGHER ROAD IN NORTHERN VIGO COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

1217 UNK ROACHDALE PUTNAM IN 3985 8680 1600 WITHOUT POWER DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

1235 UNK LEBANON BOONE IN 4005 8647 UP TO 900 WITHOUT POWER DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

1235 UNK LEBANON BOONE IN 4006 8648 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON CAMP STREET NEAR THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. POWERLINES AFFECTED BY TREE DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

1252 UNK 2 NNE INDIANAPOLIS INT'L AIRPORT MARION IN 3975 8628 FIVE HOMES DAMAGED IN HEATHERWOOD ESTATES SUBDIVISION. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ... SOME THROUGH THE ROOFS OF HOMES. NO INJURIES REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

1254 UNK 2 NE ZIONSVILLE BOONE IN 3997 8625 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS A DOWNED TREE IS COMPLETELY BLOCKING US421 AT VALLEY MEADOW DRIVE. POWER IS OUT IN ZIONSVILLE. (IND)

1300 UNK 2 NNW BEECH GROVE MARION IN 3974 8610 TREES REPORTED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF RAYMOND STREET AND SHERMAN DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

1300 UNK 2 S CARMEL HAMILTON IN 3994 8612 EM REPORTS THAT A TREE IS DOWN ON A HOUSE IN CARMEL; LOCAL FIRE AND RESCUE RESPONDING. (IND)

1303 UNK 1 ESE MORSE RESERVOIR HAMILTON IN 4012 8605 LARGE TREE DOWN AT BEAR SLIDE GOLF CLUB IN CICERO. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

1305 UNK 3 NW CARMEL HAMILTON IN 3999 8615 EM REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES DOWN INTO POWER LINES. (IND)

1309 UNK 3 E SOUTHPORT MARION IN 3965 8605 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF SOUTHPORT AND COMBS. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

1313 70 2 NNE FISHERS HAMILTON IN 3999 8601 RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS 70MPH ESTIMATED WIND GUST IN FISHERS. (IND)

1317 60 4 NW FAIRLAND SHELBY IN 3964 8590 TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 60 MPH ESTIMATED WIND GUST AT LONDON ROAD AND I-74. (IND)

1327 UNK 2 ENE COUNTRY CLUB HEIGHTS MADISON IN 4014 8566 EM REPORTS TREES DOWN IN THE AREA OF 200N AND ALEXANDRIA PIKE. SOME TREES DOWN ON HOUSES. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (IND)

2354 UNK 3 NE DARMSTADT VANDERBURGH IN 3812 8753 TREE DOWN AND TOOK DOWN POWER LINES. (PAH)

2355 62 2 S DARMSTADT VANDERBURGH IN 3806 8758 (PAH)

2358 61 2 NW MELODY HILL VANDERBURGH IN 3804 8753 EVANSVILLE AIRPORT ASOS. (PAH)

2359 UNK 4 NW EVANSVILLE VANDERBURGH IN 3803 8759 MPING REPORT: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; SHINGLES BLOWN OFF. (PAH)

0002 68 2 NNW MELODY HILL VANDERBURGH IN 3804 8753 KEVV ASOS. (PAH)

0003 UNK MELODY HILL VANDERBURGH IN 3803 8751 LARGE TREE DOWN AND ACROSS ST GEORGE ROAD ... TAKING OUT A POWER LINE. (PAH)

0004 UNK 1 E EVANSVILLE VANDERBURGH IN 3799 8752 TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD ON N BOEKE RD. (PAH)

0005 UNK 1 W EVANSVILLE VANDERBURGH IN 3798 8756 TREE ACROSS HEIDELBACH AVE. (PAH)

0008 UNK 1 ESE EVANSVILLE VANDERBURGH IN 3798 8752 TREES DOWN NEAR WESSELMAN PARK; ROOF DAMAGE TO NEARBY BUILDING. (PAH)

0008 UNK 1 S MELODY HILL VANDERBURGH IN 3801 8751 MPING REPORT; 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; POWER POLES BROKEN. (PAH)

0015 65 1 SSE EVANSVILLE VANDERBURGH IN 3797 8754 NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN. (PAH)

Good Morning and no more rain for me after the morning round yesterday though the airport got about 1/10. We talked about this yesterday and how sometimes these early morning rains can hamper later development. I believe that was one cause but also I believe these storms were looking for heat and that was to the southwest. Today the folks to the southwest have a better shot of showers and thundershowers though never rule out a pop up storm anywhere with the heat and humidity. Wednesday still looks like the hottest day and may see 90. Thursday and Friday will at least have a weak cold front around which will help keep temps down as showers and thundershowers try and develop. How widespread is something we need to watch and models have not really been good at finding the correct locations for these storms. The weekend may end up rather dry and temps rebound to the upper 80's and maybe a 90 depending on cloud cover. Next cold front next week so Monday and Tuesday look like a repeat of this Thursday and Friday. At this point that cold front looks stronger and could clear the Ohio Valley which is always tough in early August.

Good morning and we are def stuck in a pattern where fronts come in and have a heard time leaving. Hence the flooding in SE KY. These boundaries are stationary and wherever it hits, it hits! With that boundary to our West and SW, Effingham, ILL got 7.5" of rain out of it! We, on the other hand, are getting enough rain to keep things green and not flood which is great!

Agree with Tim for today. 10% chance for most at a storm. 20% SW CWA. Hot and nasty on Wed with the low 90s then our front comes in and hangs around for high rain chances Thurs, and Fri and a decent chance for Sat as well. Still have to keep low POPS in for Sunday and also going into next week too. Active times ahead mainly starting on Thursday folks is the bottom line here.

That boundary is still cranking, look at this:

Picked up another 0.05" yesterday and last night (little cell unexpectedly popped to my west around 9:30 last night which was a surprise!)

Hoping the rain train stays away from the poor folks in SE Kentucky. Those folks need a break, although I don't want to see that type of rains here either!

Seeing reports of up to 14" rain with that persistent band out in Illinois.

Might be tough for CVG to get into the U80s today with the extra clouds thanks to the storms to the west. Dayton and Columbus will probably be warmer then CVG today.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:50 am Seeing reports of up to 14" rain with that persistent band out in Illinois.

Just checked radar and it's still going! My goodness...

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:33 pm While the media is a cesspool of hype on a daily basis, they’re not wrong about the wording on this flooding. Was talking to my buddy at ILN and here’s how he says the weather service makes their calculations:

“ The way I understand it is this... It's a statistical calculation based on observations. So, for a 1 in 1 year flood, there is a 100% chance that it will occur every year. For a 10 in 1 year flood, there is a 10% that it will occur every year. For a 100 in 1 year flood, there is a 1% chance that it will occur every year. For 1 in 1000 year flood, there is a .1% chance that it will occur every year. It most certainly DOES NOT mean a flood of the observed magnitude will only happen once every 1000 years.”

Yeah that makes more sense actually. kind of like a slot machine that has a RNG system . it statisticaly has very high odds to hit a jackpot but realistically based on a random number generator it could actually hit jackpot back to back.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:31 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:33 pm While the media is a cesspool of hype on a daily basis, they’re not wrong about the wording on this flooding. Was talking to my buddy at ILN and here’s how he says the weather service makes their calculations:

“ The way I understand it is this... It's a statistical calculation based on observations. So, for a 1 in 1 year flood, there is a 100% chance that it will occur every year. For a 10 in 1 year flood, there is a 10% that it will occur every year. For a 100 in 1 year flood, there is a 1% chance that it will occur every year. For 1 in 1000 year flood, there is a .1% chance that it will occur every year. It most certainly DOES NOT mean a flood of the observed magnitude will only happen once every 1000 years.”

Yeah that makes more sense actually. kind of like a slot machine that has a RNG system . it statisticaly has very high odds to hit a jackpot but realistically based on a random number generator it could actually hit jackpot back to back.

A perfect example Charles! Thanks for that nice explanation too Trev. Much easier for folks to understand.

Only 80 as of 1pm so a good call on knocking temps down thanks to the debris clouds. 12Z GFS cements my morning post nicely. I have no changes at all at this time to report. Hot and nasty tomorrow L90s, then we get periods of rain and storms Thurs and Fri. 50/50 Sat, 30% Sun, then 50-50 again early next week.

Weekly LaNina (3.4 region) coming in at - .70 , easterlies continue centered on the dateline. Expect at the very least to hold there, but much more likely to get stronger as we enter the heart of Hurricane season. Check out the building Sub-surface anomalies since July. These cooler water temps should continue to surface in the coming months. Would expect region 1,2 to cool more also

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:24 pm Weekly LaNina (3.4 region) coming in at - .70 , easterlies continue centered on the dateline. Expect at the very least to hold there, but much more likely to get stronger as we enter the heart of Hurricane season. Check out the building Sub-surface anomalies since July. These cooler water temps should continue to surface in the coming months. Would expect region 1,2 to cool more also



wkxzteq_anm.gif
WiRIV3J.jpg

Would love to see the Gulf of Alaska continue to warm. Would be closer looking SST wise to 2010-2011 which had the snowiest Dec on record for us. I've also read where the global SST's currently look very close to July 1950. Funny thing is... that hurricane season had not one signal storm until mid Aug. Then it exploded and had 6 major hurricanes occurring and an above avg season resulted with high ACE. I do expect an uptick in tropical activity but not like 1950 did. The 1950-1951 winter was awesome! Everyone remembers the Nov 1950 Great App. Snow Storm too.

We may get a decent chunk of Thurs in as the afternoon only looks like scattered action. Best chance is Thurs night into Fri morning at this time, then again late Friday and overnight. Scattered Sat and isolated Sun are kind of how I am looking at POPS and timing. 12Z Euro coming in now which supports the Thurs / Friday timing ideas. 1.65" at CVG from Thurs thru the weekend. Then more chances as discussed previously for next week.

For tomorrow...

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 103 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central,
Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.

Mid 80s should about do it for today. Still thinking low 90s tomorrow as long as we see a bunch of sunshine which is my current thinking. That ILL band, while still present, has been weakening and finally beginning to give it up. 15 maybe 16" of rain might be the max from this event! Crazy!! St. Louis, East KY, and now South Central and Eastern ILL.

Good Afternoon and not a bad day for early August. Not much in the way of changes to the forecast though the cold front next week looks more impressive each day. Still have plenty of time to watch the front but maybe late next week could we see a day or two around 80 with lower humidity. Love to see that and of course I will be in SC at the time but that would also help drop them into maybe the mid-upper 80's for a day or so.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:08 pm Good Afternoon and not a bad day for early August. Not much in the way of changes to the forecast though the cold front next week looks more impressive each day. Still have plenty of time to watch the front but maybe late next week could we see a day or two around 80 with lower humidity. Love to see that and of course I will be in SC at the time but that would also help drop them into maybe the mid-upper 80's for a day or so.

After 8/10 is still looking nice isn't it? I posted that call a couple of days ago and it still is looking good as we approach mid month for some more refreshing air potentially to move in! Until then, warm, humid, and frequent storm chances is the call.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:25 pm Mid 80s should about do it for today. Still thinking low 90s tomorrow as long as we see a bunch of sunshine which is my current thinking. That ILL band, while still present, has been weakening and finally beginning to give it up. 15 maybe 16" of rain might be the max from this event! Crazy!! St. Louis, East KY, and now South Central and Eastern ILL.

I have an extended family member on Mom's side who resides in Mt Carmel, ILL in the southeast part of the state.

Currently 82 here in G'ville.

Hope they are ok Eric! My relatives in St Charles are good when STL got hit. My other relatives in SE KY are ok thankfully too!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 02, 2022 7:46 pm Hope they are ok Eric! My relatives in St Charles are good when STL got hit. My other relatives in SE KY are ok thankfully too!

Same here Les!

Some relatives of mine in the O'Fallon area near STL are good, too.

I saw earlier today on the Accuweather channel an outline of eastern KY i.e. and a town called Hazard where my folks and I have two friends from over the years who are natives of that area that we knew in Cincy and in Wake Forest, NC, anyway where Hazard for i.e. had a total reading of 8.55"!