Absolute Vorticity

There is a new MD up for our area...

Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022

Areas affected...Parts of western into central Ohio and adjacent
portions of the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 031813Z - 032000Z

CORRECTED TIME FROM UTC TO DAYLIGHT TIME IN SUMMARY

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells may gradually develop across parts of the
middle into upper Ohio Valley through late afternoon. Some of these
may pose a risk of producing tornadoes, in addition to large hail,
including around the Dayton OH area as early as 5-6 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...A southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric speed maximum,
and associated cyclonic vorticity center to its northwest, are in
the process of migrating north-northeast of the Ohio River, toward
the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region. While the boundary
layer across much of Ohio into the upper Ohio Valley is generally
cool and stable, destabilization is ongoing along and northeast of
a warm frontal zone across southwestern Ohio, in the immediate wake
of the initial perturbation.

With the primary upstream mid-level short wave trough turning east
of the middle Mississippi Valley, the warm sector of an associated
surface cyclone appears likely to continue to attempt to spread
northeastward across Ohio. Through 21-22Z, it appears that the warm
frontal zone may become a focus for increasing boundary-layer
destabilization and intensifying thunderstorm development near the
Dayton OH area. This is where latest Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings suggest that at least some backing and strengthening of
flow around 850 mb may contribute to enlarging clockwise curved
hodographs. It appears that the environment may become conducive to
supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes, in addition to
severe hail, with a tendency to gradually develop east-northeastward
into early evening.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/03/2022

TOR Watch issued until 9pm....

...

My son sent me this from his office.

Guys, is this a problem?

Couple of strong clusters of storms moving across the region into NW counties as well as NKY Some small hail and winds to 50 mph are likely with some of these. Close to severe limits, just need 'em to kick it up a notch.

Ang... nice rain shaft and def a very strong storm! Don't see any warnings issued attm, but it's worth keeping an eye on in case one does get issued.

That certainly looks like the beginnings of a wall cloud - where is that photo taken?

79 / 65 now at CVG... looks like a strong storm is moving my way as well.

Only active warning attm:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN
PICKAWAY COUNTIES...

At 254 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ashville,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

Little bit of rotation with the storm just to my south - hearing a lot of thunder. Def has my attention....

I am guessing that is the cell near Harrison, IN. There might be a little rotation but the velocity scan is a bit noisy and it is hard to tell.

Getting thunder now...

Strong cell just moved through Hamilton. Strong wind gusts, heavy rain and some minor hail. Only lasted about 3-4 minutes.

Getting hammered here now - lots of thunder and strong winds.

Decent t-storm in progress... winds gusting to 40 with thunder, lightning, and heavy rain.\\

EDIT: 50+ now easy.... Wow...

Had a brief downpour a few minutes ago. Heavy rain but nothing else involved. Can hear thunder in the distance so that may be the one Les has at the moment.

Wow - easily 50+ mph winds. Had leaves flying by the window and heard small hail hitting the roof. Quick hitter like 4-5 minutes.

Wow... 60 now... can't see outside the rain and wind are so intense! Wind is roaring! Should be a warning for strong winds on this cell.

It's looking N/NW I think, from the Forest Fair Mall exit off 275.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 2:59 pm That certainly looks like the beginnings of a wall cloud - where is that photo taken?

Can someone with SRV check that cell over Boone Co? Any rotation? Thanks!

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
312 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Fairfield County in central Ohio...
Southeastern Licking County in central Ohio...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 312 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Canal
Winchester, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
wind damage to trees and power lines.

Last one - same storm. Look at the color change! 275 at Forest Fair Mall exit.

That cell is by me now... it ended almost as quickly as it began. Will post a rainfall total after work.

Angelika wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 3:16 pm Last one - same storm. Look at the color change! 275 at Forest Fair Mall exit.

Hey, that's my building in the background! I just looked out the NW windows and I see the same thing, looks ominous.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 3:15 pm Can someone with SRV check that cell over Boone Co? Any rotation? Thanks!

Don't see anything obvious but looks like it has at least 50-55 mph winds maybe more.

EDIT - TCVG may have shown a brief couplet between Burlington and Oakbrook