Absolute Vorticity

Snow, rain, t-storms, small hail, graupel... it's all likely today and tomorrow. Have fun all!

38 here currently with mostly cloudy skies. Look for precip of some type to pop over the region once we get a little heating and also with the approach over the upper low. Mainly snow Sat morning ending as a bit of rain later. Might get a car topper in isolated areas, mulch coverer, that would be worst case scenario.

Sunday is nice. Sunny and dry. Shower chance starts Monday, grow a little for Tues with likely Wed and early Thurs. Severe wx is not expected if we have a Thurs AM frontal passage. If it waits until alter Thurs, a different ball game so we'll wait and see there.

Latest radar loop:


Then, after we deal with some milder temps and rain / storms for next week, colder weather and more snow is possible even in late April. It happened last year if you recall, a record 2.5"!!! I don't see that happening but flakes similar to tomorrow mornings event yes, that may happen again folks. My goodness!

From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest satellite imagery indicates the large upper level trough
is moving over the Ohio Valley this morning. The upper level
trough is supplying considerably lower temperatures anomalies
throughout the lower troposphere. The lift associated with the
upper level low, in combination with steepening low-level lapse
rates, supports the development of widespread shower activity
late this morning and through the rest of the near term period.
Mixed phased updrafts will result in charge separation in the
strongest updrafts leading to the potential for lightning.
Additionally, expect small hail and graupel to be present in
most of the showers due to freezing levels below 3kft.

Clouds and shower activity limit daytime high temperatures to
the mid and upper 40s. While not as gusty as Thursday,
occasional wind gusts over 20 mph are possible through the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Shower activity at the onset of the short term may still be
quite numerous. Coverage eventually begins to decrease during
the evening hours and overnight, however, the presence of
showers is still expected. The highest coverage likely stretches
from the low level moisture swath extending southeastward from
Lake Michigan. Thermal profiles cool throughout the overnight,
allowing most of the showers to transition to snow or rain snow
mix. Graupel will also remain a possibility in any enhanced
showers. Light accumulations are to be expected with any heavy
showers that occur overnight.

The surface low is beginning to pull further to east during the
morning hours, however, favorable low level lapse rates and the
presence of a vorticity lobe, lead to additional rounds of
convective showers through the late morning into the early
evening hours. Once again, mixed precipitation is expected with
perhaps more graupel and snow as freezing levels are at their
lowest levels. Can`t rule out a few heavier snow showers during
the afternoon.

Surface temperatures are cooler than Friday, with locations
struggling to warm into the mid 40s.

This would have been nice in February or even early March.

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/04/08/snowta ... update-48/

What fantastic set up! ILN 12Z sounding shows the freezing level only at 1,716 feet! Small hail will be very likely, graupel, etc this afternoon.


Lapse rates are already in the 7 to 7.5C range at both the mid and lower levels. That will increase significantly as time goes on. Going to be a fun afternoon and evening watching various precip types.

I can report a brief graupel shower here in Indian Hill. No rain , just graupel

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 11:37 am I can report a brief graupel shower here in Indian Hill. No rain , just graupel

Nice! Still awaiting to see what happens here. Radar starting to light up with that convective, speckled look to the echoes so the fun should just be starting.

We have some weak SB CAPE of 250 J/kg over the area. Low level lapse rates are very steep at 9.5C Freezing level is very low under 2000 feet. We should get some thunder and / or lightning out of some of these heavier showers with graupel and / or sleet / hail.

Couple of items to note from ILN, an SPS has been issued for graupel and small hail... which Bgoney has already mentioned has occurred.

...SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL POSSIBLE TODAY...

Showers will move through the area today. Small hail or graupel
will be possible with the heavier showers.

Also in the HWO, frost is possible Sun morning.

Freezing temperatures are expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Areas of frost possible.

Another 2 minute graupel shower .

All Hail The Graupel !!!!!

I'm still in watch n wait mode here. Partly sunny skies.

Getting clipped now by a shower... seeing a few drops now. All liquid since this shower is weak. Better returns are coming so I should see some of that graupel love here too shortly.

Rain intensity is picking up, still all liquid.

Per radar, some brighter colors are showing up in the strongest cells, so that is likely graupel. Anyone to the West of Oxford, Hamilton, Forest Park or Crittenden, KY? Some of these areas may experience this shortly. Post if you do.

..FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern
Kentucky and South Central and Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.

I saw some snow earlier this morning. Anyone else?

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 09, 2022 8:08 am I saw some snow earlier this morning. Anyone else?

Had some here. Getting a break at the moment.

snowbo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 09, 2022 9:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 09, 2022 8:08 am I saw some snow earlier this morning. Anyone else?

Had some here. Getting a break at the moment.

Moderate snow at the moment. Big fat flakes!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 09, 2022 8:08 am I saw some snow earlier this morning. Anyone else?

Had some here overnight with some roofs i.e. having a dusting.

Very tiny fine flakes here now.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:53 pm My dad will be going to Anderson, IN tomorrow morning for a 2nd attempt at helping his sis get to a CAT-scan appt in Anderson. The 1st attempt last Fri didn't pan out because my aunt misunderstood directions re discontinuing a certain pain med for her ailing sciatica and hip a few days ahead for the dye-injected scan. Prayerfully 2nd time's a charm! And she's not allowed any food (snack) and even water either after midnight. Please keep her and my dad in your prayers and also for traveling as the forecast for Fri is a yuck-fest esp for April standards!

Currently 43 and going for around 36 Fri morning.

Thankfully my aunt got her scan and that step is now behind her.

Dad had some rain mod to heavy at times in intensity yesterday morning going to her house. At least it was dry though for his return home.

Prayers appreciated for her as she's in quite a lot of pain from the sciatic / disc condition.

Currently a very unApril-like 32 degrees here in G'ville. Progged to top out at around 40 today and then a low of around 29 for Palm Sunday morning.

Saw quite a bit of snow and graupel today. Came down impressive at times. No accum of course. Only 41 for the high imby which is my current temp. FREEZE WARNNG tonight with a gorgeous Sun afternoon upcoming! Gonna mow for the first time here tomorrow afternoon. Rain likely Mon thru Thurs. A dry Friday then more for Easter Weekend. Very active pattern guys! Good luck to all who need to mow.

After that, we turn colder again with rain and yes snow possible the week after Easter, Googly Moogly this pattern is relentless folks.

Low of 29 this morning at CVG, I hit 28. A nice frost this morning but a gorgeous afternoon will be occurring today. ENJOY IT FOLKS! We turn wet for a good chunk of next week. I have no changes. Periods of rain and t-storms expected tomorrow thru about Thurs morning once the front passes. Up to an inch of rain is possible next week. For severe wx prospects, a marginal risk is out for Tues for most of our Western counties and again for Wednesday, a 15% Day 4 outlook for mostly the West. That tells me the bulk of the severe wx stays to our West and we'll have several weakening complexes or lines, moving into our area. Poor frontal timing for us is the cause unless we see that change next week.

I haven’t said thank you to this group recently! So thank you!

I fell and fractured my shoulder in two places. No surgery just 6-8 week recovery. You guys are helping me schedule people to mow my grass! Today is the day.

If you’re the praying type I could use a few. This is not an easy injury to manage.