Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:32 am
12z Nam fits the forecast range pretty well with ice accretion amounts .10"-.25" south to north. Temps hovering /fluctuating in the 30-34 range
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Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
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Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:46 am
12z NAM doesn't have much Thurs morning... 0.05" QPF for frz rain before a touch of ice to rain for the stronger second wave moving in mid afternoon Thursday. Things get cranking in the evening hours with rain for CVG and sleet / frz rain N burbs (even you all eventually change to rain) to I-70.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:59 am
12z GFS similar to Nams temps north of river to I70 , 30-34 range north to south. QPF in the .50-1.00 range
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 11:16 am
Hoping for the best, preparing for the worse. 
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 11:25 am
Temps that are 31 or 32 , it's tough for the rain to accrue on trees or power lines, that's why models aren't that Gung ho on the total accretion for much of the area
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 11:42 am
WSW for my area . i hope its more snow and sleet i dont want any of that ice. its saying 3 tenths inch of ice. other models showing half inch of ice or more.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 11:59 am
30 degrees here and cloudy. We're not going to get very warm today. Upper levels are going to be toasty warm in the 40s and 50s with this system while surface temps are 29-35 area wide for the event.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:26 pm
Sitting at 29 here. Shallow cold air for sure.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:30 pm
Love the report from an airport near Tulsa,OK. Thunderstorm,rain in the area with a temp of 18 degrees
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:30 pm
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:33 pm
Will there be a winter weather advisory issued in the next several hours. My guess is yes but where and what time period will they be talking about if they issue the advisory.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:33 pm
Question: I was supposed to leave Friday morning to go to the UP to play in the snow. I'm thinking that if I see a two hour window on the radar between 4:00 and 5:00 Thursday afternoon to take off and get to Toledo (2+ hour drive) and spend the night there. This should put the ice behind me and I'd only have light snow to drive in through Michigan on Friday. Would appreciate any thoughts on this plan! TIA
Edit: I should add that there's a casino in Toledo so my wife is pulling for this plan!
Edit: I should add that there's a casino in Toledo so my wife is pulling for this plan!
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:54 pm
I agree... best snows will be over southern lower Michigan. Should be all snow thru there. Love the idea too!snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:33 pm Question: I was supposed to leave Friday morning to go to the UP to play in the snow. I'm thinking that if I see a two hour window on the radar between 4:00 and 5:00 Thursday afternoon to take off and get to Toledo (2+ hour drive) and spend the night there. This should put the ice behind me and I'd only have light snow to drive in through Michigan on Friday. Would appreciate any thoughts on this plan! TIA
Edit: I should add that there's a casino in Toledo so my wife is pulling for this plan!
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:06 pm
EU not budging. I don;t know , If it gets in the mid 30s all the way up to lake Michigan like the EU has, I'll do the SNF dance with Trev.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:11 pm
I agree that snow is going to tough even further north. Still believe an ice issue may be the problem from Indy to Toledo.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:20 pm
Correct me if I am wrong but won't these temps between 30-33 today cool the road temps down as well?
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:28 pm
That warm nose is strong... we know that. Just don't know yet know how strong the warm push down to the surface is going to be. Nowcast to be completely honest.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:29 pm
This is good nowcasting and a good observation. Was thinking the same thing on less traveled or rural roads anyway. Your driveway, porch, etc.BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:20 pm Correct me if I am wrong but won't these temps between 30-33 today cool the road temps down as well?
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:56 pm
I see the nws in different areas is slowly issuing winter weather advisories further north and east about every hour. Each time they seem to add a few counties so maybe by 8am on Thursday we will have one in our area lol. My guess the Louisville,Indy and Cincinnati NWS are waiting to the afternoon forecast which is usually done between about 230pm and 430pm each day.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 2:15 pm
I am curious to see if the cooler surface temps today have any baring on what happens late tonight into tomorrow or is the WAA too strong and it doesn't make a difference anyway. Models def busted on highs today without question.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 2:25 pm
Haven't bought the EU surface temps from the get go and those temps into southbend just reaffirm it
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 2:34 pm
Hit the nail on the head. Surface temps are so key and though plenty of warming upstairs does not relate to the surface. I believe the the main thing we get from this is much of the precip will be liquid until later in the storm and that would be mainly folks well north and west of here.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 2:25 pmHaven't bought the EU surface temps from the get go and those temps into southbend just reaffirm it
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 2:59 pm
I don't think it'll be a sleet fest. Too much warming at 850 so it's def going to be frz rain as the dominant precip type for folks north and west of Cincinnati as mentioned where surface temps are 30 or below especially.
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 3:00 pm
18Z NAM initialing well with temps and it's been the coolest model overall. Might be doing the best with this system? We'll see, can't say that yet. 
Re: Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 3:05 pm
Who's been watching the radar? That blob of snow out to the west definitely is not what the models showed for the first wave.