Absolute Vorticity

12Z Canadian - Lot of sleet for the Metro and esp NKY N of the heavy ice area. Northern Cincy burbs and NW counties IND DAY and CMH, a nice thumping of snow.

Pretty consistent with the past few runs.

I don't wish ill will on anyone, but I am praying the canadian is correct.

So far the models are holding steady. Sleet is still one I believe models overproduce unless the low pressure is really strong and that looks not to be the case. So does the sleet end up being heavy snow or heavy rain depending where you live. The one thing we know is this will be 2 pieces of energy and maybe 3 depending on how everything sets up and the 3 pieces of energy would probably affect the southeast areas. Tons of moisture as the GOM is really open for business. Lucky this is not a system that only produced one low pressure like some of the models showed a few days ago because we could of had flooding issues.

Worst part with the CMC is with its bias for cold , that would put the worst of the ice right over cvgland

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:58 am Worst part with the CMC is with its bias for cold , that would put the worst of the ice right over cvgland

Bingo.

Numerous timing differences and degrees of amperage from the GEFS. IMO I am seeing a weaker first system and a beefier second system. Lots of rainers and crippling icers for the area/

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:58 am Worst part with the CMC is with its bias for cold , that would put the worst of the ice right over cvgland

Great post and knowing the bias of each model does help in trying to forecast. Gfs is one that tends to move systems along to fast only to correct within about 48 hours of a storm.

10:1 Ratio - 12Z UKIE - Would have to imagine some of this snow is sleet but it's the furtherest south of all models. It has been for many systems all winter long and it's never been right.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:00 pm Numerous timing differences and degrees of amperage from the GEFS. IMO I am seeing a weaker first system and a beefier second system. Lots of rainers and crippling icers for the area/

To your point Les is if the second wave gets stronger then sleet becomes more of an issue. Not sure yet on the strength of each wave and that is another weather headache for us to figure out.

Les the Ukie tends to have runs like the Euro which has been furthest south with the upcoming waves.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:04 pm Les the Ukie tends to have runs like the Euro which has been furthest south with the upcoming waves.

I hope the Euro holds course with the snowier idea. Reality says, ice is in our future though. Maybe even rain. Some of those GEFS members are cranked up! If you can remain all snow I can see a 12-18" with isolated 20" being possible somewhere across the region. I wish it was here though.

We always talk about where the cold sort of came from and is it from Canada,the pacific ocean which is mild or do we get a cross polar shot. This shot of cold does look to originate in Siberia so yes its cold and more dense and that is why we are seeing the possible ice storm. This kind of cold undercuts the storms and gets the cold down to the surface quickly though it can take a little longer in the higher places which yes keeps some of the precip in liquid form.

Classic overrunning... moist SW flow aloft about 5,000 feet up with NE flow at the surface to keep the cold locked in. Classic heavy QPF event, long duration too. Gonna be a lot of fun in the coming days tracking this. Euro coming up soon! Then WHO DEY!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:02 pm 10:1 Ratio - 12Z UKIE - Would have to imagine some of this snow is sleet but it's the furtherest south of all models. It has been for many systems all winter long and it's never been right.


sn10_acc.us_ov.png

2015 happening all over again!!!

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:02 pm 10:1 Ratio - 12Z UKIE - Would have to imagine some of this snow is sleet but it's the furtherest south of all models. It has been for many systems all winter long and it's never been right.


sn10_acc.us_ov.png

2015 happening all over again!!!

I would DIE if it shifted that far south, OMG.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:18 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:02 pm 10:1 Ratio - 12Z UKIE - Would have to imagine some of this snow is sleet but it's the furtherest south of all models. It has been for many systems all winter long and it's never been right.


sn10_acc.us_ov.png

2015 happening all over again!!!

I would DIE if it shifted that far south, OMG.

if that happens you and I are gonna play hookie and drive down to CB Country to watch it! Deal?

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:26 pm 2015 happening all over again!!!


I would DIE if it shifted that far south, OMG.

if that happens you and I are gonna play hookie and drive down to CB Country to watch it! Deal?

Gonna have too.

This is going to be such a fun month of winter storm tracking and big dog potential not just for next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:34 pm This is going to be such a fun month of winter storm tracking and big dog potential not just for next week.

Agreed. February is a seasonal transition month that can — and usually does — yield some wild weather around these parts. Let’s go.

12Z Euro has initialized...

I live in Middletown now (built a house there).

Can you tell me which of the area forecasts I should look at to get closes to my neighborhood? Is it DAY as opposed to CVG?

Thanks!

Out to 48 hours... looks similar to 0Z. Heights are similar, maybe a tick weaker and a tick south with the low over S NM / W TX.

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 1:05 pm I live in Middletown now (built a house there).

Can you tell me which of the area forecasts I should look at to get closes to my neighborhood? Is it DAY as opposed to CVG?

Thanks!

We can post text data for HAO - Butler Co Regional Airport. That will cover you. Oh, and welcome back to the OV, Casie!

I think the Euro maybe correcting north this run. Might be an icy one like GFS and CMC, we'll see in a few more panels.