Absolute Vorticity

Well now...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:10 pm Showers to the north of the river just entering SW Indiana needs to hold together for our chance with the forecast

The northern most solutions showed that developing and moving NE and expanding with coverage to the south as the cold air catches up later on this evening. I like the temp contrast that we're seeing with this system.

anyone have afternoon EURO maps?

Not good for southern Ohio.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:55 pm Not good for southern Ohio.

real bad run

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:29 pmWell now...

It gave CVG 0.02" which is better then it has been... ZERO.

FGX

Well, real-time observations and comparing to previous model out put, that had the front through cvg around noon , has not happened, and the moisture in SW indiana is a bit more north than modeled, SO FAR, good nowcast news for the moment

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:31 pm Well, real-time observations and comparing to previous model out put, that had the front through cvg around noon , has not happened, and the moisture in SW indiana is a bit more north than modeled, SO FAR, good nowcast news for the moment

I agree for the moment. Those dense cold air masses can be a pain and they stop for awhile and then boom get their act together and move quickly. Such a timing issue but agree early on I like what is happening.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:31 pm Well, real-time observations and comparing to previous model out put, that had the front through cvg around noon , has not happened, and the moisture in SW indiana is a bit more north than modeled, SO FAR, good nowcast news for the moment

I had a feeling this would have a small chance to come north. Heights are higher then modeled over us. Temps got a lot warmer too and the front is slower then advertised. All positives as you mentioned. Radar def looks healthier to me then what was modeled for this time of the day.

SPC meso page showing some nice frontogenic forcing esp to the SW over S ILL where that precip continues to blossom and head up the river towards us.

I think will now in about an hour , how that slug of moisture just west of Louisville proceeds. Does it continue NE or take on a more east northeast axis

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:57 pm I think will now in about an hour , how that slug of moisture just west of Louisville proceeds. Does it continue NE or take on a more east northeast axis

Agree and do we see the first wave of in Kentucky slide to the south of us and then a push of cold air that meets up with the rain in Tn. If that happens we could miss everything but once again folks in the Lexington area and points southeast could do well.

Signs of a nice system... severe t-storm watches are out for LA and MS.

Did anyone notice a new WWA going up for SW Indiana? Is that a sign of more winter precipitation on the northern side than the models were showing?

weatherbeast45107 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:50 pm Did anyone notice a new WWA going up for SW Indiana? Is that a sign of more winter precipitation on the northern side than the models were showing?

My guess we will see this on the northern end of the current advisories because ice could be a problem with flash freezes. Many times these kind of advisories come out to little to late imo.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:58 pm

weatherbeast45107 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:50 pm Did anyone notice a new WWA going up for SW Indiana? Is that a sign of more winter precipitation on the northern side than the models were showing?

My guess we will see this on the northern end of the current advisories because ice could be a problem with flash freezes. Many times these kind of advisories come out to little to late imo.

We'll see... IMO the precip is more north then modeled so it is possible. Def need to nowcast this over the next few hours to see how this plays out.

From the boys - They didn't spend much time with it today:

Mid level energy is streaming rain towards southern CWA this
late day and evening. Combined with a frontal passage this early
evening, any rain will rapidly change to snow. A northwestern
extent this rain and/or snow will be found with little to no
precipitation expected along and northwest of a line extending
from Batesville to Xenia to Columbus. A winter weather advisory
has been hoisted and remains in effect for far southern CWA,
with a sharp gradient expected where a dusting to less than an
inch of snow is found, running along a sw-ne line crossing
through the southern suburbs of Cincinnati and Chillicothe.

Temperatures ahead of the front are remaining in the lower to
middle 40s and will likely linger warmer than what the forecast
has, even in the immediate short term. Once winds shift
northwest, expect readings to quickly drop through the 30s, and
this early evening will see the changeover to snow for the tri-
state, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky.

Overnight lows were dropped lower than guidance and were
generally fairly uniform near 15 degrees given advection and the
deeper snow pack found over southern Ohio and northern Kentucky.

Temp drop has begun here. High of 52, down to 48. CVG 49 as of the 4pm reading.

I am still very much interested in this system. So far most peoples forecasts on here look just fine. We're in that watching and waiting mode to see how the precip lines up with the cold air that is beginning to move in.

Here’s what channel 5 thinks.

SPC Mesopage Talk: PWATS are good: 0.5" N Cincy burbs. 0.6" Metro / CVG Land and 0.7" SE crew so it's not like the atmosphere is totally dry or anything. Nice moisture transport at 850 and 925 MB into the TN Valley. Rain / snow line looks to be running thru Central / South Central IN per critical thicknesses. 32 degree line for surface temps. is NW of IND. We're saturated at 700 MB over the entire area. Nice 700 MB frontogensis to the SW of the local area. We'll wait and see. I like what I see and we'll let the chips fall where they may with this thing.

What is our current surface temp.? I can't find my link . Thanks

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:35 pm 5AEE5E5C-1E34-4A78-9B61-94DDA2EBAEA3.jpeg

Here’s what channel 5 thinks.

Good luck Lisa! It's been looking encouraging really since this morning and more so this afternoon. Models are not handling this system well at all in terms of precip coverage, temps,. and timing of the frontal boundary which has already moved thru our hoods.