Absolute Vorticity

Even DAY gets 4" on that run!

Great run even for CVG - 0.47" QPF And a bit more to come before it totally wraps up. Wow., very nice TROWAL.. love that deform band. But can the low get up into Eastern TN then take it's good ole sweet time doing the transfer?

Still the outlier - won't get super pumped unless GFS and esp the Euro are on board.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:46 pm Still the outlier - won't get super pumped unless GFS and esp the Euro are on board.

Absolutely agree... Could be the NAM on steroids as usual. But at least the solution is believable. Just cannot forecast it without further support.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:48 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:46 pm Still the outlier - won't get super pumped unless GFS and esp the Euro are on board.

Absolutely agree... Could be the NAM on steroids as usual. But at least the solution is believable. Just cannot forecast it without further support.

Les that is a great post and the solution is believable but I agree a little more support would help.

15Z SREF at CVG - LOL at the weenie members!

It's so frustrating to see the snow going to central and eastern Ky., while in Northern Ky. we get the shaft.

allowat3 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:16 pm It's so frustrating to see the snow going to central and eastern Ky., while in Northern Ky. we get the shaft.

I hear ya Mark! The dogs will have to wait again to howl.

18zgfs is a swing and a miss. Hopefully tonight we will know out fate. Would love to see the 18z Nam be correct hahaha

18z GFS Snowfall (Kuchera)

12Z GFS - 0,31" QPF at CVG
18Z GFS for CVG - 0.07"

All 18Z GEFS members giving CVG maybe some flurries. No accumulation really to speak of CVG on North and West.

The dogs are going with 1-3 for my neck of the woods, with less to the north and more to the south.

jlcarey1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:37 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:45 am Major ice potential in the typical cold wedge zone of NE Georgia, western South Carolina up through the Piedmont of North Carolina.

This is what I'm looking forward to! Living in Charlotte, NC now and we never see any good action. Very rarely. So I'm excited to see how this turns out!

Good luck with this storm!

I have some friends in Cornelius, Gastonia, Raleigh, Roanoke Rapids, and Wake Forest.

Sister and her family reside in Roanoke Rapids (near VA border and along the I-95 corridor).

Also some friends in SC.

Good Evening and going to fun over the next few days. Very simple with the nam compared to the gfs on the last run. The nam is expecting the upper system to be stronger than the surface system. This is true when they meet late Friday or early Saturday. If those two meet up quickly then no doubt the system will be pulled further north and west. If they stay apart and the surface system just moves along the gulf coast then we see how strong the system gets moving up east of the apps. I made a forecast earlier and no since changing every model run so around the I-275 area 1-2 northwest and 2-4 southeast. Southeast Ohio and Northeast Kentucky 4-8 inches and little towards Indy. I did state that if the 2 systems get together earlier we could see some additional overnight Saturday and earlier Sunday. Yes this should be one for the shovel as it will be a heavy wet snow and those kind of accumulations locally are easy to remove. Once you get over the 4 inch mark it makes it somewhat tougher.

Looks like my nephew, his fiancee / her family, and their friends will get dumped on again there in Nashville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:48 pm Looks like my nephew, his fiancee / her family, and their friends will get dumped on again there in Nashville.

I got a feeling they may get some snow but I am expecting some big time mixing issues in that area that could extend into southeast Kentucky.

18Z Euro giving CVG 0.21" of QPF so there's that, 12Z run only had 0.08".

SPC meso page tonight shows a 1024 MB low coming in on the Westcoast with our low that came thru today bringing in a few sprinkles has given up and transferred all its energy to the ocean low which is now getting its act together. Low off the NC Coast is 1008 MB. Let's see how strong she gets. Move baby move, don't deepen!

Got very quiet

NAM looks similar to the earlier run today IMO, hits us a little less but still better than the other models.

Nam has very sharp cut off

This storm definitely has gotten interesting the closer it gets to hitting❄❄❄❄

We have no problem getting hit when it's rain but when it snows we hear about sharp cut offs what a time to be alive