December 2021 Weather Discussion

All weather related things can be found here! From snow storms to severe weather including the best model analysis and long range forecasting around!
User avatar
cloudy72
Tropical Depression
Posts: 2167
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:22 am
Location: Miamisburg, OH

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by cloudy72 »

Don't want to see this....especially on Christmas Day. Many of these areas are recovering from the Dec 10-11 outbreak.

SVR.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH

The KING of the domes! :king:

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

cloudy72 wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:18 am Don't want to see this....especially on Christmas Day. Many of these areas are recovering from the Dec 10-11 outbreak.


SVR.png
Flooding may also be an issue for parts of the OV even if severe wx does not occur. We need the cold to take control to avoid issues like this. Just isn't happening for another 10 days.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6419
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. :( We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

MVWxObserver wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. :( We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.
Prayers to your Dad Bro! Hope you and your Mom don't get it.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6419
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

tron777 wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:21 am
MVWxObserver wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. :( We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.
Prayers to your Dad Bro! Hope you and your Mom don't get it.
Thank you Bro!
Eric

Greenville, OH
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6169
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

MVWxObserver wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. :( We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.
Eric, plenty of prayers for your family.
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6169
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

Looking at the models this morning and still have the afternoon ones coming in but the trend which we know is a friend is starting to see the colder air winning out later next week. The tropical areas settling down helps and with the AO negative its only a matter of time the colder air will win out. We still have the southeast ridge which is usually around but it also seems to losing some of its grip. Of course before we get there how much rainfall will the area get. Hopefully its spread out over 2-3 systems and different areas get hit. The ground is not frozen so it can still soak in some which is good.
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6419
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

tpweather wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:31 am
MVWxObserver wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. :( We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.
Eric, plenty of prayers for your family.
Thank you, Tim

Guys, in my original post I had said the word transfusion, I meant infusion. ;)

Monoclonal antibody treatment
Last edited by MVWxObserver on Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
cloudy72
Tropical Depression
Posts: 2167
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:22 am
Location: Miamisburg, OH

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by cloudy72 »

MVWxObserver wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. :( We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.
Sorry to hear, Eric. Will def be in my prayers.

Up to 30 degrees here in my hood.
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH

The KING of the domes! :king:

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6419
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

cloudy72 wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:41 am
MVWxObserver wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. :( We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.
Sorry to hear, Eric. Will def be in my prayers.

Up to 30 degrees here in my hood.
Thank you, Mike
Eric

Greenville, OH
snowbo
EF0 Tornado
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:45 am
Location: Brookville, Ohio

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by snowbo »

Keep the faith Eric...prayers to you guys!
Brookville, Ohio
Northwest Montgomery county
I70 Corridor
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Euro bringing in a quarter inch of rain on Christmas Day at CVG.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

More rain and mild wx for next week of course. Euro has strong storms now possible on NYE with low to mid 60 degree temps and dews in the U50s to perhaps even the L60s. :lol:
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4347
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

Yea , the EU is ugly. We new the Arctic air would finally reach the northern plains and NW but not much further through Dec. and that is still the case . I really don't like that at the end it shows the pAc ridge retrograding which we said was an option, resulting in more delays,, hopefully that changes in the coming days
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:23 pm Yea , the EU is ugly. We new the Arctic air would finally reach the northern plains and NW but not much further through Dec. and that is still the case . I really don't like that at the end it shows the pAc ridge retrograding which we said was an option, resulting in more delays,, hopefully that changes in the coming days
I hope I'm not being generous... but I am delaying the cold until the 1/3 to 1/5 time frame at this point.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
cloudy72
Tropical Depression
Posts: 2167
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:22 am
Location: Miamisburg, OH

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by cloudy72 »

tron777 wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:58 pm Euro has strong storms now possible on NYE with low to mid 60 degree temps and dews in the U50s to perhaps even the L60s. :lol:
GFS says so as well.....check out the forecast sounding - CVG on New Year's Eve


gfs_2021122212_216_KCVG.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH

The KING of the domes! :king:

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

cloudy72 wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:58 pm
tron777 wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:58 pm Euro has strong storms now possible on NYE with low to mid 60 degree temps and dews in the U50s to perhaps even the L60s. :lol:
GFS says so as well.....check out the forecast sounding - CVG on New Year's Eve



gfs_2021122212_216_KCVG.png
If we can't get snow, may as well go with the thunder. :lol: Can do without a west KY thing though. But some noise would be alright.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
cloudy72
Tropical Depression
Posts: 2167
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:22 am
Location: Miamisburg, OH

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by cloudy72 »

Prob has already been discussed on here, but man o man the models are absolutely crushing the Sierra and Cascades out west from now until New Years. Euro has over 200" in the Sierra! :ugeek:
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH

The KING of the domes! :king:

Image
dce
EF5 Tornado
Posts: 913
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:45 pm
Location: Huber Heights

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by dce »

tron777 wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:36 pm
Bgoney wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:23 pm Yea , the EU is ugly. We new the Arctic air would finally reach the northern plains and NW but not much further through Dec. and that is still the case . I really don't like that at the end it shows the pAc ridge retrograding which we said was an option, resulting in more delays,, hopefully that changes in the coming days
I hope I'm not being generous... but I am delaying the cold until the 1/3 to 1/5 time frame at this point.
That's what we have seemed to do for years now with these warm Decembers. Delay, delay, delay. Lol! Bastardi made a great case for an early start to winter. His analogs looked as if they where almost a can't fail, but we all know that doesn't always work out in real weather. We've seen this movie before. Not looking good for cold and snow. We can always see a dramatic flip. It's way too early to cancel winter. I haven't checked any of other WX sites for the Midwest, but I can just imagine what the Chicago folks are saying. Some of them are probably about to jump off the cliff. Lol! This very warm December pretty much seals the deal on another warmer than average winter. That, obviously, doesn't mean we can't still get snow to satisfy all the starving snow lovers on this forum, but I'm at the point I'm just going to enjoy whatever weather comes along. I used to get worked up about winters like this, but the older I get the less it bothers me.
Doug

Huber Heights
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

12Z EPS is all -PNA thru Day 10 (NYD) Just can't catch a break.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Both ridges are strong.. need one of them to weaken or we won't see any changes in the pattern.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

66 is the record at CVG on 12/25 from 1893. We've got a shot should the rain hold off a bit later.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4347
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

816702188_full12zepsrun.thumb.gif.a46507a9e9f90dbd466b7ef9f76ea3be.gif
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

That just looks like crap. Yeah I can see the SE ridge losing a little bit of its grip there in early January, but still a gradient pattern and mixing risks are high. Need a weak low to the south for overrunning. Any strong low is going to cut.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22861
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Decemba To Rememba :extinguish:

Torch.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
Post Reply