December 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Merry Torchmas from the 12Z Euro. Highs in the mid 60s Christmas Day at CVG. Ugh... The record is 66 from 1893. Yikes... Christmas Eve record is safe, 70 from 1964.

[tron777]

12Z GEPS continues to show the same idea, we flip the switch come January. -PNA / SE Ridge until then. That's pretty much the vibe I am seeing over the last day or two.

[tron777]

The front has passed... I peaked at 57, now down to 52 with a breezy W wind. Rainfall total now up to 0.51" at CVG, 0.57" here. Light rain will be ending shortly in the Tri-state as the last bad works thru the area as temps continue to fall.

[Bgoney]

Merry Torchmas from the 12Z Euro. Highs in the mid 60s Christmas Day at CVG. Ugh... The record is 66 from 1893. Yikes... Christmas Eve record is safe, 70 from 1964.

With DPs near 60 to the river and off the charts shear in the days just after the heat miser leaves our presents under the tree

[tron777]

SE ridge starts to get beaten down by Day 10 on the 12Z EPS. Perfect... def in agreement with the rest of the guidance today. Just hope we see these trends continue. All Three Ensembles are in agreement come January. Just need to get this into the medium range, which is basically this time next week then we can absolutely believe it.

EPS.png

[tron777]

Merry Torchmas from the 12Z Euro. Highs in the mid 60s Christmas Day at CVG. Ugh... The record is 66 from 1893. Yikes... Christmas Eve record is safe, 70 from 1964.

With DPs near 60 to the river and off the charts shear in the days just after the heat miser leaves our presents under the tree

Pretty crazy! A day for the kids to enjoy the outdoors playing with the toys Santa brought them while the adults drink.

[tron777]

46 now... looks like I'll close out this event with 0.58". As a whole, myself and models way over did the rainfall amounts on this one.

[young pup]

12Z OP GFS today has not much change to the overall look of the pattern until next year, but boy oh boy what a change it is showing to kick off next year! Finally... the Pacific changes (if correct) to a -EPO +PNA -NAO -AO pattern as arctic air invades the country including us. The trough retrogrades to the west over the Aleutians to NE of Hawaii which pumps up heights along the entire West Coast of North America and into Alaska. Over the top blocking is still present and very strong which means it should have some staying power. A classic Phase 8 MJO look if this is correct. Hopefully in about a weeks time we continue to see this look showing up on guidance to increase confidence more. For now, we watch and wait as usual. Until then mainly rain systems thru the end of the year showing up on this run.

Give it 12 hours and it will change.

6 hours then the Happy Hour GFS will be out.

[young pup]

Have had an absolutely wonderful time with my sister, bil, niece, and nephew for a combo early Christmas celebration and my folks' 60th anniversary! Yesterday evening we all had a celebration for my folks at the Old Richmond Inn in Richmond, Indiana. First time to eat there and a great place to celebrate special occasions esp. I had a grilled pork chop w/ apricot glaze, some pea pods, twice-baked cheesy mashed potatoes, onion shoots, tossed salad, garlic crab meat stuffed mushrooms appetizer, a roll, and water.

Please say a little prayer for my nephew and sister, bil, and niece as they head home today. Nephew Jared is going to Nashville, TN where he just recently moved to a house earlier this week with 3 new friends, new to him at least, from his fiancee Madison "Madi's" church. His friends are Matthew, Mark, and John and so Jared has dubbed the place the Gospel House. Jared said they should get a dog and name him Luke. Somewhat later this afternoon my sister Retha, bil Mike, and niece Janae will start heading out to NC and they'll split up their trip staying overnight tonight in WV.

Currently 41 here in Greenville.

Congrats on your parents for 60 years of marriage. Hopefully a safe trip for all as I hate driving in this kind of weather.

Thank you very much, JP!

Yes, my nephew is kind of nervous and with the additional weather factor, makes it more tiresome. Esp in the big city bottlenecks like Cincy and LOU on his route.

I agree. Sleepiness is my biggest issue.

[cloudy72]

Down to 36 here and storm total of 0.55”

[MVWxObserver]

My nephew made it safely back to Nashville and had supper with his future wife and inlaws. My sister, bil, and niece made it safely to their Charleston, WV hotel as they'll be heading the rest of the way home to NC on Sun.

My gauge picked up a combo half inch for Fri / Sat and since Thurs a combo of .80"

[Bgoney]

No changes from EPS overnight concerning the next 10 days . Western ridge/trough continues to ruel the entire lower 48. For snow lovers , plenty of pain to go before potential gain.

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[tron777]

Good morning all! 32 for the low here and at CVG this morning. Most of the talk is long range right now since the short term is quiet with seasonal temps. We warm up for Christmas Eve into the 50s and the 60s for Christmas Day. A top 5 warmest Christmas ever is likely. A few rain showers as well are possible for the Christmas period.

We continue to be in transition mode for the week between Christmas and New Year's with snow pack building to our West and North and mainly rain makers here. However come the New Year, we still look to have a colder pattern coming with snow chances too. We've got 10-14 more days of pain to go.

Nice to see the EPS come January trying to build a more neutral PNA perhaps even weakly positive? A very nice look if it holds. All Ensembles continue to by and large agree that winter is coming in about 10-14 days. Please, please hold!

[tron777]

Chicago broke their record the other day for the latest measurable snow. ORD has had a T of snow 11 times but nothing yet to measure. Per the NWS in Jackson, KY, they are also watching for their record to be potentially broken. I am thankful we have at least received 0.6" for the season, as terrible as that sounds.

[Bgoney]

Cvg sitting at number 2 for the warmest Dec mean with 13 days left to get to number 1

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[tron777]

Cvg sitting at number 2 for the warmest Dec mean with 13 days left to get to number 1

Screenshot_20211219-103840_Chrome.jpg

With the pattern expected thru just about the end of the year, we've got a shot at it too unfortunately.

[MVWxObserver]

I suppose for Dec there is a positive flip-side with re to no frozen-variety precip for us here in the lower OV. Money saving on DOT salt and mix and also with shortages of DOT plow drivers, NEVER thought we'd see worker shortages, but unfortunately with the current enabling administration of non-stop stimulus checks.

But even this not a huge snow lover would like to see flakes flying in earnest and so as those like Bgoney, Les, and Tim have been mentioning, prayerfully and hopefully by New Year's weekend and into January finally Old Man Winter will be awakened in our part of the country and start cranking it UP.

[tron777]

Euro has a mild and wet Christmas to New Year's period. Will the MJO make it to 8 or keep it in 7 ? Too much -PNA.

[Bgoney]

Euro has a mild and wet Christmas to New Year's period. Will the MJO make it to 8 or keep it in 7 ? Too much -PNA.

I give it a 50/50 chance atm. looking at SSTs , with those cold anomalies at and near the dateline , you can't help but wonder once the MJO goes through 7 and reaches the pearly gates of 8 , once it reaches the cold waters it could fizzle out

ssta.daily.current.png

[tron777]

Euro has a mild and wet Christmas to New Year's period. Will the MJO make it to 8 or keep it in 7 ? Too much -PNA.

I give it a 50/50 chance atm. looking at SSTs , with those cold anomalies at and near the dateline , you can't help but wonder once the MJO goes through 7 and reaches the pearly gates of 8 , once it reaches the cold waters it could fizzle out


ssta.daily.current.png

One trend I don't like it the continued rushing of the MJO wave. It is moving again as there is convection in the West Pacific again so hope it doesn't form until anything tropical. -PNA being over modeled as a result and it very deep. Mod Nina again like a strong Nina. 2007-2008 like even though I keep seeing 84-85 analogs. So far that analog is close and we'll see how that 8 week period goes this year.

[tron777]

2007-2008 Like:

EPS.png

[tron777]

Severe blocking does beat the ridge down completely if correct. Would like to see those features a bit more east (Aleutian ridge, would like it more into AK) But anyway, mixing risks like snow to rain or rain to snow. Ice too are all possible in January with this pattern. Force those features to the east a bit and I think a nice clipper pattern develops. That's what we need MJO phase 8 and it may stay in 7 longer though we'll see.

EPS2.png

[Bgoney]

Severe blocking does beat the ridge down completely if correct. Would like to see those features a bit more east (Aleutian ridge, would like it more into AK) But anyway, mixing risks like snow to rain or rain to snow. Ice too are all possible in January with this pattern. Force those features to the east a bit and I think a nice clipper pattern develops. That's what we need MJO phase 8 and it may stay in 7 longer though we'll see.


EPS2.png

That look should at.least get us to normal temps , which I would take at this point

[airwolf76]

dont buy into the hype of any significant changes at day 10 or 2weeks out. remember the MJo was suppose to favor us and go into a good phase 4 weeks back and never happened . im taking it 1 week at a time and this coming week is a snooze fest . i been saying last week of month though, but my half inch of snow for both Nov and Dec may actually stand at this point. one thing you can always watch is when you see it cold and snowy in the pacific northwest states, it will not be in your area. the NW has been getting an early winter for a while just like 2 years ago, this is a repeat. a better pattern was around the corner that never came, we have a 2019 redux.

[Bgoney]

dont buy into the hype of any significant changes at day 10 or 2weeks out. remember the MJo was suppose to favor us and go into a good phase 4 weeks back and never happened . im taking it 1 week at a time and this coming week is a snooze fest . i been saying last week of month though, but my half inch of snow for both Nov and Dec may actually stand at this point. one thing you can always watch is when you see it cold and snowy in the pacific northwest states, it will not be in your area. the NW has been getting an early winter for a while just like 2 years ago, this is a repeat. a better pattern was around the corner that never came, we have a 2019 redux.

Charles , good to hear from you. We got You beat by a tenth in the snow dept. Lol.
No hype in here, (at least we try),we know a lot needs to get rearranged at 500mb for January to start off in a better place. The hype comes from the big boys on the web who want to be the first to predict snowmageddon. I think we're as cautiously optimistic as winter lovers can be especially in the long range