Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:52 pm
Hopefully we can say bye-bye to freezing Temps (CVG) after this weekend until the fall.
I believe we have one more round of 32 or below. What has happen over the past few weeks is a very strong PV for March. This of course has kept the cold in the arctic regions and they have been below normal in terms of temps. With tons of storminess over the next few weeks I believe one of those systems will be strong enough where we tap some of that really cold air and may be just enough to give us that last round of freezing temps. The southern 2/3rds of Canada has been average or above in terms of temps so this does happen this time of year with a stronger than normal PV.
I think it'll be close, but end of March or early April probably has that last shot at it, then it's probably over for sub freezing temps. Not a frost but temps below 32. We'll see... you just never know sometimes around here.
My low was 31 degrees and I am about 3 miles or so S of CVG. CVG bottomed out at 38. I am a bit lower in elevation then CVG is just to prove Mike's point about the ridge / valley inversion. Ridgetops were warmer overnight versus the valley locations where the cold air was able to sink due to it being more dense. Warmer air is lighter so it rises. Pretty cool event actually that we sometimes see around here. This happens way more frequently in mountainous locations though.
Get ready folks for another beauty! Already up to 50 degrees imby and I'd say 65-67 is doable for most locations. I am going with another beautiful day on Monday before more clouds and low rain chances come in Tues and Wed. Chances for rain on these two days IMO is low with less then a tenth of an inch expected thru the period. Thursday still looks to be the wettest day next week. That continues into Thurs night perhaps lingering into Friday morning before it's over. Up to an inch of rain is possible at this early stage in the game. As far as severe wx is concerned... still a bit early to know for sure. Something we'll be watching of course as the days progress next week once models hone in on the timing a little better of the cold front as well as the track of the actual surface low.
12Z Euro is coming in... small rain chance Tues and Wed like we've talked about. A round of rain / storms Thurs morning with the warm front then we await until late Thurs / Thurs evening for a strong line of storms to come thru with the cold front. Euro has a powerful low 980s MB tracking from STL thru North Central ILL and eventually into NW IN by Fri morning. If this solution is correct, severe wx would be an issue even for us. Euro has some surface based instability not quite to a 1000 J/kg and dews are almost up to 60 degrees. This situation bears watching of course and we'll know more in the days to come. Just throwing it out there for discussion.
Good Monday morning to you all! Another beauty before shower chances return. Still watching Thursday for heavy rain and possible strong storms. The action ends Fri morning with a cooler weekend in store. Another system passes thru on Sunday.
In terms of severe wx on Thursday, the foreign models continue to show a further west and a stronger low pressure system. If the flatter or weaker and SE version of the GFS is right then no severe wx would be expected for us. Let the model battle continue. SPC currently has a 15% risk area out for Day 4 in the Dixie states. That will be expanded northward if the foreign models are correct.
I didn't get a chance to check my station this morning. 46 at the Boone Co mesonet site, which is 3 miles S of me. CVG is 3 miles N of me and are at 45 degrees now. So we don't seem to have the inversion here that we did yesterday morning.
Wow I hadn't been on the forum since our big snows last month. Big changes! LOL Chris Bailey's post about a 977 low over central IL later this week got my attention so now I'm back.
nkyoutdoors wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:01 am
Wow I hadn't been on the forum since our big snows last month. Big changes! LOL Chris Bailey's post about a 977 low over central IL later this week got my attention so now I'm back.
Welcome back, Kris! The old site crashed and we've been back since the end of Feb on our new site. Hope you like it! The last couple of Euro runs have shown a bigger low so the severe wx chance is there, if the Euro is correct. If the weaker GFS wins out then the sever threat won't occur.
Low rain chances tomorrow and Wed with Thurs / Thurs night still looking like our best chance for rain and t-storms. GFS continues to be a heavy rain maker while the Euro has the stronger low solution still tracking to our NW which would present a risk of stronger t-storms. We watch and wait.
Oh... and finally, the GFS V16 is now operational today and has replaced the GFS that we have been using. The upgrade occurred with today's 12Z run. Info below:
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:52 pm
I hit 71 today... CVG topped out at 70 degrees.
Low rain chances tomorrow and Wed with Thurs / Thurs night still looking like our best chance for rain and t-storms. GFS continues to be a heavy rain maker while the Euro has the stronger low solution still tracking to our NW which would present a risk of stronger t-storms. We watch and wait.
EU is on its own atm with its much stronger low and dramatically different severe prospects. Will this be the umpteenth time the EU is wrong with the strength of a low. ?
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
