Severe Weather Threat [Dec 10-11 2021]

[tron777]

Eric.. STL Metro is going to get rocked I'm afraid. Another PDS warning in AR for that same cell:

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

* Until 745 PM CST.

* At 706 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
was located near Bay, moving northeast at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

I'm sure they will issue a watch for our hoods in a few more hours. No doubt about it. Gonna be a long night! Nothing severe yet, but I don't think it'll be long. Numerous individual cells over West KY and Western IN. That concerns me.

[tron777]

Doppler12.png

[tron777]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
728 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Southeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...
Western Dyer County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Lake County in western Tennessee...

* Until 815 PM CST.

* At 728 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
was located over Leachville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

[tron777]

NWS LOU updated their AFD about 7:50p, which was before the TOR watch was issued for their area until 3am EST.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
750 PM EST Fri Dec 10 2021

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 750 PM EST Fri Dec 10 2021

Tornado Watch #554 has been issued for the western two-thirds of our
CWA until 3 AM EST. Scattered pre-frontal convection has already
developed across the lower Ohio/Mississippi River confluence and
will quickly race northeastward into our western CWA within the next
hour. The VAD wind profiler data from VWX/HOP radars have shown
increasing low level wind shear resulting in very strong helicity in
the lowest 1 km (resulting in >400 m2/s2). Model soundings along our
far western CWA do show a bit of an inversion and farther east
toward the I-65 corridor we are seeing that inversion show up on
AMDAR soundings. RAP soundings over the next few hours show dew
points slowly increasing west of I-65, which may be enough to allow
those storms to become surface based when they move into the CWA.

Do want to convey that we expect another Watch will be needed
farther east in our CWA for the pre-dawn and around sunrise time
frame, but that will likely come at a later time tonight.

[tron777]

SPC Meso page has a 994 MB low over Western MO which will continue to deepen and move into Northern ILL tonight and into the Great Lakes later on. Looking at some of the latest model data now... 0Z HRRR is in and not much change really guys from what we've been already talking about as far as the timing goes. We watch and wait... that's about all we can do right now. Keep your weather radios on and your cell phones charged. Make sure you have a way to receive warnings and you'll be fine.

[MVWxObserver]

Prayers with my nephew Jared and his fiancee Madison as she and her folks reside in Nashville, TN and he'll be moving in this weekend into an apt where 3 friends of his are residing there in the country music city. For all their safety during this set up, too.

[Bgoney]

Craighead County AR, twins

FGSgbD3WUAIGltx.jpeg

[tron777]

Pretty much the status quo from the 21Z SREF also in terms of the significant TOR ingredient percentages I posted on earlier.

[Bgoney]

Possible watch incoming for Indy area to just west of ILN domain

[tron777]

Craighead County AR, twins


FGSgbD3WUAIGltx.jpeg

Wow! Crazy for December! In the spring time... sure I get it. But in December? I am just so impressed by this event already and it's only just begun.

[tpweather]

Craighead County AR, twins


FGSgbD3WUAIGltx.jpeg

That is one wild scene.

[tron777]

TOR warning for the STL Metro now. It might get awfully close to the NWS office there.

[tron777]

New watch box for ILL and Western IN until 3am EST.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0557.html

[tron777]

If I am counting correctly... 16 TOR warnings out now. We've got 2 of them in West KY in the Paducah CWA.

[tron777]

Sorry guys, I am wrong. One of them is for Ohio Co KY in the LOU area.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
748 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  OHIO COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 845 PM CST.

* AT 748 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
  WAS LOCATED NEAR LIVERMORE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HARTFORD AROUND 805 PM CST.

I can't keep up lol

[tron777]

A current look at all of the TOR watches issued to our West.

TORWatches.png

[airwolf76]

Hard to believe this is happening this time of year. praying for the people can make it through the night.

[tron777]

Thank God this is to the East of where my relatives are in St. Charles, MO:


ILC013-083-MOC183-189-110215-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-211211T0215Z/
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
801 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...SOUTHWESTERN JERSEY...NORTH CENTRAL ST.
CHARLES AND ST. LOUIS COUNTIES...

AT 800 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MARYLAND HEIGHTS,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

[tron777]

Hard to believe this is happening this time of year. praying for the people can make it through the night.

Hey Charles, thanks! Gonna be a long night for us in the OV.

[Bgoney]

Warned cell SW of Louisville headed NE

[tron777]

59 / 56 at CVG as of 9pm. I've got about the same here. We've got TOR emergencies now in West TN and S ILL. Look at this monster... WOW!

[tron777]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
810 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MADRID COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CST.

* AT 809 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
  WAS LOCATED OVER HAYTI, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS 
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE 
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, 
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE 
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MADRID COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT, A LARGE, EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE, TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN
A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[tron777]

Video sent into the NWS in Memphis of when the TOR crossed I-55. Watch the lightning flashes. Googly Moogly!