December 2021 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and we talked about the calm in November for us but what we are seeing in December is no doubt the clash of cold and warm air in the much of the NH. Three really strong storms with one being in Alaska, the current system in the eastern half of the USA and also a very strong storm near the British Isles. That is quite a bit of energy working its way around the globe. Unusual may be a strong word here as this has happened in the past but the strength of all three are a little surprising. That is why next week and how you have touted a nice warm up looks more and more likely and could be a warm up at first with very little precip which does not always happen in December. Mother Nature balancing things out as usual and at the moment she may need to put in for some overtime work.

[tron777]

Wow... it is pounding rain out there right now with very strong winds! Probably some 30-40 mph gusts with driving rain right now behind the front.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and we talked about the calm in November for us but what we are seeing in December is no doubt the clash of cold and warm air in the much of the NH. Three really strong storms with one being in Alaska, the current system in the eastern half of the USA and also a very strong storm near the British Isles. That is quite a bit of energy working its way around the globe. Unusual may be a strong word here as this has happened in the past but the strength of all three are a little surprising. That is why next week and how you have touted a nice warm up looks more and more likely and could be a warm up at first with very little precip which does not always happen in December. Mother Nature balancing things out as usual and at the moment she may need to put in for some overtime work.

Good morning Tim... I agree. I like your idea of the "calm before the storm" so to speak. We look to have a week of mild and dry weather before (I hope LOL) a change to colder and stormier conditions as we approach Christmas. That is my current expectation as of now. Long range data supports both outcomes of what we are thinking as well as the warmth continuing. Since it is only 12/6, that is certainly to be expected this far out in time.

[tpweather]

Wow... it is pounding rain out there right now with very strong winds! Probably some 30-40 mph gusts with driving rain right now behind the front.

Same here Les and that 4a-9a period is key with these events as Indy where the front moved through earlier will end up with about 1/3 of an inch but near and south of the river the timing has no doubt worked out for heavier rains. We talked about this last week and if this front was not progressive we would have been dealing with rainfall amounts over 2 inches easily but glad we are seeing the front progress nicely.

[Bgoney]

Up to 1.6" when I left the house with a heavy batch Still to come. I expect to reach the 2" mark imby. Difficult drive in , went through a 10 minute patch of blinding rain, road fog and throw glaring lights, give me a snow covered road any day of the week to that

[tpweather]

Up to 1.6" when I left the house with a heavy batch Still to come. I expect to reach the 2" mark imby. Difficult drive in , went through a 10 minute patch of blinding rain, road fog and throw glaring lights, give me a snow covered road any day of the week to that

That is wild and I know last week I mentioned heavy rain fall but I knocked it down to around an inch because of the speed of the system. Should have known though when you see the NWS throw out chances for severe weather in early December that its usually a good sign around here that heavy rain is the most likely outcome. Sure we can see some lightning and hear a little thunder but 99p/c of the time its heavy rains that occur. Of course the winds are nice with some really decent gusts out there and expect that to continue through the day but a much colder wind on its way.

[tron777]

Up to 1.6" when I left the house with a heavy batch Still to come. I expect to reach the 2" mark imby. Difficult drive in , went through a 10 minute patch of blinding rain, road fog and throw glaring lights, give me a snow covered road any day of the week to that

That is wild and I know last week I mentioned heavy rain fall but I knocked it down to around an inch because of the speed of the system. Should have known though when you see the NWS throw out chances for severe weather in early December that its usually a good sign around here that heavy rain is the most likely outcome. Sure we can see some lightning and hear a little thunder but 99p/c of the time its heavy rains that occur. Of course the winds are nice with some really decent gusts out there and expect that to continue through the day but a much colder wind on its way.

3-5" of rain fell in a corridor from Northern Ripely co, N Dearborn Co into SW Ohio North of downtown. No model I saw showed any rainfall amounts to be that heavy. There was a training line of t-storms overnight, some strong to locally severe that was the cause.

[tron777]

Down to 43 at CVG now... the temp drop has begun!

[cloudy72]

42 here - the training storms mostly stayed to my south but I did get to see the lightning show out the upstairs window! I’ll take my 1.23”

[tron777]

1.08" at CVG as of 8am and just over an inch here as well.

[young pup]

Put the rain gauge away for the year. From what I saw around the area being reported I will say I got 1 to 1.5 inches. Saw 2 inch amounts in my area. I maybe underestimating that. I know it poured as it woke me up. Still light rain and the temp is starting it's free fall.

[cloudy72]

Saw this post from Joe Bastardi on Twitter - “ Winter is in the hands of the MJO and EPO. They are in the opposite phases (6, positive) for cold now, but once to later Dec into Jan flip to opposite Would link up perfectly to stratwarm and splitting of vortex occurring now, Huge potential IMO for 20-30 days severe winter wx”

[tron777]

Saw this post from Joe Bastardi on Twitter - “ Winter is in the hands of the MJO and EPO. They are in the opposite phases (6, positive) for cold now, but once to later Dec into Jan flip to opposite Would link up perfectly to stratwarm and splitting of vortex occurring now, Huge potential IMO for 20-30 days severe winter wx”

The usual hype train from JB. I agree with that first sentence anyway and that's about it. We have no idea yet what's going to happen this far away. My guess of a possible change after 12/20 is as good as anyone else's right now until we see how far east that MJO wave gets. As Bgoney has mentioned numerous times, models have been very wrong with moving the waves too far to the east. Hopefully this go around they will be right, but we don't yet know.

EDIT: Currently, the GEFS and Euro MJO model forecasts keep it moving into Phase 7 after mid month and they have lost the looping back into 6 idea. That is at least some good news I would think, but again just too early to call.

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

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Glad to see the coldest anomalies are in the Eastern ENSO regions. That is good news in my opinion.

[Bgoney]

Saw this post from Joe Bastardi on Twitter - “ Winter is in the hands of the MJO and EPO. They are in the opposite phases (6, positive) for cold now, but once to later Dec into Jan flip to opposite Would link up perfectly to stratwarm and splitting of vortex occurring now, Huge potential IMO for 20-30 days severe winter wx”

The usual hype train from JB. I agree with that first sentence anyway and that's about it. We have no idea yet what's going to happen this far away. My guess of a possible change after 12/20 is as good as anyone else's right now until we see how far east that MJO wave gets. As Bgoney has mentioned numerous times, models have been very wrong with moving the waves too far to the east. Hopefully this go around they will be right, but we don't yet know.

EDIT: Currently, the GEFS and Euro MJO model forecasts keep it moving into Phase 7 after mid month and they have lost the looping back into 6 idea. That is at least some good news I would think, but again just too early to call.

Got nothing wrong with his first sentence either, except he's at least 2 weeks behind what we've been saying,lol

[tron777]

I checked Kyle MacRitchie's Experimental MJO model again today and all 4 ensemble members have it going into 7 for the last 10 days of Dec and then into 8 by New Year's. Please, please, please be right.

[tron777]

12Z NAM looks to be getting a clue for the light snow event coming up. 0.16" for CVG QPF wise. 0.12" for DAY and 0.10" for CMH. That's more like it! Or... maybe we all just got NAM'ed!

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up a half inch.

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville.

[tron777]

12Z GFS QPF for the light snow event... CVG - 0.13" DAY - 0.09" CMH - 0.07"

[airwolf76]

I checked Kyle MacRitchie's Experimental MJO model again today and all 4 ensemble members have it going into 7 for the last 10 days of Dec and then into 8 by New Year's. Please, please, please be right.

still have at least a couple weeks of outside stuff i want to get done, if winter can hold off till end of month i would be thrilled!

[MVWxObserver]

Thee are a few dud's in there but a couple of them went on to have great winters. 93-94 and 13-14 are prime examples of good pattern flips. But at the same time, there is an equal chance that we never flip and the entire winter is a dud. Hopefully we'll get the flip this go around. We have been on a bad run of Decembers though. 2010 was the last good one we had.

I remember the 13-14 one well as that was the first winter for my folks and I after having moved to Greenville. It sleeted Thurs evening that my folks went to a hospital in Kettering in early Dec for Dad to have a hip replacement. He had surgery on a Fri and then it snowed Fri night. G'ville got a good dumping (I forget now how much fell) and I dug out Sat morning and then that afternoon went with a cousin, his wife, and an aunt, and uncle to go and visit Dad. He's been doing great with that hip and hasn't, thankfully, had any issues with his natural hip.

[MVWxObserver]

Quick post on the long range... I'm going with a boring and mild pattern if not a torch for Dec 13-20th. Then as we approach Christmas, does the pattern change come in time for Christmas - New Year's period or do we continue to roast? We will continue to talk about those prospects as we get closer but there is no doubt in my mind... we've got a solid week of very warm weather coming up.

I know it'll be a boring and mild period that week, bro, but good travel weather for those like my sister, bil, niece, and nephew as they'll be coming to G'ville for an early Christmas celebration. Sis, bil, and niece will be arriving Tues 12/14 and nephew who is moving to Nashville, TN a few days before, will arrive Thurs 12/16. Then they'll be heading out on Sat 12/18.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM looks to be getting a clue for the light snow event coming up. 0.16" for CVG QPF wise. 0.12" for DAY and 0.10" for CMH. That's more like it! Or... maybe we all just got NAM'ed!

Timing once again will come into play as this little piece of energy moves through that area. Still love the 4a-9a period for an increase in precip and this is even more pronounced in the spring but it really happens all year. Take anything we can get and love to try out my new snow blower aka broom

[MVWxObserver]

Up to 1.6" when I left the house with a heavy batch Still to come. I expect to reach the 2" mark imby. Difficult drive in , went through a 10 minute patch of blinding rain, road fog and throw glaring lights, give me a snow covered road any day of the week to that

That is wild and I know last week I mentioned heavy rain fall but I knocked it down to around an inch because of the speed of the system. Should have known though when you see the NWS throw out chances for severe weather in early December that its usually a good sign around here that heavy rain is the most likely outcome. Sure we can see some lightning and hear a little thunder but 99p/c of the time its heavy rains that occur. Of course the winds are nice with some really decent gusts out there and expect that to continue through the day but a much colder wind on its way.

3-5" of rain fell in a corridor from Northern Ripely co, N Dearborn Co into SW Ohio North of downtown. No model I saw showed any rainfall amounts to be that heavy. There was a training line of t-storms overnight, some strong to locally severe that was the cause.

Nellie Matt and his family live in Hidden Valley. Has he joined AV since the transition to the new site?