December 2021 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Great Post Bgoney. I like to see it moving and if it gets too strong that can slow down the progress.

[tron777]

Great Post Bgoney. I like to see it moving and if it gets too strong that can slow down the progress.

Agreed... it's weak but its moving thank goodness. We'll see folks... its going to be a while but we've got time for things to change in time for the Christmas Season since it's only 12/4 today. I still am on board for a little teaser next week before we go very warm again.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Will look at the models later today but just trying to figure things out on how I see the pattern shaping up over the next 10 days or so. My main player is still the system heading into Alaska. I have seen this play out over the years and it just sends the cold air into western and central Canada where its already cold and then with the jet moving south along with a very stormy pattern we will see some cold air next week. Will the cold and precip meet up to help in produce snow. Not sure how many systems will be involved during the next week and again so much into timing as these systems will be moving fast so getting a bigger storm besides the strong front early Monday it may be late next weekend. Waiting to look at models later today and see if I see anything that makes sense to my thoughts. Starting later Sunday this forum this be very busy and my guess their will be some surprises before all is said and done.

[tron777]

Good afternoon Tim... working on getting the Christmas Tree put up, but a quick post here. OP GFS has rain to snow for next weekends system which is a colder look then what we've been seeing for sure. I still see no sustained cold or anything like that but slowly but surely, things are getting a little bit better. Baby steps...

[Bgoney]

Powerful storm inbound for western Alaska. Red-ish colors show winds at gale force or higher at 3am AKST Sunday. This will bring widespread blizzards and significantly impact sea ice in the eastern Bering Sea. Noaa

FFxmsJIUcAARdIr.jpeg

[tron777]

I'm jealous lol

Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Including Nome, White Mountain, and Golovin
116 PM AKST Sat Dec 4 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible. Damage to power lines is possible.
Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Southern Seward Peninsula Coast.

* WHEN...9 PM today to 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 65 mph will
cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
drifting of the snow is likely.

[Bgoney]

I'm jealous lol

Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Including Nome, White Mountain, and Golovin
116 PM AKST Sat Dec 4 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible. Damage to power lines is possible.
Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Southern Seward Peninsula Coast.

* WHEN...9 PM today to 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 65 mph will
cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
drifting of the snow is likely.

Hope all those "off the grid" rookie wannabees have their diesel generators in order.

[Bgoney]

Another descent day today other than the winds picking up throughout as the warm front t moves through. Highs will reach near 60 cvgland probably after dark. Showers anytime after dusk. Tomorrows high will be at midnight mid 50s ish , but during g the day will be holding in low/mid 30s with biting wind chills. Tues /wed light event still unfolding. How much energy stays intact rounding the trough and or splitting (affecting moisture plume)remains in questiin ,And how much moisture can it produce?

[tron777]

Good morning all! Bgoney has the next couple of days covered nicely so I'll move on to my favorite part. Snow! Unfortunately, whatever we do see will melt but at least late Tues night / Wed morning has a chance to look festive anyway. The latest NAM model which goes out to 1pm Wed has nothing for CVG. The GFS gives us 0.17" for QPF. The Euro has 0.03". CMC has very little and the UKMET doesn't have anything like the NAM. GEFS Mean has around an inch of snow being possible so it does support the OP GFS with regards to moisture. Obviously, way to early to make any sort of call but that's what we've got data wise to work with this morning.

Then, we spike up into the 60s by next weekend with more rain then falling temps after the cold frontal passage on Sat. That is the GFS's solution. The Euro is still running colder with this system showing a wintry mix to snow (best snows just East of Cincy) as we get an Apps runner instead of a cutter. GEFS and EPS support more of a cutter look so the Euro is kind of on its own at this time with the more wintry idea. Lots for us to keep an eye on for sure. No sustained cold or big snow storms yet are on the table but as always... I'm watching!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and changes are a coming and pressure difference is big across the midwest as my wife gets cases of vertigo when this happens and she is no doubt having a case this morning. I was even a little dizzy so yes nice little change coming and that usually means a big wind increase which should happen tonight and Monday. The late Tuesday and Wednesday chances are there but no phase and moisture available is limited so like Les mentioned it could look festive for a few hours which is always nice. Next weekend and again the GFS and Euro are on different pages. Going with the hot hand and that is the Euro as the gfs is always trying to catch up. Later Thursday as warm air will try and move this way need to watch to see if we have any precip as models are almost always late to the game on that pattern. Friday we could see temps back above 50 and my guess rain will come later that night or early Saturday. This looks like a decent system and can this bring us some accumulating snow. Way to early but I believe at the moment we have a shot later Saturday or Sunday. May end up being a nice northeast storm. I agree a nice warm up the week of Dec 13th but imo that is short-lived as many signs the cold is coming in time for Christmas. Tons of cold air and in regards to normal this side of the planet is much below normal compared to Siberia. Cold air is dense and it will drain southward over time. We have had brief moments of the southeast ridge this fall but for the most part has not been an issue. May see that the week of Dec 13th but not expecting a long term problem.

[tron777]

This is looking more promising should it come to pass of course with regards to a colder pattern possibly coming in as we approach Christmas.

[tpweather]

This is looking more promising should it come to pass of course with regards to a colder pattern possibly coming in as we approach Christmas.

ans

Good Morning Les and this is of course a very important issue. The word Transitory has been used in the economy this year and that word can go so many ways. What do we mean about the word and how long is a transitory period. That goes with blocking of the weather as well and yes we can get cold into the USA without blocking but to keep it a longer period we need the blocking to the north of us. So do we get periods of blocking this winter which last 5-7 days or a several week period.

[tron777]

It's too early for us to answer that question Tim as you know. If we can somehow muster up a good last 10 days of Dec and first 10 days of January (before the usual January thaw kicks in), I'd consider it a monster win!

[MVWxObserver]

----

[Bgoney]

The promising MJO forecast looks nice , but given recent model failures in their progression of its eastward motion in that they are almost always to aggressive. Its another we'll see deal.. Probably some kind of bias. Hopefully they are more in tune with the upcoming weeks

[tron777]

For Tues night and Wed light snow event, the 12Z NAM had 0.02" for QPF which is an improvement from zero I guess. 12Z GFS is coming in now giving us 0.08" of QPF. Mainly from Cincy and points south. The phasing doesn't start to occur until the low is already by us. Decent for the mountains of East KY and WVA most likely for a few inches. In this awful pattern, I'm just considering it a win to even see some flakes.

[tron777]

The promising MJO forecast looks nice , but given recent model failures in their progression of its eastward motion in that they are almost always to aggressive. Its another we'll see deal.. Probably some kind of bias. Hopefully they are more in tune with the upcoming weeks

Models have been too strong with the amplitude as well as the phase. As of 12/3, the Aussies have it in Phase 6 and fairly strong compared to what we've been seeing. So this go around attm anyway it is stronger then what we've been seeing and it is on the move at this time. Question is... will it stay that way and continue to move into the West Pac, or will it crap out as it's done in the past? The last time this was expected to occur, tropical cyclones developed in the West Pac and killed the MJO wave's energy.

rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

Current look at the West Pac:

abpwsair.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

Glad and thankful our winds won't be nearly extreme, so to say, as is forecast in parts of the Dakotas and Wyoming i.e. They're forecast for gusts up to 60 mph at times!

My folks and I have a neighbor across the street whose family members helped her yesterday set up her outdoor inflatable Christmas decor display.

We have a JOY display in our front yard with lights.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has rain and a front moving thru next Sat and we do not get the secondary low development on this run. After that we torch for a while.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS Mean showing a 1/2" of snow possible on Wed for the West and an inch to the East. 2"+ for the Mountains and Eastern KY and WVA.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS has rain and a front moving thru next Sat and we do not get the secondary low development on this run. After that we torch for a while.

Funny Les and just looked at the gfs and it matches my thoughts through the whole week except we disagree next weekend. Again I believe the gfs is playing catch up once again and it seems to have corrected itself for much of this week. Lets see the Euro and Cmc and what they show for the week but I do expect a somewhat different outcome for them concerning next weekend.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has rain and a front moving thru next Sat and we do not get the secondary low development on this run. After that we torch for a while.

Funny Les and just looked at the gfs and it matches my thoughts through the whole week except we disagree next weekend. Again I believe the gfs is playing catch up once again and it seems to have corrected itself for much of this week. Lets see the Euro and Cmc and what they show for the week but I do expect a somewhat different outcome for them concerning next weekend.

Euro has been the coldest for sure but the EPS has not supported that solution. CMC just got an upgrade and so far it's solutions have also been warm. Waiting on the 12Z run, it's only out to 102 attm.

[Bgoney]

For Tues night and Wed light snow event, the 12Z NAM had 0.02" for QPF which is an improvement from zero I guess. 12Z GFS is coming in now giving us 0.08" of QPF. Mainly from Cincy and points south. The phasing doesn't start to occur until the low is already by us. Decent for the mountains of East KY and WVA most likely for a few inches. In this awful pattern, I'm just considering it a win to even see some flakes.

Agree , rather have flurries flying , than a miserable mix or plain rain. More of holiday Inspiration

[tpweather]

The promising MJO forecast looks nice , but given recent model failures in their progression of its eastward motion in that they are almost always to aggressive. Its another we'll see deal.. Probably some kind of bias. Hopefully they are more in tune with the upcoming weeks

Models have been too strong with the amplitude as well as the phase. As of 12/3, the Aussies have it in Phase 6 and fairly strong compared to what we've been seeing. So this go around attm anyway it is stronger then what we've been seeing and it is on the move at this time. Question is... will it stay that way and continue to move into the West Pac, or will it crap out as it's done in the past? The last time this was expected to occur, tropical cyclones developed in the West Pac and killed the MJO wave's energy.


rmm.phase.Last40days.gif


Current look at the West Pac:


abpwsair.jpg

I only use the Aussie's on the mjo. Over the years far and away the best in regards to their modelling of the mjo.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS looking wet and not white for next Sat. 12Z CMC has the multi low idea but it's all rain . A much slower solution as well, just no cold air to work with at all.