November 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

If you watch Brian's video, there is one item of interest but it's way early in the game. Do we see a phased system around Thanksgiving night into Black Friday which would give us a shot at some rain or snow. Or, non-phased which means a weak strung out system with nothing really to talk about. Euro phases things too quickly so it's rain for us. GFS is better for snow. CMC has the non-phased idea. GEFS members are all over the place as you would expect from this distance. Very low confidence forecast post Thanksgiving at this time.

[young pup]

Monday looks cold. Hopefully it won't be windy too.

[tron777]

Monday looks cold. Hopefully it won't be windy too.

Yeah... we won't get out of the 30s on Monday. On Tues, we may tickle 40 or so down here, but you guys may stay in the 30s again to the north.

[Bgoney]

Monday looks cold. Hopefully it won't be windy too.

Yeah... we won't get out of the 30s on Monday. On Tues, we may tickle 40 or so down here, but you guys may stay in the 30s again to the north.

Nearly everyone I put up Christmas decorations wants it done before Thanksgiving, yea burr

[tron777]

Monday looks cold. Hopefully it won't be windy too.

Yeah... we won't get out of the 30s on Monday. On Tues, we may tickle 40 or so down here, but you guys may stay in the 30s again to the north.

Nearly everyone I put up Christmas decorations wants it done before Thanksgiving, yea burr

Usually that is a smart idea. This year not so much. Back in October would have been better.

[young pup]

Monday looks cold. Hopefully it won't be windy too.

Yeah... we won't get out of the 30s on Monday. On Tues, we may tickle 40 or so down here, but you guys may stay in the 30s again to the north.

Nearly everyone I put up Christmas decorations wants it done before Thanksgiving, yea burr

Les, Oh boy. It feels like it is in the 30's now with the wind blowing. Take a warm up break in the truck.

Bgoney, good luck with that. Hope you get it all done.

[tron777]

Monday looks cold. Hopefully it won't be windy too.

Yeah... we won't get out of the 30s on Monday. On Tues, we may tickle 40 or so down here, but you guys may stay in the 30s again to the north.

Nearly everyone I put up Christmas decorations wants it done before Thanksgiving, yea burr

Les, Oh boy. It feels like it is in the 30's now with the wind blowing. Take a warm up break in the truck.

Bgoney, good luck with that. Hope you get it all done.

I bet JP! The wind has been brutal but normal this time of year. Those wind chills Fri morning and again early next week will probably be in the teens! Stay warm my friend.

[tron777]

Good afternoon all... again sorry for the lack of posts. I'm just so busy everyday working now I just don't have the time like I used to. If I wanted to I could work OT 24 / 7 but hell... I give 110% every single day for 8 hours a day. I'm burnt out. Like all industries, ours is hurting for workers.

Anyway... on to the weather and 45 here currently and that's pretty much going to be the high of the day. Not much change to the short term forecast. You already know what to expect. Cold and dry tomorrow and also dry on Sat with temps back towards 50. Rain comes in on Sunday then we drop again behind that system. I know a lot of media outlets are going dry on Monday but I think if the track of the system is good and we get the right flow off of Lake Michigan, then some snow flurries are going to be possible in cyclonic flow behind that storm. Cold and blustery with highs only in the 30s. Wind chills in the teens and 20s. Dry Tues but cold. 30s north, 40ish to the south. We mod Wed into Thanksgiving into the 40s maybe 50 (We'll see) but confidence in what happens Thanksgiving, Black Friday and beyond is low. We might see some rain sneak in Thanksgiving Day in the afternoon, but that's as far as I'll go for now until we get closer and models sort it all out. Do we see a phased system and if so, when? That will determine the outcome for Black Friday.

[young pup]

Monday looks cold. Hopefully it won't be windy too.

Yeah... we won't get out of the 30s on Monday. On Tues, we may tickle 40 or so down here, but you guys may stay in the 30s again to the north.

Nearly everyone I put up Christmas decorations wants it done before Thanksgiving, yea burr

Les, Oh boy. It feels like it is in the 30's now with the wind blowing. Take a warm up break in the truck.

Bgoney, good luck with that. Hope you get it all done.

I bet JP! The wind has been brutal but normal this time of year. Those wind chills Fri morning and again early next week will probably be in the teens! Stay warm my friend.

Teens? I might just have to stay in bed.

[Bgoney]

Record breaking cold in Alaska this week with Negative teens and twenties and their frigid cold looks to continue for at least 10 -14days

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .30" from last night.

Currently 39 here in G'ville and progged for around 25 Fri morning.

[tron777]

Record breaking cold in Alaska this week with Negative teens and twenties and their frigid cold looks to continue for at least 10 -14days

There's the +EPO for you.

[tron777]

Per the NWS in Fairbanks, AK: Utqiaġvik (Barrow) has entered polar night! The sun set at 1:37PM, and will not rise again until January 22nd, 2022. That is 65 days away!

[young pup]

Got some flurries/snow showers on going here.

[tron777]

Good morning all! TGIF! Mid to upper 20s out there this morning. 25 here this morning, 28 at CVG. Sunny but cold today in the low 40s. Decent on Sat, wet on Sun then cold with perhaps some snow flurries to kick off next week. Still watching the Thanksgiving / Black Fri period and beyond for storm evolution.

[tron777]

For the period after Thanksgiving... GFS is still progressive. The CMC has a snow storm. The Euro phases it too early so a rain maker. From an Ensemble perspective, GEFS members favor more of the bigger storm idea as well. Some favor the CMC others favor the Euro. EPS Mean looks to favor the OP Euro. So I think we are starting to see a trend with the bigger storm idea here but does the timing of the phase occur too early or just right? We'll have to wait and see on that. It's all about the timing of the cut off low when it ejects from the SW US and can it phase correctly with the northern piece coming down from Canada. A lot of the time, we usually get screwed on these phasing scenarios so I'd say a low chance of the CMC's solution occurring. But it's not impossible. It's very early in the game still and the pattern by early next week ought to give us more clues on this. From a model bias standpoint, that is a bias of the Euro to hold the energy back too long in the SW and the GFS has a progressive bias as well. I currently have no prediction on this storm at this time.

[cloudy72]

Saw a few traffic cams up in the Cleveland area looking good this morning with some Lake Erie snowbelt fun! Also saw a video from Erie PA area of thundersnow last night. Jealous down here! LOL

[tron777]

Saw a few traffic cams up in the Cleveland area looking good this morning with some Lake Erie snowbelt fun! Also saw a video from Erie PA area of thundersnow last night. Jealous down here! LOL

Waiting for Jeff to jump on here and post but I believe he picked up 5" in Chardon per his last FB post.

[Snowbrain2]

4.6 new inches over night in Chardon
So far 9.1 in total for the month, average here is 9.6 inches for November.

[tron777]

Awesome Jeff! Always love seeing your videos and pics. Keep 'em coming for those of us who are snow starved.

[cloudy72]

12z GFS trying to drum up something interesting after Thanksgiving weekend esp north of the river.

[tron777]

12z GFS trying to drum up something interesting after Thanksgiving weekend esp north of the river.

Nice too see the GFS start to get a clue (at least on this run) Def a step in the right direction. Many of the GEFS members are amp'ed up like the overnight Euro. A few are like the overnight CMC and 12Z GFS too. Point is... the stronger storm idea I think is going to be correct. It's always down to timing. When does the phase occur and the strength / location of the cold high to the north. Those are the keys to success with this storm.

[tron777]

12Z CMC is back to the progressive solution again. Basically a cold frontal passage and that's it.

[MVWxObserver]

Kyle NOT guilty on ALL charges!

Currently 37 and progged for around 40 later here in G'ville.

[tron777]

12Z Euro model today is back to the non-phased / progressive solution as well after Thanksgiving. Probably a case of the models losing a system. only to bring it back in a couple of days.