November 2021 Weather Discussion

[young pup]

Grass and roof tops are covered here. Under some trees with leaves you still see grass though. Coming down moderately. I saw in fb group that salt trucks are out around Springfield. Roads over there are slushy

[dce]

In the Dayton area the Urban Heat Island effect is definitely apparent. I go to church about a mile from KDAY which is just north of I-70. I would estimate a little more than an inch was on the ground. The closer I got to Dayton on the drive home it was apparent that things were a little warmer. There was barely a covering on the ground around the downtown area. The closer I got to home on the south side of Dayton there was definitely more of a good covering on the ground. Not as much in West Carrollton as there was north of Dayton, but still probably close to a slushy inch.

[tron777]

Awesome Doug! That's a good start to the season. 0.11" QPF as of 1pm at CVG. Temp 38.

[cloudy72]

Latest official snow totals = 0.4” at KDAY and 0.6” at ILN.

[Ddmeyer004]

First, Good Sunday morning Les……second….well well what do my eyes see. The first snow in Mason, light but still the first flakes. Guess it’s time to put away the shorts and flip flops or pack the car and head to our home on Hilton Head

Can I join ya?

Hilton Head is my happy place.

Trevor Hilton Head has been our happy place for last 2 years since I retired. Bought a condo on South Forest Beach facing ocean. Headed back down in 3 weeks and will be there through Christmas

[cincy bud]

This is the view from my new place on the Butler/Preble Co line.

20211114_133929.jpg

20211114_134004.jpg

[tron777]

That looks so gorgeous, Bud! Thanks for sharing.

[cincy bud]

That looks so gorgeous, Bud! Thanks for sharing.

We bought a 206 year old farm house outside of Somerville. Supposedly I am the 2nd highest point in Butler Co. I know Oxford are is over 1000 ft above sea level. The sunsets and sunrises are unreal.

[dce]

Here is the 12z Euro for Nov. 24th. Check out that blocking! I hope this pans out. Even if it doesn't get that strong, it would be nice to see.

[cloudy72]

It’s official! 0.1” snow at CVG!!!

CINCINNATI OH Nov 14 Climate: High: 40 Low: 33 Precip: 0.22 Snow: 0.1

[cloudy72]

0.25” liquid here

[tron777]

I'll update the contest thread in a sec. Way to go Doug on the 1st accum call!

[tron777]

Here is the 12z Euro for Nov. 24th. Check out that blocking! I hope this pans out. Even if it doesn't get that strong, it would be nice to see.

12Z EPS is in very good agreement. I like a colder then avg Thanksgiving Week. It looks active too. Any accumulating snow TBD this far away but the chance is there right now for sure!

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

[tron777]

My high was 40 today after a morning low of 33. 0.17" in the books here with 0.1" of snow as well. I'll take it! The flakes at times were impressive looking. I-70 Crew should be very happy with today's outcome also.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS also has a +PNA and a -NAO for Thanksgiving Day:

GEFS.png

[mikeyp]

Picked up .17” of liquid today. Was awesome to see the snow around!!!

[young pup]

A couple from the area.

[Snowbrain2]

Snow moved in around noon in Chardon, Ohio. 3.5 inches by 7 pm.
LES tonight into tomorrow will bring more accumulation.

[tron777]

Awesome pics Jeff and JP! Thanks to all for their pics and reports. I love it! One more shot of some rain and snow (snow mainly north of Cincy) later this afternoon and evening ahead of our warm front that will push us to 60 tomorrow. A lovely day on Tues guys. U60s on Wed with some wind then we get wet and cool down again.

[tron777]

CB overnight blog post highlighting our change to colder for Thanksgiving week... can we get some snow? Stay tuned folks!

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=51173

[tron777]

27 here this morning, 29 at CVG.

[Bgoney]

Possible shift in LaNina commencing. Last seven days showing a trend to an East Pac LaNina as opposed to Central Pac. Need to do some digging to see what differences in the 500mb pattern this would have during j ng the winter months

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

nino12.png

[tron777]

I believe that an east based Nina is better for blocking and for getting cold into the East versus a Central based one. It's the opposite in an El Nino, but for a Nina, that is the structure that you would want. I also still believe that it might bode well for the second half of winter since it could be becoming more east based. We'll have to wait and see as usual, but I think some wild times are ahead with a moderately -QBO and the possible east based Nina coming into play later on down the road. If we can keep the blocking we've seen off and on over the last few months, we should be in good shape. Ensembles are liking the idea of a -NAO down the road so we'll have to wait and see.

[Bgoney]

I believe that an east based Nina is better for blocking and for getting cold into the East versus a Central based one. It's the opposite in an El Nino, but for a Nina, that is the structure that you would want. I also still believe that it might bode well for the second half of winter since it could be becoming more east based. We'll have to wait and see as usual, but I think some wild times are ahead with a moderately -QBO and the possible east based Nina coming into play later on down the road. If we can keep the blocking we've seen off and on over the last few months, we should be in good shape. Ensembles are liking the idea of a -NAO down the road so we'll have to wait and see.

That's what I was thinking but was looking in my bookmarks to be sure , to add to your thoughts , I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that an EP LaNina more often than not, leads to a more poleward reaching ridge along the NAmerican coast

[tron777]

I believe that an east based Nina is better for blocking and for getting cold into the East versus a Central based one. It's the opposite in an El Nino, but for a Nina, that is the structure that you would want. I also still believe that it might bode well for the second half of winter since it could be becoming more east based. We'll have to wait and see as usual, but I think some wild times are ahead with a moderately -QBO and the possible east based Nina coming into play later on down the road. If we can keep the blocking we've seen off and on over the last few months, we should be in good shape. Ensembles are liking the idea of a -NAO down the road so we'll have to wait and see.

That's what I was thinking but was looking in my bookmarks to be sure , to add to your thoughts , I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that an EP LaNina more often than not, leads to a more poleward reaching ridge along the NAmerican coast

That is correct whereas if it's Central based, the North Pacific ridge tends to be more flat which would lead to a -PNA pattern and the SE ridge for us.