November 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

November temp departure thru Veteran's Day - About normal for us as Bgoney stated the other day.

Nov Temp Departure.png

[dce]

18Z NAM continues to show a burst of snow Sunday morning changing or mixing with some rain in the afternoon with the clipper. If correct, we all would see first flakes of the season if that doesn't occur for your particular hood tonight.


NAMed.png

Big kudos to Doug - bro you picked the 14th right on the nose in the snowfall contest for first 0.1" at CVG!!! I know it hasn't actually happened, however your chances look quite good for this!

We will see. That would be pretty cool if it actually happens. You know how snowfall forecasts go around here though. The ground could still be too warm. The heavier snows could stay north of the river. All that being said, I do like the chances for at least a tenth of an inch though.

[snowbo]

I'm seeing brine on some of the roads around here. Not sure what they are expecting - maybe its just a practice run.

Wow.. what a waste of tax payer dollars. Ground is way too warm regardless of what happens. Never did care for that brine anyway and I've always thought of it as a joke.

Talked to an Ohio DOT dispatcher a bit ago. She said that they must have just been practicing. She also told me that the Ohio DOT is looking to hire 500 plow drivers. Wow, hope that doesn't impact travel across the state this Winter season.

[tron777]

I'm seeing brine on some of the roads around here. Not sure what they are expecting - maybe its just a practice run.

Wow.. what a waste of tax payer dollars. Ground is way too warm regardless of what happens. Never did care for that brine anyway and I've always thought of it as a joke.

Talked to an Ohio DOT dispatcher a bit ago. She said that they must have just been practicing. She also told me that the Ohio DOT is looking to hire 500 plow drivers. Wow, hope that doesn't impact travel across the state this Winter season.

Yeah, I've heard about the driver shortages. I'm sure KY and IN are probably in the same boat too I would suspect.

[tron777]

Next band of chilly light rain is moving in. Now per radar algorithms there might be some flakes trying to mix in on the back edge of that band of rain. Would need ground reports to verify. Scattered snow showers also across IND and ILL. So there is a small chance some could see a few flakes mix in overnight or early Sat morning if you're up to see it. 850s are cold enough minus Eastern counties as of this post, but 925 MB temps do not drop below zero until you get towards Central IN around IND. Surface temps range from the mid 30s in Central IN to the mid 40s in our Eastern counties. 41 here and at CVG. I'm up to 0.04" on the day for rain.

Best chance for snow still looks to be with the clipper on Sunday as previously discussed.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Temps are in the low to mid 30s across the region. Clouds will keep temps from moving very much today. Most folks will struggle to hit 40 degrees and will likely stay in the 30s. The clipper system continues to speed up as far as the timing goes so snow is more likely now at precip onset versus an all rain event. This means we should all see our first flakes of the season late tonight and esp in the morning tomorrow! Some of us down here will probably change to rain before all is said and done. Not expecting any issues with this system at all on the roads but a dusting is not out of the question. Maybe something a bit more north of Cincy? We'll see! Roads and ground are pretty warm though. A roof / car topper and some grassy light accumulations are def possible though. Just to get us all in the mood.

Temps in the low 40s Sun and mid 40s on Mon. Dry on Mon and Tues. By Tues we could get close to 60 and in the 60s on Wed ahead of our next front. Rain is now poised to move in late Wed afternoon and end early Thurs morning. Then temps drop again back into the 40s by the end of next week. By next weekend and for the week of Thanksgiving... storm and pattern evolution continues to differ on models. GFS brings us rain next weekend, Euro does too but after that do we see some snow around the Thanksgiving time period? We'll be watching and tracking it for sure. I think there will be a storm right before Thanksgiving to keep an eye on and one probably right after it as well. Precip type obviously TBD.

[snowbo]

Nice accumulation on elevated surfaces. Maybe only a tenth or two but enough to whiten up the deck and fences.

[cloudy72]

Friend in Huber heights on north side of Dayton had a bit of snow on their grassy surfaces this morning.

[tron777]

Awesome guys! No snow here but it looks like some graupel on the car tops at least. I'll take it.

[snowbo]

36CF8CF8-B55A-494F-9E60-46A0AFF76A8C.jpeg

Here’s my deck.

[tron777]

Some snap shots of the 12Z NAM run for tomorrow.

Well crap... I messed up the images in this post and can't go back to grab the 1st NAM image that I wanted too. College of Dupage site went down on me. GRRR... This will have to do.

NAM1.png

NAM2.png

N AM3.png

Text data for a few selected sites:

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN  7A 14-NOV   0.5    -4.1    1015      97      97    0.05     552     540    
SUN  1P 14-NOV   5.5    -2.5    1009      76      16    0.03     541     533 

HAO

SUN  7A 14-NOV   0.8    -4.7    1014      96      96    0.06     551     539    
SUN  1P 14-NOV   3.9    -3.2    1009      82      12    0.04     540     533    
SUN  7P 14-NOV   1.8    -7.2    1013      73      98    0.01     536     526    
MON  1A 15-NOV   1.3    -5.6    1017      81      77    0.01     542     528 

MGY

SUN  7A 14-NOV   0.4    -5.0    1014      97      95    0.07     550     539    
SUN  1P 14-NOV   2.5    -3.5    1008      89      17    0.07     539     532    
SUN  7P 14-NOV   0.8    -7.2    1012      81      97    0.03     535     526    
MON  1A 15-NOV   0.5    -5.9    1016      88      76    0.03     541     528   

DAY

SUN  7A 14-NOV   0.2    -5.2    1014      97      95    0.08     549     538    
SUN  1P 14-NOV   1.8    -4.0    1008      92      17    0.08     538     532    
SUN  7P 14-NOV   0.4    -7.2    1011      85      98    0.03     535     526    
MON  1A 15-NOV   0.4    -6.0    1015      91      75    0.04     540     528    

CMH

SUN  7A 14-NOV   0.9    -6.8    1014      91      94    0.01     550     538    
SUN  1P 14-NOV   2.3    -3.6    1008      90      73    0.15     539     532    
SUN  7P 14-NOV   2.2    -7.3    1010      86      82    0.05     535     527    
MON  1A 15-NOV   1.0    -5.5    1013      94      88    0.03     538     527    
MON  7A 15-NOV   0.8    -7.3    1020      91      10    0.01     543     527  

And finally.... the 12Z Nested NAM run.

NAMNest1.png

NAMNest2.png

[tron777]

36CF8CF8-B55A-494F-9E60-46A0AFF76A8C.jpeg
Here’s my deck.

Oh wow! I like it, I like it!

[kywthrluvr]

Hey all! Haven’t posted in a while…..did a little traveling over the summer then had a couple of minor surgeries. I’ve been reading all the posts but didn’t have anything to offer lol! My husband and son went hunting this morning and the truck windshield was covered with what appeared to be graupel, so there was something frozen falling even if it wasn’t snow. Looking forward to tracking winter weather even though I’m with Trevor—bring back summer!!

[tron777]

Hey Leslie! Always nice to see you. Hope you are doing well. A little snow headed our way and some rain too just to get folks in the mood.

[tron777]

18Z NAM is trying to cook up 1-2" of snow accum North and East of Cincinnati. 18Z HRRR has 0.5-1" for everyone.

[tron777]

40 here and at CVG today. A trace of snow was recorded from the graupel that we got overnight. Remember, 0.1" or higher for the contest so 11/13 doesn't count. I think as Mike stated, that Doug should win the 1st accum call as long as the data pans out tomorrow morning with the clipper. Radar already shows rain and snow over N MO and Iowa which is headed our way for the morning.

[tron777]

Best chance for accumulating snow per CB:

SPECIAL-MAP.png

[tron777]

Nice AFD from the boys on this system:


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cloudy skies and perhaps a few sprinkles or flurries can be
expected into this evening as west winds begin to diminish.

For tonight, a weak surface ridge will move east through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. Meanwhile, a clipper type
system will be organizing to our northwest which will push
southeast into the western Great Lakes and middle Mississippi
Valley. An increasing low level jet and thus isentropic lift is
expected to develop an area of pcpn late tonight. The atmosphere
should be cold enough for the majority of this pcpn to fall as
snow. A few tenths will be possible, mainly on elevated and
grassy surfaces. Am not expecting much impact on roadways as
road models indicate that pavements will retain their heat and
remain above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Several waves of pcpn are expected with the clipper type system
Sunday into Sunday night.

First impulse of isentropic lift is expected to move east by
mid morning, followed by another bout of pcpn out ahead of a
cold front. It will be a raw day as winds increase from the
southwest and become gusty. The snow will begin to mix with rain
or perhaps change to all rain across the southern two thirds of
the CWFA by afternoon as the boundary layer warms sufficiently
above freezing. Again, a few tenths of an inch of snow may
accumulate on elevated and grassy surfaces before the warming
and sun angle cause it to melt. The aforementioned cold front is
forecast to sweep west to east across the region later Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. Showery pcpn is expected with and
behind the front. Colder air will filter back into the region A
trailing surface trof axis and embedded s/wv energy aloft will
bring some rain and snow showers in the CAA pattern. Pcpn is
expected to taper off from west to east overnight. Highs will
range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s with lows dropping
into the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Gusty winds will produce wind
chill values in the upper teens to the lower 20s.

[young pup]

Ready or not, radar shows it coming.

[Bgoney]

0.01 of snow at CVG with first area of moisture. Second batch about to move in , can the temps along the river support 0.09" more of snow to officially crown a winner in the contest?

[tron777]

Good morning all! Woke up to a car topper this morning. As Bgoney said... can we remain all snow with this next push of moisture down here? 34 at CVG, 35 here currently. It is really boarder line looking at the SPC Meso page so need precip rate to be heavy enough to overcome it. Where it does remain snow, the flake size should be decent per radar and not little tiny flurries. Please report this morning your obs folks and snap a pic should you get a little something out of it. Happy First Snow on the season to you all!

[young pup]

My brother is at Notre Dame for work. This is what he walked out to. He said it 88 at his home in California yesterday. I said welcome back to the Midwest. Lol

FAC18FA8-5027-4E23-8496-8389D52B57F3.jpeg

FAC18FA8-5027-4E23-8496-8389D52B57F3.jpeg

[young pup]

Sorry about the double pictures.

[cloudy72]

Getting a heavy snow squall here now

[snowbo]

Snowing nicely here too!