November 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Euro continues to be the weakest / further north with the clipper versus the other models. All models give us precip of some kind minus the Euro. We're basically dry on this ruin as it tracks thru Mich. Not buying it since the GEFS, CMC, and GFS are all stronger and further to the south. I still like rain with flurries possible on the backside. I see no reason to change that line of thinking at this point.

[tron777]

66 as of 1pm at CVG. Some high clouds are starting to roll in from the West ahead of tomorrow afternoons cold front. I doubt anyone in our CWA hits 70 but a lot of you should be in that mid to upper 60 degree range. I hope you all have had some time to enjoy this.

[cloudy72]

62 here currently.

[cloudy72]

Still not sure what to think about Sunday up here in I-70 land. GFS has about an inch on the snow depth maps. But as we have mentioned it is still early in the season and ground temps are quite warm so not sure how much can accumulate.

[tron777]

Still not sure what to think about Sunday up here in I-70 land. GFS has about an inch on the snow depth maps. But as we have mentioned it is still early in the season and ground temps are quite warm so not sure how much can accumulate.

Time of day will have a say most certainly and maybe you all up north can get a little dusting. I just don't see CVG getting that lucky out of the deal. Flurries yes, but I'm not really expecting anything more then that down here.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and 77 down here in Greenville. Not much has changed and Les we are on the same page. Sure we could get enough cold air for the precip to change to snow even down here for a brief period and models would never be able to figure that out 4 days in advance because they can barely handle 4 hours in advance. Could it stick and maybe if its at night but only on car tops,roofs etc. If it does stick it will melt with 15 minutes after the last flake fell. So I like the ideal of rain showers mix maybe at times with snowflakes and even maybe a quick period of snow but not expecting much.. Heading towards I-70 a better shot but even then maybe 1/4 could happen but same situation.

Looking forward to next week is very similar with a warm up and then a cold front to bring us back down. The mjo is located in phase 4 though weak at the moment. This is key and if it remains in phase 4 or goes through 4-6 there will not be a long term cool down. Will we see it come back through the COD and head back towards the colder phases is key imo. I understand the mjo does not always run the show but it can still have an affect when a pattern is not being controlled by just one item.

Yes I still believe the week of Thanksgiving is a good time to see this happen and would hope to see some signs with the mjo starting next week. If not then I will need to see what else may be controlling the pattern.

[tron777]

Great post Tim and we are 100% on the same page with this. I don't see the MJO as currently being a factor with it being weak or in the COD. Some other Teleconnection will be driving the pattern. I don't see the NAO or AO doing much driving yet, it's pretty much neutral. Hoping the -WPO can be in the driver seat to get that ridge more poleward towards the north pole and arctic circle area. That's what we need for cold. That's what we need to be watching for.

[snowbo]

Hi all - sorry I have been AWOL. I had COVID in January and I am still fighting the many after effects. Quality of life hasn't been great. Hopefully some snow will make me feel better.

Carp

Sure glad to see you back posting Matt. I hope you can post more often. Prayers man that you can fight off the Chinese Virus!

Hang in there Matt. Keep fighting! Prayers for you and a complete recovery!!!!!

[tpweather]

Les another factor I am looking at is what Bgoney talked about an uptick in the cooling of waters concerning the La Nina. Australia in the central and eastern part of been hit with very heavy rains in the past several days and yes it is their springtime so rain is expected. La Nina mainly affects the northern part of the country and during a La Nina heavier than normal rains fall in the summer or say late Dec to early March. Will this happen and is the heavy rains further south just a clue of what may happen. I have always looked at the USA to see what affects it has on us but saying that we know Australia and parts of South America really are affected by this and can we look at their weather as well to get a clue of how the La Nina is doing strength wise. So many parts of the puzzle but when I see things out of the ordinary like the really heavy rains in recent days down there I want to know what might be the cause.

[tron777]

Les another factor I am looking at is what Bgoney talked about an uptick in the cooling of waters concerning the La Nina. Australia in the central and eastern part of been hit with very heavy rains in the past several days and yes it is their springtime so rain is expected. La Nina mainly affects the northern part of the country and during a La Nina heavier than normal rains fall in the summer or say late Dec to early March. Will this happen and is the heavy rains further south just a clue of what may happen. I have always looked at the USA to see what affects it has on us but saying that we know Australia and parts of South America really are affected by this and can we look at their weather as well to get a clue of how the La Nina is doing strength wise. So many parts of the puzzle but when I see things out of the ordinary like the really heavy rains in recent days down there I want to know what might be the cause.

Also agree! What happens upstream, or to our West, even if it's thousands of miles away, can absolutely have an impact down stream over North America. We're just going to have to watch and wait to see what happens. We've been getting a few cold shots now and possible flakes upcoming... which is very early for us. So that early start to winter IMO is happening, just not as dramatic as some people are thinking. Canada should catch up in the snow and cold air dept in the next 2 weeks. I think we'll have cold air to work with for late Nov and into Dec. We just have to see how things look at 500 MB once we get closer.

[tpweather]

I agree Les and we need to continue to watch these troughs diving into the eastern part of the country. We hopefully will see future troughs dig further into the central and southern plains as they are just getting clipped by them. Having them dig further south and west will also help push the ridging out west further west and hopefully further north in time. We talk about this in the later spring where strong ridging in the southwest can help move this way and give us a hot summer if timing is correct. This happens much less in later fall and winter but it can influence the weather if it gets stronger and is able to expand a little further east than normal. Just another piece of the puzzle. Also lets see if the GOM starts to get busy of the next few weeks and I really expect that to happen as well which will no doubt help in getting the USA in a stormier pattern.

[tron777]

I agree Les and we need to continue to watch these troughs diving into the eastern part of the country. We hopefully will see future troughs dig further into the central and southern plains as they are just getting clipped by them. Having them dig further south and west will also help push the ridging out west further west and hopefully further north in time. We talk about this in the later spring where strong ridging in the southwest can help move this way and give us a hot summer if timing is correct. This happens much less in later fall and winter but it can influence the weather if it gets stronger and is able to expand a little further east than normal. Just another piece of the puzzle. Also lets see if the GOM starts to get busy of the next few weeks and I really expect that to happen as well which will no doubt help in getting the USA in a stormier pattern.

The set up isn't great, but not a total shut out pattern. If the ridges and troughs can align themselves about 100-150 miles further East than where they are presently located, you're going to see a world of difference with regards to cold and snow chances. That's what we're looking for down the road.

EDIT: I think we both just said the same thing!

[tron777]

69 here today... CVG got to at least 67, maybe 68.

[cloudy72]

63 was my high today

[tron777]

68 officially at CVG per the 5pm climate report. A lovely evening to be honest out there. Last one for a little while so if you have plans outside tonight, let er rip! Looks great!

[young pup]

Hi all - sorry I have been AWOL. I had COVID in January and I am still fighting the many after effects. Quality of life hasn't been great. Hopefully some snow will make me feel better.

Carp

Sorry to hear Matt. Keep fighting it and continue to get better.

[MVWxObserver]

Trying to post an image of the Euro and GFS outline set ups for Sunday via the WHIO7 site and for some reason the set up via attachments here at AV won't allow it.

What kind of file is it? PNG, JPG, or GIF's work just fine. Twitter and Facebook links work as well.

I forget now, Bro.

I did successfully get it to take at Facebook.

[MVWxObserver]

Hi all - sorry I have been AWOL. I had COVID in January and I am still fighting the many after effects. Quality of life hasn't been great. Hopefully some snow will make me feel better.

Carp

So sorry to hear, Bro. Prayers continuing for you and your family.

Currently 54 here in Greenville.

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
313 PM EST Wed Nov 10 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-070>072-
112015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-
313 PM EST Wed Nov 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible late Thursday morning into
the afternoon hours.

$$

[tron777]

Trying to post an image of the Euro and GFS outline set ups for Sunday via the WHIO7 site and for some reason the set up via attachments here at AV won't allow it.

What kind of file is it? PNG, JPG, or GIF's work just fine. Twitter and Facebook links work as well.

I forget now, Bro.

I did successfully get it to take at Facebook.

Please let me know whenever there is an issue. Even if I am not on the forum, send me a PM. You know I am on the forum for like 15 hours out of a 24 hour day!

[MVWxObserver]

Trying to post an image of the Euro and GFS outline set ups for Sunday via the WHIO7 site and for some reason the set up via attachments here at AV won't allow it.

What kind of file is it? PNG, JPG, or GIF's work just fine. Twitter and Facebook links work as well.

I forget now, Bro.

I did successfully get it to take at Facebook.

Please let me know whenever there is an issue. Even if I am not on the forum, send me a PM. You know I am on the forum for like 15 hours out of a 24 hour day!

Thank you, Les, and will do, Bro, for next time!

[young pup]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
313 PM EST Wed Nov 10 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-070>072-
112015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-
313 PM EST Wed Nov 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible late Thursday morning into
the afternoon hours.

$$

Awesome, I just hope the wind is going the way I want the leaves to go when I am blowing them. LOL

[Bgoney]

PV update


The strat. vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average
and is forecasted to remain stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean)
27 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the
last forecast step (2021-11-26 00:00:00)

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 33.5 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 10.9 m/s 2009
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 41.7 m/s 2019

u_65N_10hpa.png

[Bgoney]

The week of warmth, then windy and rain played out nicely. Rain starts around lunchtime and ends around dinnertime. A few gusts in the 30-40mph range . If you want to see some frozen precip tomorrow hope for plenty of sun in the morning to combine with the CAA to form some late afternoon and evening light showers with possible ice pellets mixing in

[tron777]

Well folks... This Week in Weather from DT and the cold that was shown by the extended models isn't going to come. Below normal at times but not full blown winter as was once expected. I expected it. A lot of Pro Mets did too. Here's what went wrong: