Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2021-2022

[Phr0z3n]

New euro weeklies run show a tanking EPO after the 14th. This should be very interesting especially coupled with a negative WPO. Below is the euro weekly teleconnection forecast only. Gefs extended showing the same thing with the only difference being Gefs has a Neg AO and euro weeklies has neutral slightly positive.

B8E53709-911D-4C06-8366-2E3604EE8B36.png

BA4919F3-287E-4322-B444-60059670B827.png

[tron777]

Thanks Matt as always for the charts. Please keep 'em coming if you can. I think the -WPO is gaining more confidence. The -EPO is a bit more of a toss up right now for me until we get a little closer. But if they can both be negative then the models should turn colder with time and be more sustainable with the cold as well.

[tron777]

I wouldn't mind Dec 2010 (snowiest on record for Cincinnati) and Dec of 2013 as analogs.

[tron777]

I wouldn't mind Dec 2010 and 2013 as analogs. Dec 2010 was the snowiest on record at CVG.

[tron777]

LC's latest long term thoughts:

https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramer ... EzkAjKU85Y

[tron777]

I am watching and waiting but... Is the Nina already weakening??? If it is, this bodes well for winter esp that it is still East based.

IsTheNinaWeakeningAlready.jpg

[tpweather]

I am watching and waiting but... Is the Nina already weakening??? If it is, this bodes well for winter esp that it is still East based.


IsTheNinaWeakeningAlready.jpg

Good Morning Les and you know my thoughts on the La Nina, I know some models/folks kept calling on a moderate La Nina but the oceans themselves were really never showing that. At the end of the day I see better than I hear.

[tron777]

I am watching and waiting but... Is the Nina already weakening??? If it is, this bodes well for winter esp that it is still East based.


IsTheNinaWeakeningAlready.jpg

Good Morning Les and you know my thoughts on the La Nina, I know some models/folks kept calling on a moderate La Nina but the oceans themselves were really never showing that. At the end of the day I see better than I hear.

If this is correct then officially it will be a weak Nina with an ONI peak in that -0.9 to -1.1 range. Very interesting isn't it?

[Phr0z3n]

I am watching and waiting but... Is the Nina already weakening??? If it is, this bodes well for winter esp that it is still East based.


IsTheNinaWeakeningAlready.jpg

Good Morning Les and you know my thoughts on the La Nina, I know some models/folks kept calling on a moderate La Nina but the oceans themselves were really never showing that. At the end of the day I see better than I hear.

If this is correct then officially it will be a weak Nina with an ONI peak in that -0.9 to -1.1 range. Very interesting isn't it?

Hmmm very good point. I always look at the anomalous 20c isotherm depth. You can definitely see the propagation of warm water over the nino regions

11DEC448-9CB1-4FDA-95A7-624E65187F15.gif

Looks probable that the cold water is going to be pushed
To the left of the chart

[tron777]

Hmmm very good point. I always look at the anomalous 20c isotherm depth. You can definitely see the propagation of warm water over the nino regions
11DEC448-9CB1-4FDA-95A7-624E65187F15.gif
Looks probable that the cold water is going to be pushed
To the left of the chart

This Nina maybe peaking a little earlier then expected. I think that may bode well for the second half of winter. I was thinking originally that winter gets off to an early start. I still think that by the way. Then La Nina conditions slowly take over after that and by mid January or Feb we start to torch. March looks good for cold and snow chances early on, then bring on Spring. That would be a typical mod 2nd year Nina. But if the Nina is weakening now... then we might luck out and have a better pattern down the road then I originally had thought. It's still going to depend on blocking in the AO / NAO domains. We really need a -EPO more so then the -NAO. We just need something to help offset the PNA so the SE ridge doesn't get out of hand. The -PNA doesn't bother me at all as long as you have blocking fighting off the SE ridge. Then you can score some nice snow chances and some cold air to go along with it also. I also like what we've discussed in terms of the moderately -QBO and the -WPO we are starting to see occur. Can we get help up top is the ultimate question? If we don't then the SE ridge will be tough for us. But if we do get some blocking help, there should be a lot of fun times around here.

[Bgoney]

I like using the SOI in combination with the surface and sub surface anomalies. Notice toward the end of October the soi relaxed or was near neutral or negative, which probably explains the current ever so slight drop in 3.4 region. Now look at the most recent days where the SOI has risen + fairly quickly and rather significant, which I think means more easterlies to come and moving the colder surface and Sub-surface waters more westerly again affecting the 3.4 region in the coming weeks , so , I expect LaNina to at least gain back its number and possibly a bit more

Screenshot_20211109-200358_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20211109-200645_Chrome.jpg

wkxzteq_anm.gif

[tpweather]

I like using the SOI in combination with the surface and sub surface anomalies. Notice toward the end of October the soi relaxed or was near neutral or negative, which probably explains the current ever so slight drop in 3.4 region. Now look at the most recent days where the SOI has risen + fairly quickly and rather significant, which I think means more easterlies to come and moving the colder surface and Sub-surface waters more westerly again affecting the 3.4 region in the coming weeks , so , I expect LaNina to at least gain back its number and possibly a bit more

Screenshot_20211109-200358_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20211109-200645_Chrome.jpg
wkxzteq_anm.gif

Bgoney love your point of view on this topic. I look at the SOI as well but imo this number rises and falls quickly and I need to see a longer period of time but I do understand your point. I still believe weak is all we get out of the La Nina but this year is a good example for us to follow. If we get the significant rise in a quick manner that usually means the weather in much of the USA gets quite busy and something I have noticed with most La Nina's or El Nino's is when you have these spikes or quick decreases the weather in the mainland USA becomes quite messy.

[Bgoney]

I like using the SOI in combination with the surface and sub surface anomalies. Notice toward the end of October the soi relaxed or was near neutral or negative, which probably explains the current ever so slight drop in 3.4 region. Now look at the most recent days where the SOI has risen + fairly quickly and rather significant, which I think means more easterlies to come and moving the colder surface and Sub-surface waters more westerly again affecting the 3.4 region in the coming weeks , so , I expect LaNina to at least gain back its number and possibly a bit more

Screenshot_20211109-200358_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20211109-200645_Chrome.jpg
wkxzteq_anm.gif

Bgoney love your point of view on this topic. I look at the SOI as well but imo this number rises and falls quickly and I need to see a longer period of time but I do understand your point. I still believe weak is all we get out of the La Nina but this year is a good example for us to follow. If we get the significant rise in a quick manner that usually means the weather in much of the USA gets quite busy and something I have noticed with most La Nina's or El Nino's is when you have these spikes or quick decreases the weather in the mainland USA becomes quite messy.

I agree , I'm not saying it's going to reach 1.5 which I think would be moderate strength, but 1.2 , 1.3 , is still possible

[tron777]

I agree with your point guys on the SOI fluctuating. When it spikes either positive or negative like that, that usually does mean more active weather for the CONUS. Doesn't always mean severe wx or wintry weather just active weather in general. The 500 MB pattern of course determines what kind of weather we get.

[tron777]

DT's Winter Weather Outlook:

https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21A ... 03&o=OneUp

[cloudy72]

Euro snow depth forecast for 00z 11/26. Look at all that snow pack developing up in Canada!

[tron777]

Looking nice Mike! Hopefully it'll lead to a nice December for us.

[tron777]

CB's Winter Outlook:

https://www.wkyt.com/2021/11/18/chief-m ... -forecast/