November 2021 Weather Discussion

[young pup]

Hope that Canadian model is off it's rocker. But, just in case I will need to get a skid of bagged salt since I can't do bulk yet due to the leaf box on the truck. Always like to keep some of that on hand anyways.

[tron777]

Hope that Canadian model is off it's rocker. But, just in case I will need to get a skid of bagged salt since I can't do bulk yet due to the leaf box on the truck. Always like to keep some of that on hand anyways.

18Z GFS and 12Z Euro are further north so it's just rain for most folks. 12Z CMC so far is on it's own.

[young pup]

Hope that Canadian model is off it's rocker. But, just in case I will need to get a skid of bagged salt since I can't do bulk yet due to the leaf box on the truck. Always like to keep some of that on hand anyways.

18Z GFS and 12Z Euro are further north so it's just rain for most folks. 12Z CMC so far is on it's own.

Just something to keep an eye on see what it does. Ground will be to warm anyway for it to amount to anything. Just something to watch and to get my butt in gear to check snow equipment out.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We do have two chances folks at first flakes. Late Sat night into early Sun (then all rain) followed by that clipper system Sun night into Monday of next week. I expect mostly rain out of these systems but first flakes for everyone is indeed possible. We shall see! Until then the 60s thru Thurs then we drop. We look to get wet with that strong cold front on Veteran's Day as well. Wind gusts over 30 mph also possible.

[tron777]

The clipper system Sun night and Monday continues to look like the best chance to see snow. The CMC is still on board and the GFS is now too. Euro is still weaker and north but flurries are possible even with its solution. So we go from the 60s to rain and wind, then more wind, colder temps with more rain and potentially some snow? This is all in the next 7 days folks. Buckle up as it's about to get busy on here.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! We do have two chances folks at first flakes. Late Sat night into early Sun (then all rain) followed by that clipper system Sun night into Monday of next week. I expect mostly rain out of these systems but first flakes for everyone is indeed possible. We shall see! Until then the 60s thru Thurs then we drop. We look to get wet with that strong cold front on Veteran's Day as well. Wind gusts over 30 mph also possible.

Sound very nice the next few days. Beautiful here in SC but with the frost at home my allergies had subsided but down here no such luck and back to box of tissues. Les your forecast looks great and would be nice to see the first flakes but no matter what its going to feel and look more like a mid-December weekend instead of mid- November.

[tpweather]

The clipper system Sun night and Monday continues to look like the best chance to see snow. The CMC is still on board and the GFS is now too. Euro is still weaker and north but flurries are possible even with its solution. So we go from the 60s to rain and wind, then more wind, colder temps with more rain and potentially some snow? This is all in the next 7 days folks. Buckle up as it's about to get busy on here.

Would be funny if the CMC won this battle of models. The CMC is further north than yesterday but still there and like you mentioned the gfs is as well since it always seems to be to progressive with systems 5-10 days out and usually slows down the pattern once it gets within 5 days or so.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We do have two chances folks at first flakes. Late Sat night into early Sun (then all rain) followed by that clipper system Sun night into Monday of next week. I expect mostly rain out of these systems but first flakes for everyone is indeed possible. We shall see! Until then the 60s thru Thurs then we drop. We look to get wet with that strong cold front on Veteran's Day as well. Wind gusts over 30 mph also possible.

Sound very nice the next few days. Beautiful here in SC but with the frost at home my allergies had subsided but down here no such luck and back to box of tissues. Les your forecast looks great and would be nice to see the first flakes but no matter what its going to feel and look more like a mid-December weekend instead of mid- November.

The early start to winter is certainly looking more and more possible Tim with each passing day. So glad I busted my butt and got the tree trimming finished yesterday.

[tron777]

The clipper system Sun night and Monday continues to look like the best chance to see snow. The CMC is still on board and the GFS is now too. Euro is still weaker and north but flurries are possible even with its solution. So we go from the 60s to rain and wind, then more wind, colder temps with more rain and potentially some snow? This is all in the next 7 days folks. Buckle up as it's about to get busy on here.

Would be funny if the CMC won this battle of models. The CMC is further north than yesterday but still there and like you mentioned the gfs is as well since it always seems to be to progressive with systems 5-10 days out and usually slows down the pattern once it gets within 5 days or so.

With our first system on Thurs coming up, I think the Euro won that round. Would love to see the CMC win the clipper round for sure. Plenty of time to see how things shake out.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! We do have two chances folks at first flakes. Late Sat night into early Sun (then all rain) followed by that clipper system Sun night into Monday of next week. I expect mostly rain out of these systems but first flakes for everyone is indeed possible. We shall see! Until then the 60s thru Thurs then we drop. We look to get wet with that strong cold front on Veteran's Day as well. Wind gusts over 30 mph also possible.

Sound very nice the next few days. Beautiful here in SC but with the frost at home my allergies had subsided but down here no such luck and back to box of tissues. Les your forecast looks great and would be nice to see the first flakes but no matter what its going to feel and look more like a mid-December weekend instead of mid- November.

The early start to winter is certainly looking more and more possible Tim with each passing day. So glad I busted my butt and got the tree trimming finished yesterday.

Les timing is killing me and once I get back home I will need to kick it into overdrive

[tron777]

Good morning all! We do have two chances folks at first flakes. Late Sat night into early Sun (then all rain) followed by that clipper system Sun night into Monday of next week. I expect mostly rain out of these systems but first flakes for everyone is indeed possible. We shall see! Until then the 60s thru Thurs then we drop. We look to get wet with that strong cold front on Veteran's Day as well. Wind gusts over 30 mph also possible.

Sound very nice the next few days. Beautiful here in SC but with the frost at home my allergies had subsided but down here no such luck and back to box of tissues. Les your forecast looks great and would be nice to see the first flakes but no matter what its going to feel and look more like a mid-December weekend instead of mid- November.

The early start to winter is certainly looking more and more possible Tim with each passing day. So glad I busted my butt and got the tree trimming finished yesterday.

Les timing is killing me and once I get back home I will need to kick it into overdrive

Yeah... it's much harder for you to work with the weather since you're taking care of 2 different places. You def need some luck in that regard.

[tron777]

Low of 37 here this morning, CVG dropped to 39.

[tron777]

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/09/snowta ... -blog-119/

[tpweather]

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/09/snowta ... -blog-119/

Got to watch this segment and Brian keyed in something we talk about on here. He mentioned the pattern that seems to be setting up for the remainder of Nov and he also mentioned Dec but of course that could change later in the month. The pattern is one that repeats with a warm up and rain followed by a really nice cold front and chances of snow/rain with clipper systems. Again the closer we get to Dec the more and likely these systems have a better shot of us seeing some snow. Does this pattern last 2 weeks or is one that goes 5 or 6 weeks and way to early to figure that one out. Can we get big snows out of this pattern and usually that is a no but we can get a decent clipper because folks in the central plains are getting clipped by this pattern so it warms up quickly in that part of the world and these clippers tend to be more active with a nice temp difference. Another way is to have an upper low get stuck underneath the main flow and this tends to be an extended period of either a cold rain or snow. Getting a big system from the southwest in this pattern is unlikely as the troughs are digging pretty far southeast so if a big storm does form its more and likely going up the east coast or out to sea.. I use my 12 weeks of winter split up into 3 areas and the next 2 weeks or so is the one where its not great for winter weather but its not zero so for late Nov I will gladly take the pattern. Btw with the recent cold snap it does keep surface temps colder then you would normally see for this time of year and yes the few days of sun and warmth brings it up just a hair but getting a system at night which might have snow could stick at least until the sun comes up the next day.

[cloudy72]

Sorry for the lack of posts - actually got COVID in the house and just now getting better. Hey at least I am fully vaxxed now. LOL Sounds like some exciting weather coming up!

[tron777]

Sorry for the lack of posts - actually got COVID in the house and just now getting better. Hey at least I am fully vaxxed now. LOL Sounds like some exciting weather coming up!

Oh wow! So glad to hear you and the fam are better Mike!

[snowbo]

Sorry for the lack of posts - actually got COVID in the house and just now getting better. Hey at least I am fully vaxxed now. LOL Sounds like some exciting weather coming up!

Oh wow! So glad to hear you and the fam are better Mike!

Take it slow Mike! Good to hear you're recovering and feeling better!

[dce]

Sorry for the lack of posts - actually got COVID in the house and just now getting better. Hey at least I am fully vaxxed now. LOL Sounds like some exciting weather coming up!

Glad to hear your are better!

[tron777]

Clipper is further north on the 12Z GFS. Mainly rain with a few flakes on the back side.

[cloudy72]

Thanks everyone! In looking at the 12z GFS snow depth maps, I could see a few spots north of I-70 that get a grassy coating of snow with that clipper on Sunday. I agree Les that most of us will likely be too warm and will see mainly rain with back side flakes possible. At least that is how is looks currently.

[tron777]

Thanks everyone! In looking at the 12z GFS snow depth maps, I could see a few spots north of I-70 that get a grassy coating of snow with that clipper on Sunday. I agree Les that most of us will likely be too warm and will see mainly rain with back side flakes possible. At least that is how is looks currently.

It is only November after all and climo would suggest that northern track anyway. We'll see... plenty of time to watch it nonetheless.

[tron777]

12Z CMC is going to be coming in further north too. So there you go. The best call for now is rain with perhaps some backside flurries barring any further changes of course.

[tron777]

12Z Euro behind our Thurs system, continues to show sprinkles / flurries early Sat morning being possible. Then for the clipper, it's still too far north and much much weaker with that system as compared to other models.

[tpweather]

No doubt the models continue to trend north and nothing to argue with at all. CMC was not having one of its normal 2 hits during the winter. So we have a pattern starting later this week that seems to last a couple of weeks. If the extended gfs is correct the week of Thanksgiving is where we see a more defined changed to a winter pattern. We know the gfs can be quick but so far this fall it really has not been that far off. So I like the way the pattern is shaping up and once we get into the week of Thanksgiving the country in general looks to be very busy weather wise.

[dce]

12Z CMC is going to be coming in further north too. So there you go. The best call for now is rain with perhaps some backside flurries barring any further changes of course.

CMC snow map. As always, this really doesn't mean much at this point. Take it with a grain of salt.